Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The bear market rally that we were on watch for started last week, confirmed by the bullish reversals on the DAX, Hang Seng, MSCI China (MCHI-US), and China Internet (KWEB-US).</li>
<li>Is this just another bear market rally, or will indexes are able to make a higher low and start a new bull market? Either way, it's a start.</li>
<li>We highlight attractive stocks from a bottoms-up perspective, spanning several Sectors. Over half hail from Japan, where the TOPIX Small index is reversing its downtrend.</li>
</ul>


The bear market rally that we were on watch for started last week, confirmed by the bullish reversals on the DAX, Hang Seng, MSCI China (MCHI-US), and China Internet (KWEB-US).
Is this just another bear market rally, or will indexes are able to make a higher low and start a new bull market? Either way, it's a start.
We highlight attractive stocks from a bottoms-up perspective, spanning several Sectors. Over half hail from Japan, where the TOPIX Small index is reversing its downtrend.


Cautiously Optimistic Following Downtrend Reversals; Japan Continues to Lead; Bottoms-Up Stock Rec's

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>J-Front Retailing, a Japanese department store operator, will announce full-year results on April 11.</li>
<li>We expect FY2/23 guidance to be more optimistic as Japan normalises post COVID. </li>
<li>Pent up demand for luxury goods to drive recovery of department stores. J-Front is still trading below book value.</li>
</ul>


J-Front Retailing, a Japanese department store operator, will announce full-year results on April 11.
We expect FY2/23 guidance to be more optimistic as Japan normalises post COVID. 
Pent up demand for luxury goods to drive recovery of department stores. J-Front is still trading below book value.


J-Front (3086) | Recent Datapoints Point to High-End Shoppers Loosening the Purse Strings

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Nikkei reported yesterday that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)</a> is in final negotiations to sell its underperforming department store business Sogo Seibu, amidst pressure from several of its investors.</li>
<li>The company has indirectly confirmed the news by saying that they are considering changes to Seven &amp; I’s business portfolio including the sale of the Sogo &amp; Seibu business.</li>
<li>The disposal of underperforming department stores could increase the efficiency of capital usage and generate upside to shareholders returns and enable the company to focus on growth through geographic expansion.</li>
</ul>


Nikkei reported yesterday that Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP) is in final negotiations to sell its underperforming department store business Sogo Seibu, amidst pressure from several of its investors.
The company has indirectly confirmed the news by saying that they are considering changes to Seven &amp; I’s business portfolio including the sale of the Sogo &amp; Seibu business.
The disposal of underperforming department stores could increase the efficiency of capital usage and generate upside to shareholders returns and enable the company to focus on growth through geographic expansion.


Seven & I to Sell The Loss Making Department Store Business Amidst Pressure From Investors

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Department stores are desperate to get back on track, having lost both the middle class at home and travellers from overseas. </li>
<li>There have been further squeezes on the middle class in the past 18 months and the <strong>average salary in 2020 stood at ¥4.24 million, just ¥180,000 more than in 1990.</strong>
</li>
<li>As a result, department stores are in a gold rush fervour to climb back upmarket and ply their wares to the rich. The problem is so is everyone else.</li>
</ul>


Department stores are desperate to get back on track, having lost both the middle class at home and travellers from overseas. 
There have been further squeezes on the middle class in the past 18 months and the average salary in 2020 stood at ¥4.24 million, just ¥180,000 more than in 1990.

As a result, department stores are in a gold rush fervour to climb back upmarket and ply their wares to the rich. The problem is so is everyone else.


Japanese Department Stores: Going After the Newly Wealthy

<p>FY2020 was clearly a year when department store executives would have been better to live in an induced coma. Big city stores suffered especially because inbound tourists, their main growth driver of the past few years, disappeared and local shoppers stayed away, although some stores did manage to harness support from Japan’s expanding wealth market to offset the rout a little bit. The good news is that executives pushing for change in the last five years in the face of perennial intransigence are increasingly taking charge and the result should be a leaner, smaller and more clearly defined format that is more overtly upscale.</p>

FY2020 was clearly a year when department store executives would have been better to live in an induced coma. Big city stores suffered especially because inbound tourists, their main growth driver of the past few years, disappeared and local shoppers stayed away, although some stores did manage to harness support from Japan’s expanding wealth market to offset the rout a little bit. The good news is that executives pushing for change in the last five years in the face of perennial intransigence are increasingly taking charge and the result should be a leaner, smaller and more clearly defined format that is more overtly upscale.

Japan's Department Stores: Radical Contraction Still to Come if Sector Is to Survive

Japan

Isetan Mitsukoshi Holdings Ltd. is a holding company established through a merger of Mitsukoshi and Isetan. The group operates department stores nationwide, selling clothing, foods, household goods, cosmetics and general merchandise.

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Isetan Mitsukoshi Holdings Ltd (3099 JP)

Cautiously Optimistic Following Downtrend Reversals; Japan Continues to Lead; Bottoms-Up Stock Rec's

The bear market rally that we were on watch for started last week, confirmed by the bullish reversals on the DAX, Hang Seng, MSCI China $MCHI, and...

Vermilion Research

J-Front (3086) | Recent Datapoints Point to High-End Shoppers Loosening the Purse Strings

J-Front Retailing is a beneficiary of COVID normalisation and eventual resumption of inbound tourism. The restructuring and cost cuts bode well for...

Mark Chadwick

Seven & I to Sell The Loss Making Department Store Business Amidst Pressure From Investors

Nikkei reported yesterday that Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP) is in final negotiations to sell its underperforming department store business Sogo...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Japanese Department Stores: Going After the Newly Wealthy

Japanese department stores are waking up to the fact that the middle class is no longer their natural customer. The renewed focus on the wealthy is...

Michael Causton

Japan's Department Stores: Radical Contraction Still to Come if Sector Is to Survive

Japan's department stores are in trouble and were well before the pandemic but their outlook is much worse now. Major changes are required, not...

Michael Causton

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