Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Happy Sunday from frosty Copenhagen and welcome to our flagship editorial! The underlying demand trends are not strong.</li><li>Running credit card data has been weak in October/November, the credit impulse is worsening and there are signs of actual labour market softening around the otherwise sticky service sectors in the West, yet markets are partying like there is no tomorrow.</li><li>What is causing this disconnect and could it continue into the year-end?</li></ul>

Happy Sunday from frosty Copenhagen and welcome to our flagship editorial! The underlying demand trends are not strong.Running credit card data has been weak in October/November, the credit impulse is worsening and there are signs of actual labour market softening around the otherwise sticky service sectors in the West, yet markets are partying like there is no tomorrow.What is causing this disconnect and could it continue into the year-end?

Steno Signals #76: The Fed Has Lost Control of Liquidity Trends

<ul><li>Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch, where we as always try to dig down into the latest positioning data and give you an overview of what’s moving narrative currently.</li><li>Sentiment and positioning are still skewed towards hopes of a soft landing, with bets being placed on lower yields, a weaker dollar, booming equities and almost non-existent credit spreads – ironically a prime condition for an upcoming recession (which is still our base case for H1 2024).</li><li>General media and story counts are also all about the soft landing vs recession, with the mentionings of “recession” back at pre-COVID levels, while soft landing counts are on the rise, although pulling a bit back from recent highs.</li></ul>

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch, where we as always try to dig down into the latest positioning data and give you an overview of what’s moving narrative currently.Sentiment and positioning are still skewed towards hopes of a soft landing, with bets being placed on lower yields, a weaker dollar, booming equities and almost non-existent credit spreads – ironically a prime condition for an upcoming recession (which is still our base case for H1 2024).General media and story counts are also all about the soft landing vs recession, with the mentionings of “recession” back at pre-COVID levels, while soft landing counts are on the rise, although pulling a bit back from recent highs.

Positioning Watch – All About the Soft Landing Narrative

<ul><li>Happy Sunday and welcome to our weekly flagship editorial.</li><li>The soft landing narrative has seen material tailwinds over the past 6-8 weeks, while the recession narrative is fading fast.</li><li>This is the first prerequisite for an actual recession as a recession never arrives when everyone plans for one.</li></ul>

Happy Sunday and welcome to our weekly flagship editorial.The soft landing narrative has seen material tailwinds over the past 6-8 weeks, while the recession narrative is fading fast.This is the first prerequisite for an actual recession as a recession never arrives when everyone plans for one.

Steno Signals #75 – The 2007/2008 Playbook Is Useful Again

Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

<ul><li>We start off this week’s 5 Things We Watch by having a look at the Ifo survey coming up this Friday in the midst of the Schwarze Null ruling.</li><li>This is followed by talking about US rates and Nvidia earnings and we then move on to talking about the USD while lastly finishing off with gasoline demand.</li><li>Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s government is challenged by the Constitutional Court’s ruling from last week on special fund financing outside the regular budget.</li></ul>

We start off this week’s 5 Things We Watch by having a look at the Ifo survey coming up this Friday in the midst of the Schwarze Null ruling.This is followed by talking about US rates and Nvidia earnings and we then move on to talking about the USD while lastly finishing off with gasoline demand.Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s government is challenged by the Constitutional Court’s ruling from last week on special fund financing outside the regular budget.

5 Things We Watch: IFO, US Rates, Earnings Revisions, USD & Gasoline

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The broad equity market has been on an absolute tear since we discussed in our 10/31/23 Compass how risk/reward favored buyers as key supports were being tested on SPX/QQQ/IWM</li>
<li>Furthermore, we discussed in our 11/7/23 Compass our belief that this was more than just another counter-trend rally, and that it is likely the start of a significant year-end rally.</li>
<li>Bullish developments have only continued; among them includes 3.5-month downtrend reversals on the S&amp;P 500 and QQQ. We expect more upside into year-end and beyond.</li>
</ul>


The broad equity market has been on an absolute tear since we discussed in our 10/31/23 Compass how risk/reward favored buyers as key supports were being tested on SPX/QQQ/IWM
Furthermore, we discussed in our 11/7/23 Compass our belief that this was more than just another counter-trend rally, and that it is likely the start of a significant year-end rally.
Bullish developments have only continued; among them includes 3.5-month downtrend reversals on the S&amp;P 500 and QQQ. We expect more upside into year-end and beyond.


Year-End Rally to Continue?; Riding the Trend Higher; Buys in Education Services and Retailers

United States

Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF tracks the Nasdaq 100 Index includes 100 of the largest non-financial companies by market cap listed on Nasdaq. The Index reflects companies across major industry groups including computer hardware and software, telecommunications, retail/wholesale trade and biotechnology.

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Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (QQQ US)

Steno Signals #76: The Fed Has Lost Control of Liquidity Trends

It seems like the narrative lags the actual price action. 2024 estimates/outlooks are turning upbeat, while positioning is one way traffic towards...

Steno Research

Positioning Watch – All About the Soft Landing Narrative

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch, where we as always try to dig down into the latest positioning data and give you...

Steno Research

Steno Signals #75 – The 2007/2008 Playbook Is Useful Again

The soft landing narrative has seen material tailwinds over the past 6-8 weeks, while the recession narrative is fading fast.

Steno Research

5 Things We Watch: IFO, US Rates, Earnings Revisions, USD & Gasoline

We start off this week’s 5 Things We Watch by having a look at the Ifo survey coming up this Friday in the midst of the Schwarze Null ruling. This...

Steno Research

Year-End Rally to Continue?; Riding the Trend Higher; Buys in Education Services and Retailers

10/31/23 we discussed how risk/reward favored buyers as key $SPX $QQQ $IWM supports were being tested. 11/7/23 we argued it was MORE than just...

Vermilion Research

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