New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Infratil (IFT) released a brief statement announcing 110MW of new contracts for Canberra Data Centres (CDC) signed since its October update.</li><li>These 110MW represent ~50% of total existing utilised capacity, and should be seen in conjunction with CDC's update in October when it announced it had commenced construction of 265MW, doubling its capacity.</li><li>Put together these two announcements speak to the still very strong, multi-year growth CDC is seeing. </li></ul>

Infratil (IFT) released a brief statement announcing 110MW of new contracts for Canberra Data Centres (CDC) signed since its October update.These 110MW represent ~50% of total existing utilised capacity, and should be seen in conjunction with CDC's update in October when it announced it had commenced construction of 265MW, doubling its capacity.Put together these two announcements speak to the still very strong, multi-year growth CDC is seeing. 

Infratil -  Contract Demand Continues; Growth De-Risked

<ul><li>Infratil (IFT) reported an in-line 1H24 result, with expected strong growth from key portfolio companies CDC and One NZ, which together make up over half of IFT's value.</li><li>FY24 proportionate EBITDA guidance was modestly upgraded without making any meaningful net changes to portfolio company guidance.</li><li>We believe the upgrade primarily relates to increased confidence for IFT that One NZ will deliver towards the upper end of its guidance.</li></ul>

Infratil (IFT) reported an in-line 1H24 result, with expected strong growth from key portfolio companies CDC and One NZ, which together make up over half of IFT's value.FY24 proportionate EBITDA guidance was modestly upgraded without making any meaningful net changes to portfolio company guidance.We believe the upgrade primarily relates to increased confidence for IFT that One NZ will deliver towards the upper end of its guidance.

Infratil - One NZ Delivering Growth but No Cash, Yet

<ul><li>Infratil (IFT) is due to report its 1H24 result on Thursday, 16 November.</li><li>IFT stated at its AGM in August that 1Q24 trading had been strong from its key companies (likely CDC and One NZ), and it gave IFT confidence that FY24 earnings are tracking towards the top end of its guidance range.</li><li>We believe the focus of the result will be on: (1) CDC outlook comments, (2) margin improvement at One NZ, (3) possible independent valuation update of Longroad, (4) interest costs (and 'look through' debt levels). </li></ul>

Infratil (IFT) is due to report its 1H24 result on Thursday, 16 November.IFT stated at its AGM in August that 1Q24 trading had been strong from its key companies (likely CDC and One NZ), and it gave IFT confidence that FY24 earnings are tracking towards the top end of its guidance range.We believe the focus of the result will be on: (1) CDC outlook comments, (2) margin improvement at One NZ, (3) possible independent valuation update of Longroad, (4) interest costs (and 'look through' debt levels). 

Infratil - CDC Outlook and One NZ Margins in Focus

<ul><li>We walk away from Infratil's (IFT) Longroad investor day with three main takeaways. (1) Its target to deliver ~1.5GW annually over the next four to five years seems highly credible.</li><li>Pipeline for 2024 and 2025 is ahead of target and 1.5GW seems more of a choice not to overextend than the stretch target we initially viewed it as.</li><li>(2) On top of the base investment tax credit, Longroad is likely to access a meaningful level of additional credits, which could be worth up to high, single digits, additional IRRs on some projects. </li></ul>

We walk away from Infratil's (IFT) Longroad investor day with three main takeaways. (1) Its target to deliver ~1.5GW annually over the next four to five years seems highly credible.Pipeline for 2024 and 2025 is ahead of target and 1.5GW seems more of a choice not to overextend than the stretch target we initially viewed it as.(2) On top of the base investment tax credit, Longroad is likely to access a meaningful level of additional credits, which could be worth up to high, single digits, additional IRRs on some projects. 

Infratil - The Longroad to Value Realisation Is Heating Up

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Auckland Intl Airport / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Auckland City Council plans to sell 7% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/auckland-intl-airport-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:597:1" rel="noopener">Auckland Intl Airport (AIA NZ)</a>  to fund its budget requirements for 2023-24.</li>
<li>Auckland City Mayor has been talking about selling the stake since at least Dec 2022 and hence, the deal is already very well flagged.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the possible placement and other deal dynamics.</li>
</ul>


Auckland City Council plans to sell 7% of Auckland Intl Airport (AIA NZ)  to fund its budget requirements for 2023-24.
Auckland City Mayor has been talking about selling the stake since at least Dec 2022 and hence, the deal is already very well flagged.
In this note, we will talk about the possible placement and other deal dynamics.


Auckland Airport Possible Placement - Will Be Very Well Flagged US$540m Block

New Zealand

Infratil Limited is an infrastructure investment company. The Company invests in airports, energy such as renewable and waste-energy, and public transportation.

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Infratil Ltd (IFT NZ)

Infratil - Contract Demand Continues; Growth De-Risked

Infratil (IFT) released a brief statement announcing 110MW of new contracts for Canberra Data Centres (CDC) signed since its October update.

Forsyth Barr

Infratil - One NZ Delivering Growth but No Cash, Yet

Infratil (IFT) reported an in-line 1H24 result, with expected strong growth from key portfolio companies CDC and One NZ, which together make up...

Forsyth Barr

Infratil - CDC Outlook and One NZ Margins in Focus

We believe the focus of the result will be on: (1) CDC outlook comments, (2) margin improvement at One NZ, (3) possible independent valuation...

Forsyth Barr

Infratil - The Longroad to Value Realisation Is Heating Up

We walk away from Infratil's (IFT) Longroad investor day with three main takeaways. (1) Its target to deliver ~1.5GW annually over the next four to...

Forsyth Barr

Auckland Airport Possible Placement - Will Be Very Well Flagged US$540m Block

Auckland Airport just reported its full year results, this in effect frees its largest shareholder, Auckland City Council to progress with its...

Sumeet Singh

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