HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>CanSino’s performance declined in 22H1 due to decreased demand of COVID-19 vaccine. Since we have analyzed our concerns on performance in prior insight, there should be psychological expectations for the decline.</li>
<li>The COVID-19 vaccine business brings CanSino rich cash flow and helps it establish commercial team. Together with MCV2/MCV4/mRNA/PCV13i, it's too early to be completely bearish on CanSino.</li>
<li>The market has exaggerated the impact of performance decline of COVID-19 vaccine on CanSino. Although 2022 is a difficult year, it is a good time to bottom fish this stock.</li>
</ul>


CanSino’s performance declined in 22H1 due to decreased demand of COVID-19 vaccine. Since we have analyzed our concerns on performance in prior insight, there should be psychological expectations for the decline.
The COVID-19 vaccine business brings CanSino rich cash flow and helps it establish commercial team. Together with MCV2/MCV4/mRNA/PCV13i, it's too early to be completely bearish on CanSino.
The market has exaggerated the impact of performance decline of COVID-19 vaccine on CanSino. Although 2022 is a difficult year, it is a good time to bottom fish this stock.


CanSino Biologics (6185.HK/688185.CH) 2022H1 - It's Too Early to Be Completely Bearish on CanSino

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The NHSA issued a Notice on the investigation and registration of dental implant charges and service fees, paving ways for the subsequent centralized procurement, which would affect companies’ profit model.</li>
<li>As the pioneer of commercial insurance,Huimin Insurance is showing a decreasing marginal effect on improving the ability to pay the bills out of NRDL and improving bargaining power of companies.</li>
<li>To improve internationalization, China Biotech can choose to “Fast Follow” differentiated BIC candidates and also start MRCT in Phase I trials. This could be a path to strive for.</li>
</ul>


The NHSA issued a Notice on the investigation and registration of dental implant charges and service fees, paving ways for the subsequent centralized procurement, which would affect companies’ profit model.
As the pioneer of commercial insurance,Huimin Insurance is showing a decreasing marginal effect on improving the ability to pay the bills out of NRDL and improving bargaining power of companies.
To improve internationalization, China Biotech can choose to “Fast Follow” differentiated BIC candidates and also start MRCT in Phase I trials. This could be a path to strive for.


China Healthcare Weekly (Aug19)-Dental Implant VBP,Commercial Insurance,Biotech Internationalization

<ul>
<li>InnoCare was approved to list in the SSE STAR Market, and the Company also released its improving financial performance in 2021. However, the outlook for InnoCare remains challenging and uncertain.</li>
<li>Either orelabrutinib or the pipeline, they don’t have pricing power due to lack of sufficient competitiveness and slower development progress, which means that their commercialization performance is highly uncertain.</li>
<li>There’s no definite commercialization outlook for InnoCare, with a far distance from becoming a biopharma. InnoCare was overvalued and could be attractive if the market value could be 50% off.</li>
</ul>


InnoCare was approved to list in the SSE STAR Market, and the Company also released its improving financial performance in 2021. However, the outlook for InnoCare remains challenging and uncertain.
Either orelabrutinib or the pipeline, they don’t have pricing power due to lack of sufficient competitiveness and slower development progress, which means that their commercialization performance is highly uncertain.
There’s no definite commercialization outlook for InnoCare, with a far distance from becoming a biopharma. InnoCare was overvalued and could be attractive if the market value could be 50% off.


InnoCare Pharma Ltd (9969.HK) - Lack of Clear Commercialization Prospects

<ul>
<li>We analyzed both the strength and the concerns about the core and key candidates in the pipeline.</li>
<li>We also analyzed the concerns about the valuation growth potential due to the strategy that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keymed-biosciences-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33011:1" rel="noopener">Keymed Biosciences Inc (2162 HK)</a> chose.</li>
<li>For trading strategy, opportunities occur when the share price goes down,and then take profits when it goes up, but it is not recommended to hold it for a long time.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed both the strength and the concerns about the core and key candidates in the pipeline.
We also analyzed the concerns about the valuation growth potential due to the strategy that Keymed Biosciences Inc (2162 HK) chose.
For trading strategy, opportunities occur when the share price goes down,and then take profits when it goes up, but it is not recommended to hold it for a long time.


Keymed Biosciences (2162.HK) - The Pipeline, the Concerns on Valuation Growth & The Trading Strategy

Industry viewpoints:<ul>
<li>Last week, seven provinces jointly decided to carry out centralized procurement of pacemakers.</li>
<li>The General Office of the State Council issued a document about the reform of the salary system in public hospitals.</li>
<li>In fact, for many companies in China, there is still a lack of “M&amp;A culture”.</li>
</ul>Company news: News about the updated progress on new drugs of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beigene-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27352:1" rel="noopener">BeiGene Ltd (6160 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/innovent-biologics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27452:1" rel="noopener">Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/innocare-pharma-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28355:1" rel="noopener">InnoCare Pharma Ltd (9969 HK)</a>.Market review:Last week, stock price for healthcare sector in A share decreased 1.33%, while CSI 300 increased 0.56% over the same period of time.Risk disclosure:Policy risk, R&amp;D risk, Company risk and COVID-19 risk.

Industry viewpoints:
Last week, seven provinces jointly decided to carry out centralized procurement of pacemakers.
The General Office of the State Council issued a document about the reform of the salary system in public hospitals.
In fact, for many companies in China, there is still a lack of “M&amp;A culture”.
Company news: News about the updated progress on new drugs of BeiGene Ltd (6160 HK), Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK) and InnoCare Pharma Ltd (9969 HK).Market review:Last week, stock price for healthcare sector in A share decreased 1.33%, while CSI 300 increased 0.56% over the same period of time.Risk disclosure:Policy risk, R&amp;D risk, Company risk and COVID-19 risk.

China Healthcare Weekly (Oct.22) - VBP On Pacemakers, Salary System Reform, Lack of M&A Culture

China

InnoCare Pharma Limited researches, develops, manufactures, and distributes pharmaceuticals. The Company produces antibiotic drugs, respiratory drugs, cardiovascular drugs, vitamin tablets, health care drugs, and other related products. InnoCare Pharma markets its products throughout China.

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InnoCare Pharma Ltd (9969 HK)

CanSino Biologics (6185.HK/688185.CH) 2022H1 - It's Too Early to Be Completely Bearish on CanSino

The market has exaggerated the impact of performance decline of COVID-19 vaccine on CanSino. Although 2022 is a difficult year, considering MCV2...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (Aug19)-Dental Implant VBP,Commercial Insurance,Biotech Internationalization

Dental implant VBP will affect companies' profit model/valuation elasticity. Commercial medical insurance faces challenges. China Biotech's...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang