Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)</a> revenue growth target for 2024F is set at 25% or higher.</li>
<li>TSMC's dominance in the CoWoS market, with nearly 100% share, positions them well.</li>
<li>TSMC's plans to establish a new Fab in Chiayi, Taiwan, reflect the growing end demand.  </li>
</ul>



Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US) revenue growth target for 2024F is set at 25% or higher.
TSMC's dominance in the CoWoS market, with nearly 100% share, positions them well.
TSMC's plans to establish a new Fab in Chiayi, Taiwan, reflect the growing end demand.  


TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Raising Growth Target to 25%+ YoY in 2024F.

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The EU has just launched the World's first AI Act</li>
<li>OpenAI claims the NYT tried to hack ChatGPT in order to prove they used their archive material during  one of its training phases. </li>
<li>Google's licensing of Reddit's content in advance of the latter's impending IPO is a win-win for both, and likely how content creators can expect to be rewarded in the future</li>
</ul>


The EU has just launched the World's first AI Act
OpenAI claims the NYT tried to hack ChatGPT in order to prove they used their archive material during  one of its training phases. 
Google's licensing of Reddit's content in advance of the latter's impending IPO is a win-win for both, and likely how content creators can expect to be rewarded in the future


Generative AI. Innovation Turns To Litigation, Licensing & Regulation

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There are no constituent changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-semiconductor" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32807:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US)</a> ETF in March but there are a lot of float and capping changes.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)</a> is the largest buy while capping results in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)</a> being the largest sell by far.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 8.3% resulting in a round-trip trade of nearly US$3bn. There are a few stocks with more than 0.2x ADV to trade.</li>
</ul>


There are no constituent changes for the VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US) ETF in March but there are a lot of float and capping changes.

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US) is the largest buy while capping results in NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) being the largest sell by far.
Estimated one-way turnover is 8.3% resulting in a round-trip trade of nearly US$3bn. There are a few stocks with more than 0.2x ADV to trade.


MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Over US$1bn to Sell in NVIDIA

Research Coverage of Japanese Listed Companies, Shared Research Inc

Shared Research

Research Coverage of Japanese Listed Companies

Shared Research Inc

Pioneering research coverage of Japanese listed companies. Now customizable and interactive for global institutional investors. Corporate access reimagined.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-electron-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:280:1" rel="noopener">Tokyo Electron (8035 JP)</a> is a global manufacturer of semiconductor production equipment (SPE).</li>
<li>In FY03/23, the company posted revenue of JPY2.2tn, operating profit of JPY617.7bn, recurring profit of JPY625.2bn, and net income attributable to owners of the parent of JPY471.6bn.</li>
<li>Tokyo Electron Limited announced revisions to its full-year earnings forecast for FY03/24.</li>
</ul>



Tokyo Electron (8035 JP) is a global manufacturer of semiconductor production equipment (SPE).
In FY03/23, the company posted revenue of JPY2.2tn, operating profit of JPY617.7bn, recurring profit of JPY625.2bn, and net income attributable to owners of the parent of JPY471.6bn.
Tokyo Electron Limited announced revisions to its full-year earnings forecast for FY03/24.


<ul>
<li>It's the first MoM decline in semi sales since February 2023, but it's a seasonal thing &amp; YoY comparisons continue to grow stronger. </li>
<li>Forecasting 10% YoY growth in 2024 semiconductor sales, in line with TSMC's outlook</li>
<li>$1 trillion in annual semiconductor sales will likely happen in 2032 based on a 7.7% CAGR over the coming decade. </li>
</ul>


It's the first MoM decline in semi sales since February 2023, but it's a seasonal thing &amp; YoY comparisons continue to grow stronger. 
Forecasting 10% YoY growth in 2024 semiconductor sales, in line with TSMC's outlook
$1 trillion in annual semiconductor sales will likely happen in 2032 based on a 7.7% CAGR over the coming decade. 


Global Semi Sales Decline 2.3% MoM In January

United States

Intel Corporation designs, manufactures, and sells computer components and related products.  The Company's major products include microprocessors, chipsets, embedded processors and microcontrollers, flash memory products, graphics products, network and communications products, systems management software, conferencing products, and digital imaging products.

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Intel Corp (INTC US)

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Raising Growth Target to 25%+ YoY in 2024F.

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) aims for 25% revenue growth by 2024, bolstered by CoWoS market dominance and new Fab in Chiayi.

Patrick Liao

Generative AI. Innovation Turns To Litigation, Licensing & Regulation

EU has launched the World's first AI Act. OpenAI claims the NYT hacked ChatGPT in order to prove they used their archive material during its...

William Keating

MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Over US$1bn to Sell in NVIDIA

TSMC is the largest buy and NVIDIA is the largest sell at the SMH rebalance in March. Estimated one-way turnover is 8.3% resulting in a round-trip...

Brian Freitas

Tokyo Electron (8035): Q3 FY03/24 Update

Tokyo Electron is a global manufacturer of semiconductor production equipment, with strong financial performance in FY03/23 and revised earnings...

Shared Research

Global Semi Sales Decline 2.3% MoM In January

The first MoM drop in semi sales since Feb 23, but it's a seasonal thing & YoY comps continue to improve.Forecasting 10% YoY growth in 2024 & $1...

William Keating

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TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Raising Growth Target to 25%+ YoY in 2024F.

​Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) aims for 25% revenue growth by 2024, bolstered by CoWoS market dominance and new Fab in Chiayi.

Patrick Liao

Generative AI. Innovation Turns To Litigation, Licensing & Regulation

EU has launched the World's first AI Act. OpenAI claims the NYT hacked ChatGPT in order to prove they used their archive material during its...

William Keating

MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Over US$1bn to Sell in NVIDIA

TSMC is the largest buy and NVIDIA is the largest sell at the SMH rebalance in March. Estimated one-way turnover is 8.3% resulting in a round-trip...

Brian Freitas

Tokyo Electron (8035): Q3 FY03/24 Update

​Tokyo Electron is a global manufacturer of semiconductor production equipment, with strong financial performance in FY03/23 and revised earnings...

Shared Research

Global Semi Sales Decline 2.3% MoM In January

The first MoM drop in semi sales since Feb 23, but it's a seasonal thing & YoY comps continue to improve.Forecasting 10% YoY growth in 2024 & $1...

William Keating

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) aims for 25% revenue growth by 2024, bolstered by CoWoS market dominance and new Fab in Chiayi.

Tokyo Electron is a global manufacturer of semiconductor production equipment, with strong financial performance in FY03/23 and revised earnings...