HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The 7th national VBP is about to start. The competition would be more intense. Due to the adjustment of bidding rules, it’s more difficult for companies to win at high price.</li>
<li>Recently, the State released an exposure draft stipulating that third-party digital healthcare platforms shall not directly participate in online drug sales activities. We analyzed the impact.</li>
<li>National Health Commission issued a new document to remove the threshold for the qualification of medical institutions on OK lens business, which could lead to accelerated development of this industry.</li>
</ul>


The 7th national VBP is about to start. The competition would be more intense. Due to the adjustment of bidding rules, it’s more difficult for companies to win at high price.
Recently, the State released an exposure draft stipulating that third-party digital healthcare platforms shall not directly participate in online drug sales activities. We analyzed the impact.
National Health Commission issued a new document to remove the threshold for the qualification of medical institutions on OK lens business, which could lead to accelerated development of this industry.


China Healthcare Weekly (Jun.24)-7th National VBP, Online Pharmacy New Policy, OK Lens Rules Relaxed

<ul>
<li>Recently, a new document about online diagnosis and treatment was released, which would bring changes to the business model and profit model of digital healthcare platforms.</li>
<li>The COVID-19 has pushed mRNA vaccines to great heights. However, the next mRNA-based product may not be approved that quick as COVID-19 vaccine. The trough in mRNA may be imminent.</li>
<li>About 20 pharmaceutical companies have drugs included in VBP scope but cannot ensure timely supply due to COVID-19/raw material cost increases/supply chain issues. Investors need to be aware of that.</li>
</ul>


Recently, a new document about online diagnosis and treatment was released, which would bring changes to the business model and profit model of digital healthcare platforms.
The COVID-19 has pushed mRNA vaccines to great heights. However, the next mRNA-based product may not be approved that quick as COVID-19 vaccine. The trough in mRNA may be imminent.
About 20 pharmaceutical companies have drugs included in VBP scope but cannot ensure timely supply due to COVID-19/raw material cost increases/supply chain issues. Investors need to be aware of that.


China Healthcare Weekly (Jun.17)- Digital Healthcare New Policy,mRNA Dilemma, Drug Supply Disruption

Equity Capital Markets

Shanghai Junshi Biosciences  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Junshi’s fatal flaw is not that it is still suffering loss, or that its founders have no medical background, but that the Company is very short of money.</li>
<li>Considering the gloomy prospects of etesevimab/VV116, uncertainties in toripalimab and other late-stage candidates, we remain conservative about Junshi’s commercialization outlook. Junshi's higher valuation than Innovent is not justified.</li>
<li>Together with unfriendly macro environment, we don’t think heavy investment in R&amp;D/MRCT/commercial development could bring high return as expected.Investors need to be rational about Junshi's RMB4 billion private placement plan.</li>
</ul>


Junshi’s fatal flaw is not that it is still suffering loss, or that its founders have no medical background, but that the Company is very short of money.
Considering the gloomy prospects of etesevimab/VV116, uncertainties in toripalimab and other late-stage candidates, we remain conservative about Junshi’s commercialization outlook. Junshi's higher valuation than Innovent is not justified.
Together with unfriendly macro environment, we don’t think heavy investment in R&amp;D/MRCT/commercial development could bring high return as expected.Investors need to be rational about Junshi's RMB4 billion private placement plan.


Shanghai Junshi Bioscience Placement- Junshi Is Having a Hard Time, with Lower than Expected Returns

<ul>
<li>The key task of medical system reform in 2022 is to promote service price reform. There would be overall medical service price increase, but not all hospitals would be benefit.</li>
<li>The primary market financing of medical device CXO industry has become very hot in the past two years, but it could be challenging to form a complete industrial chain.</li>
<li>The lifting of lockdown in Shanghai/Beijing significantly reduces the pressure on supply chain and hospital operations. However, there would still be lockdown in places where positive cases are found. </li>
</ul>


The key task of medical system reform in 2022 is to promote service price reform. There would be overall medical service price increase, but not all hospitals would be benefit.
The primary market financing of medical device CXO industry has become very hot in the past two years, but it could be challenging to form a complete industrial chain.
The lifting of lockdown in Shanghai/Beijing significantly reduces the pressure on supply chain and hospital operations. However, there would still be lockdown in places where positive cases are found. 


China Healthcare Weekly (Jun.10) - Medical Service Price Reform, Medical Device CXO, Lockdown Lifted

<ul>
<li>The blood products VBP results in Guangdong relieved the worries of the market, which provides us with a stable policy environment. Investors would have more confidence in this industry.</li>
<li>Higher burn/market cap ratio would force biotech to dilute larger portion of shares to raise money. Companies with solid R&amp;D may also die due to financing gap in market downturn.</li>
<li>The high market value not commensurate with the real industry development level has been formed.So, in the industry clearing process, there's more bubble in market value needs to be digested. </li>
</ul>


The blood products VBP results in Guangdong relieved the worries of the market, which provides us with a stable policy environment. Investors would have more confidence in this industry.
Higher burn/market cap ratio would force biotech to dilute larger portion of shares to raise money. Companies with solid R&amp;D may also die due to financing gap in market downturn.
The high market value not commensurate with the real industry development level has been formed.So, in the industry clearing process, there's more bubble in market value needs to be digested. 


China Healthcare Weekly (Jun.3) - Blood Products VBP, Burn/Market Cap Ratio, Longer Recovery Cycle

China

Innovent Biologics, Inc. operates as a biopharmaceutical company. The Company develops, manufactures, and distributes monoclonal antibody drug candidates for the treatment of oncology, ophthalmology, autoimmune, cardiovascular, and other diseases. Innovent Biologics serves customers in China.

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Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK)

China Healthcare Weekly (Jun.24)-7th National VBP, Online Pharmacy New Policy, OK Lens Rules Relaxed

7th national VBP is coming,with more competition. New policy that third-party digital healthcare platforms can't directly participate in online...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (Jun.17)- Digital Healthcare New Policy,mRNA Dilemma, Drug Supply Disruption

New policy for digital healthcare will change related platforms' profit model. The trough in mRNA may be imminent, as companies fail due to...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Shanghai Junshi Bioscience Placement- Junshi Is Having a Hard Time, with Lower than Expected Returns

Junshi's Achilles heel is lack of cash and is in difficult time. PD-1/COVID-19 products can't relieve cashflow pressure.The uncertain outlook/macro...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (Jun.10) - Medical Service Price Reform, Medical Device CXO, Lockdown Lifted

China medical system reform will increase overall service price; Medical device CXO is popular but has a long way to go; SH lockdown has lifted,...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (Jun.3) - Blood Products VBP, Burn/Market Cap Ratio, Longer Recovery Cycle

Positive results of blood products VBP restore investors' confidence. After "indiscriminate boom" in China biotech, It's time to show true colors....

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

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