Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Back on the 1st November, Nikolai Levitskii, Russian iron-ore play <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/irc-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20649:1" rel="noopener">IRC (1029 HK)</a>'s chairman and largest shareholder, acquired 4.72% of shares out, lifting his stake above 30%, <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2023/1108/2023110801177.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">triggering an MGO</a>.</li>
<li>The Offer is conditional on Levitskii holding more than 50% of shares out. His intention is to maintain IRC's listing. At the first close, he held 35.77% (5.16% had tendered). </li>
<li>The current spread is 9.2%. MIC, with 16.67% of shares out, has yet to tender. Nor do I expect them to. Plus IRC is on the OFAC sanction list. Avoid.</li>
</ul>


Back on the 1st November, Nikolai Levitskii, Russian iron-ore play IRC (1029 HK)'s chairman and largest shareholder, acquired 4.72% of shares out, lifting his stake above 30%, triggering an MGO.
The Offer is conditional on Levitskii holding more than 50% of shares out. His intention is to maintain IRC's listing. At the first close, he held 35.77% (5.16% had tendered). 
The current spread is 9.2%. MIC, with 16.67% of shares out, has yet to tender. Nor do I expect them to. Plus IRC is on the OFAC sanction list. Avoid.


IRC (1029 HK)'s MBO's MGO: Still An Avoid

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/irc-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20649:1" rel="noopener">Irc Ltd (1029 HK)</a> notes that the offeror (Nikolai Levitskii) and acceptances reached 35.77% at the first closing date, materially short of the 50% minimum acceptance condition. </li>
<li>The offeror has extended the closing date by 39 days (30 business days) to 20 February, the last day the offer can become or be declared unconditional. </li>
<li>The rise in iron ore prices and a light offer pose challenges. The risk/reward profile is unfavourable as the upside (5.4% spread) outweighs the downside (20.5% to the undistributed price).</li>
</ul>



Irc Ltd (1029 HK) notes that the offeror (Nikolai Levitskii) and acceptances reached 35.77% at the first closing date, materially short of the 50% minimum acceptance condition. 
The offeror has extended the closing date by 39 days (30 business days) to 20 February, the last day the offer can become or be declared unconditional. 
The rise in iron ore prices and a light offer pose challenges. The risk/reward profile is unfavourable as the upside (5.4% spread) outweighs the downside (20.5% to the undistributed price).


IRC Limited (1029 HK): Closing Date Extended as the Risk/Reward Turns Unattractive

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/irc-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20649:1" rel="noopener">Irc Ltd (1029 HK)</a> IFA opines that a mandatory conditional offer from Nikolai Levitskii (Chairman and 30.61% shareholder) at HK$0.118 per share is fair and reasonable. </li>
<li>The offer is open, with the first closing date of 12 January 2024. The offer is conditional on the offeror and concert parties representing more than 50% of voting rights. </li>
<li>While the offer is light, satisfying the minimum acceptance condition is possible. The risk/reward profile is favourable as the upside (25.5% spread) outweighs the downside (5.3% to the undistributed price). </li>
</ul>


The Irc Ltd (1029 HK) IFA opines that a mandatory conditional offer from Nikolai Levitskii (Chairman and 30.61% shareholder) at HK$0.118 per share is fair and reasonable. 
The offer is open, with the first closing date of 12 January 2024. The offer is conditional on the offeror and concert parties representing more than 50% of voting rights. 
While the offer is light, satisfying the minimum acceptance condition is possible. The risk/reward profile is favourable as the upside (25.5% spread) outweighs the downside (5.3% to the undistributed price). 


IRC Limited (1029 HK): A Wide Spread as the Conditional Offer Opens

<ul>
<li>I tally 54 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li>Three new deals discussed this week on Smartkarma (possible four): Offers for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alumina-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:939:1" rel="noopener">Alumina (AWC AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/superloop-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23604:1" rel="noopener">Superloop (SLC AU)</a> &amp; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/qantm-intellectual-property" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24317:1" rel="noopener">Qantm Intellectual (QIP AU)</a>; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsonite-international-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12790:1" rel="noopener">Samsonite (1910 HK)</a>'s <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/esr-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27983:1" rel="noopener">ESR (1821 HK)</a>'s rumoured approaches. </li>
<li>Key updates took place on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apm-human-services-internation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34808:1" rel="noopener">APM Human Services Internation (APM AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adbri-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20166:1" rel="noopener">Adbri (ABC AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/csr-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17380:1" rel="noopener">CSR Ltd (CSR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/weiqiao-textile-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3690:1" rel="noopener">Weiqiao Textile Co (2698 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/outsourcing-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7431:1" rel="noopener">Outsourcing Inc (2427 JP)</a>.</li>
</ul>


I tally 54 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
Three new deals discussed this week on Smartkarma (possible four): Offers for Alumina (AWC AU), Superloop (SLC AU) &amp; Qantm Intellectual (QIP AU); Samsonite (1910 HK)'s ESR (1821 HK)'s rumoured approaches. 
Key updates took place on APM Human Services Internation (APM AU), Adbri (ABC AU), CSR Ltd (CSR AU), Weiqiao Textile Co (2698 HK), and Outsourcing Inc (2427 JP).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Alumina, Superloop, Qantm, Samsonite, ESR, APM , Adbri, CSR, Outsourcing

<ul>
<li>For the month of February 2024, 15 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$20bn.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in February was ~33%.</li>
<li>This compares to the average premium for transactions in 2023 (117 transactions), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) of 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.</li>
</ul>


For the month of February 2024, 15 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$20bn.
The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in February was ~33%.
This compares to the average premium for transactions in 2023 (117 transactions), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) of 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.


(Mostly) Asia M&A, Feb 2024: Lawson, Altium, CSR, TCM, Boral, APM, Roland DG, Ssangyong Cement

Hong Kong

IRC Limited is a mineral exploration and production company. The Company is focused on exploring for, developing and operating industrial commodity projects in the Russian Far East and the north-eastern region of China.

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Irc Ltd (1029 HK)

IRC (1029 HK)'s MBO's MGO: Still An Avoid

The current spread is 9.2%. MIC, with 16.67% of shares out, has still not tendered. Nor do I expect them to. Plus IRC is on the OFAC sanction list....

David Blennerhassett

IRC Limited (1029 HK): Closing Date Extended as the Risk/Reward Turns Unattractive

The rise in iron ore prices and a light offer pose challenges. The risk/reward profile is unfavourable as the upside (5.4% spread) outweighs the...

Arun George

IRC Limited (1029 HK): A Wide Spread as the Conditional Offer Opens

Satisfying the minimum acceptance condition carries risk. However, the risk/reward profile is favourable as the upside (25.5% spread) outweighs the...

Arun George

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Alumina, Superloop, Qantm, Samsonite, ESR, APM , Adbri, CSR, Outsourcing

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Feb 2024: Lawson, Altium, CSR, TCM, Boral, APM, Roland DG, Ssangyong Cement

For the month of February, 20 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of ~US$20bn. The average premium for the new deals...

David Blennerhassett

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