Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

PK Basu has 34 years experience covering Asia's economies and markets (equities, fixed income and currencies), including 20 years covering the global economy. He was Chief Economist (SE Asia & India) at Credit Suisse First Boston for 5 years, and Chief Asia (x-Jpn) Economist at Daiwa Securities for a similar period. Among other roles, he was global head of research at Maybank Kim Eng, Malaysia equity research head and chief ASEAN economist at Macquarie, Chief Economist at ICICI Securities, ASEAN economist at UBS and the first chief economist at Khazanah Nasional (where he was co-head of research, and led all agri-business initiatives). PK Basu started his career in the Asia Service of WEFA (Wharton Econometrics) in Philadelphia in 1990, rising to be Director of their Asia Service in June 1994. 
PK's book, "Asia Reborn: A continent rises from the ravages of Colonialism and War to a New Dynamism" won the Tata Literature First Book Award (non-fiction) for 2018. It is the first single chronicle of the modern economic and political history of the whole of Asia (from Iraq and Turkey to Korea and Japan, and everything in between), told from an Asian perspective.

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

India: Clear Policy Error Despite Food-Driven Spurt in Sep'24 Inflation

India Twin Deficit Watch: Improving Trend Persists Despite EPS and Trade Setbacks

India: RBI Extends Rate Policy Error Despite Slow Growth and Prospect of Low Inflation

India Twin Deficit Watch: Fiscal Deficit Far Below FY25 Target, CAD Set to Vanish

Toyota Motor (7203 JP): Scripting an India Success Story with Suzuki Tie Up

India: Relief on Food Inflation Makes an Oct'24 Rate Cut Near-Certain

Hyundai Motor India: Feeling the Heat as SUV Rivals Surge

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Headline CPI inflation stayed near 3.6%YoY for the second consecutive month in Aug'24, and core inflation remained benign at 3.4%YoY. A 25bp rate cut remains certain at the Oct'24 MPC.</li>
<li>Although Sep-Oct'24 inflation is likely to average 5%YoY (because of base effects), the strong monsoon should deliver a bountiful kharif harvest, bringing headline inflation back down to 4%YoY in Jan-Mar'25. </li>
<li>We expect the policy rate to decline by 25bp at each of the next four MPC meetings, to 5.5% by Apr'25. Rate sensitive sectors like banks, property, auto-companies will benefit. </li>
</ul>


Headline CPI inflation stayed near 3.6%YoY for the second consecutive month in Aug'24, and core inflation remained benign at 3.4%YoY. A 25bp rate cut remains certain at the Oct'24 MPC.
Although Sep-Oct'24 inflation is likely to average 5%YoY (because of base effects), the strong monsoon should deliver a bountiful kharif harvest, bringing headline inflation back down to 4%YoY in Jan-Mar'25. 
We expect the policy rate to decline by 25bp at each of the next four MPC meetings, to 5.5% by Apr'25. Rate sensitive sectors like banks, property, auto-companies will benefit. 


India: CPI Inflation Below Target for 2nd Month Signals Rapid Rate Cuts Ahead