Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

India's nominal GDP increased 4.3% YoY in Oct-Dec 2020, although real GDP was only reported to have increased 1% YoY (based on production-side estimates). The implicit GDP deflator thus increased 3.3% YoY -- much more than the average WPI inflation rate of 1.66% YoY during the quarter. Using expenditure-side estimates, nominal GDP grew even faster (+5.3% YoY), although the reported real increase in GDE was only 0.4% YoY -- implying an increase in the GDE deflator of 3.9% YoY. While this appears consistent with the higher CPI inflation rate, the GDE deflator also takes account of the GFCF and net export deflators, neither of which were rising much. So it is likely that the GDP estimates for that quarter will be revised up eventually. The most encouraging aspect of the GDE estimates was that fixed investment spending (GFCF) increased 2.6% YoY in the Oct-Dec 2020 quarter, the first such increase in a year. This suggests that the production-linked incentives (PLI) and sharply-lower corporate tax rates are beginning to spur a revival in investment spending, not just in FDI (which was doing well anyway, but remains a small proportion of overall GFCF).  As investment gains momentum, the additional capacity creation will dampen costs and prices. Additionally, CPI inflation was artificially high in April-November 2020 because of supply disruptions and bottlenecks arising from the strict lockdown in April-June, which only eased gradually in subsequent months. CPI inflation has already eased to 4.06% YoY in January 2021. Compared with the high base in Apr-Nov 2020, CPI inflation is likely to ease toward 3% YoY by June 2021, obliging the RBI to cut its policy rate by 50bp (to 3.5%) by September 2021. We continue to expect a powerful economic recovery to occur in FY2021/22, helped by the low base from a year ago, the slew of fiscal incentives, an acceleration in privatization (which will crowd-in private investment, already enthused by low tax rates) and a surge of public investment. The decline in policy rates will be the icing on the cake, helping to deliver real GDP growth of 13.5% YoY in FY2021/22.

India's nominal GDP increased 4.3% YoY in Oct-Dec 2020, although real GDP was only reported to have increased 1% YoY (based on production-side estimates). The implicit GDP deflator thus increased 3.3% YoY -- much more than the average WPI inflation rate of 1.66% YoY during the quarter. Using expenditure-side estimates, nominal GDP grew even faster (+5.3% YoY), although the reported real increase in GDE was only 0.4% YoY -- implying an increase in the GDE deflator of 3.9% YoY. While this appears consistent with the higher CPI inflation rate, the GDE deflator also takes account of the GFCF and net export deflators, neither of which were rising much. So it is likely that the GDP estimates for that quarter will be revised up eventually. The most encouraging aspect of the GDE estimates was that fixed investment spending (GFCF) increased 2.6% YoY in the Oct-Dec 2020 quarter, the first such increase in a year. This suggests that the production-linked incentives (PLI) and sharply-lower corporate tax rates are beginning to spur a revival in investment spending, not just in FDI (which was doing well anyway, but remains a small proportion of overall GFCF).  As investment gains momentum, the additional capacity creation will dampen costs and prices. Additionally, CPI inflation was artificially high in April-November 2020 because of supply disruptions and bottlenecks arising from the strict lockdown in April-June, which only eased gradually in subsequent months. CPI inflation has already eased to 4.06% YoY in January 2021. Compared with the high base in Apr-Nov 2020, CPI inflation is likely to ease toward 3% YoY by June 2021, obliging the RBI to cut its policy rate by 50bp (to 3.5%) by September 2021. We continue to expect a powerful economic recovery to occur in FY2021/22, helped by the low base from a year ago, the slew of fiscal incentives, an acceleration in privatization (which will crowd-in private investment, already enthused by low tax rates) and a surge of public investment. The decline in policy rates will be the icing on the cake, helping to deliver real GDP growth of 13.5% YoY in FY2021/22.   

India: Easing Inflation Will Oblige RBI to Cut Policy Rates in the Next Half Year

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

*Poor Set Of Results, Which Should Have Been Worse: Standard Chartered Plc (STAN.LN/2888.HK) [STAN] reported 2H20 losses of USD 315 mn, declining USD 1.4 bn (122.5%) HOH as it struggled across the board. Negative operating jaws for STAN are troublesome to say the least, as HOH we note that STAN’s revenues declined USD 1.4 bn (16.0%) whilst expenses increased USD 1.0 bn (20.4%); and*Credit Challenges Are Top Of Mind As Well: STAN had a HOH increase in unmarkable Level 3 assets of (20.1%), and level of net new NPLs during 2H20 amounted to USD 1.0 bn – increasing 23.8% on an annualized basis. By our analysis, STAN should not have cut provisions and instead should have ‘manned-up’and taken an addition USD 4.8 bn in provisions. This is prior to any risk assessment for its increasing level of Level 3 assets. The shortfall represents 10% of stated equity, which begs the question of why it’s paying dividends and buying back shares in this condition.

*Poor Set Of Results, Which Should Have Been Worse: Standard Chartered Plc (STAN.LN/2888.HK) [STAN] reported 2H20 losses of USD 315 mn, declining USD 1.4 bn (122.5%) HOH as it struggled across the board. Negative operating jaws for STAN are troublesome to say the least, as HOH we note that STAN’s revenues declined USD 1.4 bn (16.0%) whilst expenses increased USD 1.0 bn (20.4%); and*Credit Challenges Are Top Of Mind As Well: STAN had a HOH increase in unmarkable Level 3 assets of (20.1%), and level of net new NPLs during 2H20 amounted to USD 1.0 bn – increasing 23.8% on an annualized basis. By our analysis, STAN should not have cut provisions and instead should have ‘manned-up’and taken an addition USD 4.8 bn in provisions. This is prior to any risk assessment for its increasing level of Level 3 assets. The shortfall represents 10% of stated equity, which begs the question of why it’s paying dividends and buying back shares in this condition.     

Edelweiss Financial Services / Equity Bottom-Up

*Negative Operating Performance: Edelweiss Financial Services (EDEL.IN) [Edelweiss] reported yet another consolidated loss of INR 630.0 mn (post minority interest) for FY 3Q21 – declining INR 69.0 mn (12.3%) linked quarter. Excluding the gain on sale of securities, Edelweiss’ core operating results were actually frightening at a loss of INR 4.9 bn – down a further INR 106 mn (2.2%) over the same period. Nothing appears to be going right for Edelweiss, with management now beginning to discuss liquidity metrics; and *Wheels Falling Off The Bus: We are significantly troubled by the enormity of the breakdown in credit, as net new NPLs, by our calculation, increased INR 2.7 bn linked quarter for an annualized rate of growth of 106% - far and away the worst showing of any Indian financial under our coverage. Given the net new NPL increase, we find that loss reserves are light to tune of INR 15.7 bn or 2.3x stated equity of INR 6.9 bn at FY 3Q21.  Negative operating losses coupled with potentially challenged liquidity, and the poor credit cushion could invite regulatory intervention.

*Negative Operating Performance: Edelweiss Financial Services (EDEL.IN) [Edelweiss] reported yet another consolidated loss of INR 630.0 mn (post minority interest) for FY 3Q21 – declining INR 69.0 mn (12.3%) linked quarter. Excluding the gain on sale of securities, Edelweiss’ core operating results were actually frightening at a loss of INR 4.9 bn – down a further INR 106 mn (2.2%) over the same period. Nothing appears to be going right for Edelweiss, with management now beginning to discuss liquidity metrics; and *Wheels Falling Off The Bus: We are significantly troubled by the enormity of the breakdown in credit, as net new NPLs, by our calculation, increased INR 2.7 bn linked quarter for an annualized rate of growth of 106% - far and away the worst showing of any Indian financial under our coverage. Given the net new NPL increase, we find that loss reserves are light to tune of INR 15.7 bn or 2.3x stated equity of INR 6.9 bn at FY 3Q21.  Negative operating losses coupled with potentially challenged liquidity, and the poor credit cushion could invite regulatory intervention. 

Edelweiss Financial Services – The Whole Package

Indiabulls Housing Finance / Equity Bottom-Up

*Quality Quarter: IndiaBulls Housing Finance (IHFL.IN) [IndiaBulls] reported FY 3Q21 results of INR 5.5 bn, increasing INR 2.3 bn (70.7%) linked quarter. Much of the linked quarter improvement can be attributed to net interest income growth resultant of strong loan growth and NIM improvement. Other reasons for the outperformance included both an increase in loan assignment income; adecline in loss provisions; and a decrease in its tax rate; and  *Credit Improving: While the stated NPL figure was higher, we note that due the recovery of INR 3.4 bn that net new NPLs had actually declined INR 572 mn for the quarter for an annualized rate of decline of 11.3% - which is in complete contravention to the Indian financial sector to date. Reserves would appear in-line with risk on and off balance for IndiaBulls – a welcome contradiction to the awful reserve cover at nearly every other Indian financial institution.

*Quality Quarter: IndiaBulls Housing Finance (IHFL.IN) [IndiaBulls] reported FY 3Q21 results of INR 5.5 bn, increasing INR 2.3 bn (70.7%) linked quarter. Much of the linked quarter improvement can be attributed to net interest income growth resultant of strong loan growth and NIM improvement. Other reasons for the outperformance included both an increase in loan assignment income; adecline in loss provisions; and a decrease in its tax rate; and  *Credit Improving: While the stated NPL figure was higher, we note that due the recovery of INR 3.4 bn that net new NPLs had actually declined INR 572 mn for the quarter for an annualized rate of decline of 11.3% - which is in complete contravention to the Indian financial sector to date. Reserves would appear in-line with risk on and off balance for IndiaBulls – a welcome contradiction to the awful reserve cover at nearly every other Indian financial institution. 

IndiaBulls Housing Finance – Sunny Disposition

*Positive Operating Jaws Return: Muthoot Finance (MUTH.IN) [Muthoot] reported FY 3Q21 bottom-line results of INR 9.8 bn, increasing INR 716 mn (7.8%) linked quarter. Results were even better when we exclude gains on the gold mark-up, as Muthoot’s core operating result improved INR 969 mn or 11.3%. Results were driven by positive operating jaws, despite the INR 478 mn or 469% linked quarter increase loss provisions which tracked the break in credit; and*Gold Pricing Could Impact Credit: While robustness gold prices augur well for Muthoot, we are concerned about a reversal in gold pricing which could hinder loan growth and credit quality. We note that net new NPLs amounted to INR 661mn during the quarter, which intimates that the annualized growth rate for Stage 3 loans remains elevated at 44.7% - in line with most of the Indian financial sector. While we agree that the backing of the gold loans has likely amongst the strongest collateral, losses will mount during this international risk-on period or when gold prices reverse. It is for these reasons that we believe reserve cover has fallen short to the tune of INR 2.8 bn – about 25% of FY 3Q21 PBT which isn’t bad relatively speaking.

*Positive Operating Jaws Return: Muthoot Finance (MUTH.IN) [Muthoot] reported FY 3Q21 bottom-line results of INR 9.8 bn, increasing INR 716 mn (7.8%) linked quarter. Results were even better when we exclude gains on the gold mark-up, as Muthoot’s core operating result improved INR 969 mn or 11.3%. Results were driven by positive operating jaws, despite the INR 478 mn or 469% linked quarter increase loss provisions which tracked the break in credit; and*Gold Pricing Could Impact Credit: While robustness gold prices augur well for Muthoot, we are concerned about a reversal in gold pricing which could hinder loan growth and credit quality. We note that net new NPLs amounted to INR 661mn during the quarter, which intimates that the annualized growth rate for Stage 3 loans remains elevated at 44.7% - in line with most of the Indian financial sector. While we agree that the backing of the gold loans has likely amongst the strongest collateral, losses will mount during this international risk-on period or when gold prices reverse. It is for these reasons that we believe reserve cover has fallen short to the tune of INR 2.8 bn – about 25% of FY 3Q21 PBT which isn’t bad relatively speaking.  

India

iShares MSCI India Index ETF is an exchange-traded fund registered in Singapore. The Fund seeks to provide investment results that, before expenses, closely correspond to the performance of the MSCI India Index. The Fund invests all or substantially all of its assets in shares comprising the MSCI India Index in substantially the same weightings as constituted in the underlying index.

iShares MSCI India Index ETF (INDIA SP)

India: Easing Inflation Will Oblige RBI to Cut Policy Rates in the Next Half Year

Nominal GDP was up 5.3%YoY in Oct-Dec 2020, although real GDP rose only 1%YoY. But CPI inflation will likely be below 3%YoY by June, forcing a 50bp...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Standard Chartered - What A Mess

STANDARD CHARTERED: STAN reported 2H20 losses of USD 315 mn, declining 122.5% HOH as it struggled across the board. Negative operating jaws for...

Thomas J. Monaco

Edelweiss Financial Services – The Whole Package

EDELWEISS FINANCIAL SERVICES: Edelweiss reported another loss. We are troubled by the enormity of the breakdown in credit, light loss reserves at...

Thomas J. Monaco

IndiaBulls Housing Finance – Sunny Disposition

INDIABULLS HOUSING FINANCE: IndiaBulls reported a FY 3Q21 linked quarter result increase of 70.7%. Net new NPLs declined at an annualized rate of...

Thomas J. Monaco

Muthoot Finance – Relatively Good

MUTHOOT FINANCE: Muthoot reported a FY 3Q21 7.8% linked quarter results increase. Results were driven by positive operating jaws although...

Thomas J. Monaco