Healthcare equity analyst - emerging & dev mkts, daaimon

Avien Pillay

Healthcare equity analyst - emerging & dev mkts

daaimon

daaimon is an independent research company focusing on healthcare and consumer sectors across developed and emerging markets. We produce insightful research which challenges conventional thinking. In particular, we look for new ideas by testing consensus forecasts and markets expectations.

Equity Bottom-Up

Innovent Biologics Inc / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Dupert, a drug for the special treatment of non-small cell cancer has been approved by the NMPA.</li>
<li>In 2022, China recorded the highest number of new cancer cases, and their exceptional high incidence of smoking is of particular concern.</li>
<li>Innovent’s portfolio of nine oncology drugs is very attractive in the biggest cancer market.</li>
</ul>


Dupert, a drug for the special treatment of non-small cell cancer has been approved by the NMPA.
In 2022, China recorded the highest number of new cancer cases, and their exceptional high incidence of smoking is of particular concern.
Innovent’s portfolio of nine oncology drugs is very attractive in the biggest cancer market.


Innovent Biologics (1801 HK) Adds to Its Oncology Portfolio

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

<ul>
<li>Innovent’s 24H1 product revenue exceeded RMB3.7 billion.Due to anti-corruption campaign, newly marketed PD-1s are unable to be admitted to the hospitals normally, which indirectly promotes the sales performance of sintilimab.</li>
<li>2024 full-year product revenue is estimated to reach RMB7.7 billion. IBI363 has the potential to be blockbuster variety in global markets, which may put Innovent’s valuation on a new level.</li>
<li>Innovent is undervalued if market value is below RMB38.5 billion.If mazdutide is able to contribute RMB10 billion sales, Innovent’s market value would reach about RMB90-100 billion (based on 5 P/S).</li>
</ul>


Innovent’s 24H1 product revenue exceeded RMB3.7 billion.Due to anti-corruption campaign, newly marketed PD-1s are unable to be admitted to the hospitals normally, which indirectly promotes the sales performance of sintilimab.
2024 full-year product revenue is estimated to reach RMB7.7 billion. IBI363 has the potential to be blockbuster variety in global markets, which may put Innovent’s valuation on a new level.
Innovent is undervalued if market value is below RMB38.5 billion.If mazdutide is able to contribute RMB10 billion sales, Innovent’s market value would reach about RMB90-100 billion (based on 5 P/S).


2024 High Conviction Update: Innovent (1801.HK) 24Q2 - Valuation Upside Will Be Further Opened Up

<ul>
<li>Innovent is most well-known as the developer of mazdutide in China, however this is overshadowing a strong portfolio of oncology drugs in a very high growth market.</li>
<li>China’s approach to healthcare is being defined by having the biggest diabetic population, over 4 million new cancer cases per year, and over 100 million living with obesity.</li>
<li>We expect the valuation gap between the two first-to-market GLP-1 drugs, and competition to close. Oncology drug sales and valuations will continue its growth trajectory.</li>
</ul>


Innovent is most well-known as the developer of mazdutide in China, however this is overshadowing a strong portfolio of oncology drugs in a very high growth market.
China’s approach to healthcare is being defined by having the biggest diabetic population, over 4 million new cancer cases per year, and over 100 million living with obesity.
We expect the valuation gap between the two first-to-market GLP-1 drugs, and competition to close. Oncology drug sales and valuations will continue its growth trajectory.


Innovent Biologics(1801 HK)– More than Just a GLP-1 Play

<ul>
<li>Innovent’s 2023 product revenue was RMB5.7 billion. In 2024, product revenue growth would remain strong (e.g. 35% YoY).The main flashpoint for performance is after the approval of mazdutide in 2025.</li>
<li>Innovent has started paving the way for mazdutide more than a year in advance and building various channels.Normally speaking, mazdutide could get the approval in 25Q2. Its CDMO is Asymchem</li>
<li>Share price of Innovent was once dragged down by the CXO plunge due to the US Draft Bill, but unlike CXOs, innovative drugs do not involve supply chain security issues.</li>
</ul>


Innovent’s 2023 product revenue was RMB5.7 billion. In 2024, product revenue growth would remain strong (e.g. 35% YoY).The main flashpoint for performance is after the approval of mazdutide in 2025.
Innovent has started paving the way for mazdutide more than a year in advance and building various channels.Normally speaking, mazdutide could get the approval in 25Q2. Its CDMO is Asymchem
Share price of Innovent was once dragged down by the CXO plunge due to the US Draft Bill, but unlike CXOs, innovative drugs do not involve supply chain security issues.


2024 High Conviction Update: Innovent (1801.HK) - Recent Promising Business Updates and 2024 Outlook

<ul>
<li>23H2 net loss significantly widened as cost control was not as tight as in 23H1. Expenses would remain high in 2024, since Innovent would continue expanding team in CVM field.</li>
<li>Innovent may think that not many players will join the competition of weight loss drug in short-term, but the actual commercialization of mazdutide after launch could be full of uncertainties.</li>
<li>It’s already good for Innovent to be breakeven in 2025. If Innovent breaks even in 2024, it will exceed expectations.Considering major policy shift, Innovent could experience a leap in valuation.</li>
</ul>


23H2 net loss significantly widened as cost control was not as tight as in 23H1. Expenses would remain high in 2024, since Innovent would continue expanding team in CVM field.
Innovent may think that not many players will join the competition of weight loss drug in short-term, but the actual commercialization of mazdutide after launch could be full of uncertainties.
It’s already good for Innovent to be breakeven in 2025. If Innovent breaks even in 2024, it will exceed expectations.Considering major policy shift, Innovent could experience a leap in valuation.


2024 High Conviction Update: Innovent (1801.HK) - Breakeven Is Still on Track Despite Soaring Costs

China

Innovent Biologics, Inc. operates as a biopharmaceutical company. The Company develops, manufactures, and distributes monoclonal antibody drug candidates for the treatment of oncology, ophthalmology, autoimmune, cardiovascular, and other diseases. Innovent Biologics serves customers in China.

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Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK)

Innovent Biologics (1801 HK) Adds to Its Oncology Portfolio

Innovent’s portfolio of nine approved oncology drugs, and pipeline of late-stage oncology drugs makes it a very attractive asset in the biggest...

Avien Pillay

2024 High Conviction Update: Innovent (1801.HK) 24Q2 - Valuation Upside Will Be Further Opened Up

Innovent's revenue growth in 24H1 was commendable. IBI363 has the potential to be blockbuster drug in global markets. Market value to reach above...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Innovent Biologics(1801 HK)– More than Just a GLP-1 Play

Mazdutide's strong results will position it well against the competition, and the valuation gap will narrow. The oncology portfolio will continue...

Avien Pillay

2024 High Conviction Update: Innovent (1801.HK) - Recent Promising Business Updates and 2024 Outlook

Innovent's product revenue growth will remain strong in 2024.The main flashpoint for performance is after the approval of mazdutide in...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

2024 High Conviction Update: Innovent (1801.HK) - Breakeven Is Still on Track Despite Soaring Costs

Loose cost control led to an expansion of losses in 23H2, but the goal of breakeven in 2025 is still within the plan, which could be achieved...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Innovent Biologics (1801 HK) Adds to Its Oncology Portfolio

Innovent’s portfolio of nine approved oncology drugs, and pipeline of late-stage oncology drugs makes it a very attractive asset in the biggest...

Avien Pillay

2024 High Conviction Update: Innovent (1801.HK) 24Q2 - Valuation Upside Will Be Further Opened Up

​Innovent's revenue growth in 24H1 was commendable. IBI363 has the potential to be blockbuster drug in global markets. Market value to reach above...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Innovent Biologics(1801 HK)– More than Just a GLP-1 Play

Mazdutide's strong results will position it well against the competition, and the valuation gap will narrow. The oncology portfolio will continue...

Avien Pillay

2024 High Conviction Update: Innovent (1801.HK) - Recent Promising Business Updates and 2024 Outlook

Innovent's product revenue growth will remain strong in 2024.The main flashpoint for performance is after the approval of mazdutide in...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

2024 High Conviction Update: Innovent (1801.HK) - Breakeven Is Still on Track Despite Soaring Costs

Loose cost control led to an expansion of losses in 23H2, but the goal of breakeven in 2025 is still within the plan, which could be achieved...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Innovent's revenue growth in 24H1 was commendable. IBI363 has the potential to be blockbuster drug in global markets. Market value to reach above...