Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>Department store sales in 2020 dropped to levels not seen since 1975 and the latest state of emergency has led to more store closures. In some ways, the remaining department stores did well to achieve CY2020 sales only 25% lower than the year before and city centre stores should revive once traffic returns.</p><p>Meanwhile, there are opportunities to rethink how former department store buildings can be redeveloped.</p>

Department store sales in 2020 dropped to levels not seen since 1975 and the latest state of emergency has led to more store closures. In some ways, the remaining department stores did well to achieve CY2020 sales only 25% lower than the year before and city centre stores should revive once traffic returns.Meanwhile, there are opportunities to rethink how former department store buildings can be redeveloped.

Japan's Department Store Sales Drop to 1975 Levels

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>Barney’s New York will close its Shinjuku store at the end of February.</p><p>Although the iconic fashion store had hoped to close only temporarily, Seven &amp; I took the decision  to close permanently due to a variety of factors: the age of the store, the high rent in an area with falling footfall, and the declining popularity of large format stores like Barney’s Shinjuku in general.</p><p>While the store is a tiny part of Seven &amp; I's retail empire, the failure to make Barney's New York an integral part of its business is a reflection of the wider troubles at Seven &amp; I to make any part of its business work as well as Seven Eleven.</p>

Barney’s New York will close its Shinjuku store at the end of February.Although the iconic fashion store had hoped to close only temporarily, Seven &amp; I took the decision  to close permanently due to a variety of factors: the age of the store, the high rent in an area with falling footfall, and the declining popularity of large format stores like Barney’s Shinjuku in general.While the store is a tiny part of Seven &amp; I's retail empire, the failure to make Barney's New York an integral part of its business is a reflection of the wider troubles at Seven &amp; I to make any part of its business work as well as Seven Eleven.

Seven & I to Close Barney’s New York Shinjuku

Isetan Mitsukoshi Holdings Ltd / Equity Bottom-Up

<p>Isetan-Mitsukoshi presents itself as one of the stronger department store businesses but its fractious boardroom battles and u-turns over store closures in the last five years have suggested a company in turmoil – as recent results indicate. The department store continues to talk big on digital solutions but it has an inherent problem: over-dependence on just three flagship stores.</p>

Isetan-Mitsukoshi presents itself as one of the stronger department store businesses but its fractious boardroom battles and u-turns over store closures in the last five years have suggested a company in turmoil – as recent results indicate. The department store continues to talk big on digital solutions but it has an inherent problem: over-dependence on just three flagship stores.

Isetan-Mitsukoshi: Big Losses but Some Plans for the Future

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• BEST &amp; WORST • </strong></p></div><div>
<p>We resume our results &amp; revision updates after a Christmas break as the February/May/ August/November year-end cohort of companies kick off disclosure. Friday's best and worst pair are retailers <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nitori-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20386:1" rel="noopener">Nitori (9843 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/takashimaya-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:370:1" rel="noopener">Takashimaya (8233 JP) </a>although we would note that earnings momentum is fading for the former and bottoming out for the latter. With Nitori mean-reverting from being Overbought in August, Takashimaya has outperformed Nitori by 8% over the last three months. As the impact of COVID wanes by the Sroing, we expect this performance 'gap' to close further in 2021.</p>
<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/180/167/original/2020-12-28_06-14-04.png?1609103740" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="180167"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/180/168/original/2020-12-28_06-16-21.png?1609103792" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="180168"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/180/169/original/2020-12-28_06-22-11.png?1609104143" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="180169"></figure></section><p></p>
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• BEST &amp; WORST • 
We resume our results &amp; revision updates after a Christmas break as the February/May/ August/November year-end cohort of companies kick off disclosure. Friday's best and worst pair are retailers Nitori (9843 JP) and Takashimaya (8233 JP) although we would note that earnings momentum is fading for the former and bottoming out for the latter. With Nitori mean-reverting from being Overbought in August, Takashimaya has outperformed Nitori by 8% over the last three months. As the impact of COVID wanes by the Sroing, we expect this performance 'gap' to close further in 2021.



🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 12/​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​25 - Nitori & Takashimaya

<p>Last year the Japanese fashion market contracted below ¥16 trillion for the first time in more than a decade and this year is proving much, much worse.</p><p>In the last big crises – the 2008 financial shock and 2011 triple disasters – demand also fell dramatically and then recovered. But <strong>this time is different: as well as a fall in demand, the Covid-19 crisis has also led to a marked fall in supply</strong>.</p><p>But there is some good news. Above all, Japanese are not travelling either at home or abroad and they are also eating out less.</p><p><strong>In the seven months to July, the average working household had cumulatively saved a net ¥1.25 million, more than 11 months in both 2018 and 2019 and more than an entire year before 2018.</strong></p><p><strong>Suddenly wallets are full</strong>, which could mean more money to spend on treats – good news for luxury but also any brand or retailing offering something fun to divert from the all bleak news.</p><p>While the short-term outlook remains dark, the medium-term should see both a return to a more stable trading environment and something of a splurge too as people express their relief that it’s all over.</p><p>The following is a complete review of the Japanese apparel/fashion sector including rankings of the top 100 retailers by sales, top by profit, sales growth, and store openings/closures.</p><p><em>This insight is labelled bullish because the Japanese apparel/fashion sector will rebound from the current crisis although the long-term outlook for this sector is stagnant stability rather than significant growth. However, within this, there are significant growth stocks as detailed below.</em></p>

Last year the Japanese fashion market contracted below ¥16 trillion for the first time in more than a decade and this year is proving much, much worse.In the last big crises – the 2008 financial shock and 2011 triple disasters – demand also fell dramatically and then recovered. But this time is different: as well as a fall in demand, the Covid-19 crisis has also led to a marked fall in supply.But there is some good news. Above all, Japanese are not travelling either at home or abroad and they are also eating out less.In the seven months to July, the average working household had cumulatively saved a net ¥1.25 million, more than 11 months in both 2018 and 2019 and more than an entire year before 2018.Suddenly wallets are full, which could mean more money to spend on treats – good news for luxury but also any brand or retailing offering something fun to divert from the all bleak news.While the short-term outlook remains dark, the medium-term should see both a return to a more stable trading environment and something of a splurge too as people express their relief that it’s all over.The following is a complete review of the Japanese apparel/fashion sector including rankings of the top 100 retailers by sales, top by profit, sales growth, and store openings/closures.This insight is labelled bullish because the Japanese apparel/fashion sector will rebound from the current crisis although the long-term outlook for this sector is stagnant stability rather than significant growth. However, within this, there are significant growth stocks as detailed below.

Japan Fashion Retailing Complete Review 2019-20: Pain Now but a Recovery Is Certain

Japan

Isetan Mitsukoshi Holdings Ltd. is a holding company established through a merger of Mitsukoshi and Isetan. The group operates department stores nationwide, selling clothing, foods, household goods, cosmetics and general merchandise.

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Isetan Mitsukoshi Holdings Ltd (3099 JP)

Japan's Department Store Sales Drop to 1975 Levels

Department stores have been hit hard by the current crisis but were struggling before that. As a result, sales have fallen to 1975 levels. Sales...

Michael Causton

Seven & I to Close Barney’s New York Shinjuku

Seven & I has struggled to make any of its acquisitions work. Barney's NY is just one of them along with Sogo Seibu and others. Seven & I should...

Michael Causton

Isetan-Mitsukoshi: Big Losses but Some Plans for the Future

Japanese department store sales are in fallout but Isetan-Mitsukoshi looks worse off than most despite investors thinking otherwise. Its dependence...

Michael Causton

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 12/25 - Nitori & Takashimaya

We resume our results & revision updates after a Christmas break. Friday's best and worst pair are retailers Nitori (9843 JP) and Takashimaya...

Campbell Gunn

Japan Fashion Retailing Complete Review 2019-20: Pain Now but a Recovery Is Certain

The following is a complete, in-depth review of the Japanese apparel/fashion sector covering key trends, rankings of the top 100 by sales and top...

Michael Causton

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Japan's Department Store Sales Drop to 1975 Levels

Department stores have been hit hard by the current crisis but were struggling before that. As a result, sales have fallen to 1975 levels. Sales...

Michael Causton

Seven & I to Close Barney’s New York Shinjuku

Seven & I has struggled to make any of its acquisitions work. Barney's NY is just one of them along with Sogo Seibu and others. Seven & I should...

Michael Causton

Isetan-Mitsukoshi: Big Losses but Some Plans for the Future

Japanese department store sales are in fallout but Isetan-Mitsukoshi looks worse off than most despite investors thinking otherwise. Its dependence...

Michael Causton

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 12/​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​25 - Nitori & Takashimaya

We resume our results & revision updates after a Christmas break. Friday's best and worst pair are retailers Nitori (9843 JP) and Takashimaya...

Campbell Gunn

Japan Fashion Retailing Complete Review 2019-20: Pain Now but a Recovery Is Certain

The following is a complete, in-depth review of the Japanese apparel/fashion sector covering key trends, rankings of the top 100 by sales and top...

Michael Causton

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 12/25 - Nitori & Takashimaya