Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Q2'23 marked a turning point with semi sales, memory, silicon wafer &amp; PC shipments PC registering modest QoQ growth while smartphones and server shipments barely missed the cut.</li>
<li>Despite this positive turn of events, the memory segment remains mired in losses and the outlook for foundry is getting worse, not better</li>
<li>The much anticipated second half recovery will be muted at best</li>
</ul>


Q2'23 marked a turning point with semi sales, memory, silicon wafer &amp; PC shipments PC registering modest QoQ growth while smartphones and server shipments barely missed the cut.
Despite this positive turn of events, the memory segment remains mired in losses and the outlook for foundry is getting worse, not better
The much anticipated second half recovery will be muted at best


Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Elan is positioned to win from a coming PC upgrade cycle, which has been indicated by companies such as Micron, Microsoft, Intel, and Asustek among others.</li>
<li>Elan is one of the institutionally most-underheld shares in our universe based on our analysis. Windows 11 adoption has been rising and will accelerate with a PC upgrade cycle.</li>
<li>We've updated our Elan model, we continue to rate the shares Outperform and have a NT$142 target price. Moreover, the stock's past all time remains 65% above current share price.</li>
</ul>


Elan is positioned to win from a coming PC upgrade cycle, which has been indicated by companies such as Micron, Microsoft, Intel, and Asustek among others.
Elan is one of the institutionally most-underheld shares in our universe based on our analysis. Windows 11 adoption has been rising and will accelerate with a PC upgrade cycle.
We've updated our Elan model, we continue to rate the shares Outperform and have a NT$142 target price. Moreover, the stock's past all time remains 65% above current share price.


Elan Microelectronics: Positioned to Win from PC Upgrade Cycle; Massively Underheld by Institutions

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arm-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21816:1" rel="noopener">ARM Holdings (1822695D US)</a> is the world’s most widely licensed and deployed processor. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a> seeks to raise about US$6-10 billion by listing ARM on Nasdaq.</li>
<li>We previously discussed the IPO in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/arm-holdings-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:111238" rel="noopener">ARM Holdings IPO: The Bull Case</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/arm-holdings-ipo-the-bear-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:111471" rel="noopener">ARM Holdings IPO: The Bear Case</a>. </li>
<li>Our valuation analysis suggests that the rumoured target valuation of US$60-70 billion is unjustified. Our base-case DCF valuation is US$44.0 billion. </li>
</ul>



ARM Holdings (1822695D US) is the world’s most widely licensed and deployed processor. Softbank Group (9984 JP) seeks to raise about US$6-10 billion by listing ARM on Nasdaq.
We previously discussed the IPO in ARM Holdings IPO: The Bull Case and ARM Holdings IPO: The Bear Case. 
Our valuation analysis suggests that the rumoured target valuation of US$60-70 billion is unjustified. Our base-case DCF valuation is US$44.0 billion. 


<ul>
<li>NVIDIA Q2’CY23 revenues of $13.51 billion, up 88% QoQ, up 101% YoY, blowing way past the $11 billion guidance midpoint.</li>
<li>Current quarter revenue is expected to be $16.00 billion. This will be a roughly 2.7x increase YoY </li>
<li>Are we in the middle of witnessing a bubble of dot.com era proportions?</li>
</ul>


NVIDIA Q2’CY23 revenues of $13.51 billion, up 88% QoQ, up 101% YoY, blowing way past the $11 billion guidance midpoint.
Current quarter revenue is expected to be $16.00 billion. This will be a roughly 2.7x increase YoY 
Are we in the middle of witnessing a bubble of dot.com era proportions?


NVIDIA. Revenue On Track For 2.7x YoY Growth in Q3'CY23

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arm-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21816:1" rel="noopener">ARM Holdings (1822695D US)</a> is the world’s most widely licensed and deployed processor. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a> seeks to raise about US$6-10 billion by listing ARM on Nasdaq.</li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/arm-holdings-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:111238" rel="noopener">ARM Holdings IPO: The Bull Case</a>, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.</li>
<li>The bear case rests on the deteriorating annualized contract value trajectory, declining ARM-powered chip shipments and revenue, ARM China overhang and red flag transactions involving SoftBank.</li>
</ul>



ARM Holdings (1822695D US) is the world’s most widely licensed and deployed processor. Softbank Group (9984 JP) seeks to raise about US$6-10 billion by listing ARM on Nasdaq.
In ARM Holdings IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
The bear case rests on the deteriorating annualized contract value trajectory, declining ARM-powered chip shipments and revenue, ARM China overhang and red flag transactions involving SoftBank.


United States

Intel Corporation designs, manufactures, and sells computer components and related products.  The Company's major products include microprocessors, chipsets, embedded processors and microcontrollers, flash memory products, graphics products, network and communications products, systems management software, conferencing products, and digital imaging products.

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Intel Corp (INTC US)

Q2'23 Semiconductor Review & Outlook

Q2'23 saw semi sales, memory, silicon wafer & PC shipments PC with modest QoQ growth. Smartphones and server shipments barely missed the cut....

William Keating

Elan Microelectronics: Positioned to Win from PC Upgrade Cycle; Massively Underheld by Institutions

Elan is one of the institutionally most-underheld shares in our universe based on our analysis. Windows 11 adoption and touch usage for PCs has...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

ARM Holdings IPO: Valuation Insights

Our valuation analysis suggests that the rumoured target valuation of US$60-70 billion is unjustified. Our base-case DCF valuation is US$44.0 billion.

Arun George

NVIDIA. Revenue On Track For 2.7x YoY Growth in Q3'CY23

NVIDIA Q2’CY23 $13.51 billion, +88% QoQ, +101% YoY. Q3'CY23 forecast of $16.00 billion, ~2.7x increase YoY. Is this a bubble of dot.com era...

William Keating

ARM Holdings IPO: The Bear Case

The bear case rests on the deteriorating ACV trajectory, declining ARM-powered chip shipments and revenue, ARM China overhang and red flag...

Arun George

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