European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Industrivärden offers cost-efficient, long-term exposure to Swedish industrial blue chips, with a high-quality balance sheet and 21% upside potential to our NAV-based target price of SEK 380.2.</li>
<li>While the portfolio remains concentrated in five core holdings, recent underperformance has opened a value gap; Volvo and Sandvik remain key drivers of upside in a cyclical rebound.</li>
<li>The current 5.5% NAV discount is below historical norms, but insider buying and improved fundamentals suggest scope for re-rating as market sentiment stabilizes around Industrivärden’s core assets.</li>
</ul>


Industrivärden offers cost-efficient, long-term exposure to Swedish industrial blue chips, with a high-quality balance sheet and 21% upside potential to our NAV-based target price of SEK 380.2.
While the portfolio remains concentrated in five core holdings, recent underperformance has opened a value gap; Volvo and Sandvik remain key drivers of upside in a cyclical rebound.
The current 5.5% NAV discount is below historical norms, but insider buying and improved fundamentals suggest scope for re-rating as market sentiment stabilizes around Industrivärden’s core assets.


Industrivärden's Q1 2025: NAV Evolution, Discount, Target NAV, Replication

<ul>
<li>NAV of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/industrivarden-ab-8f0a0f6c-a595-41f6-a032-9b4820474704" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43732:1" rel="noopener">Industrivarden (INDUC SS)</a> was c. SEK 160 bn (SEK 370/share) on December 31. NAV increased by 6% during FY 2024. 5-Y total return 78% (OMX30, 64%).</li>
<li>Industrivärden C shares are trading at a 3.9% discount to NAV (vs. 7.4% average for last 5-years). It seems risky to bet on a further discount reduction, rather a reversal.</li>
<li>My target NAV is SEK 171 bn. My TP for the C shares of Industrivärden, assuming a 5% discount to NAV, is SEK 376.5 (4.5% downside).</li>
</ul>


NAV of Industrivarden (INDUC SS) was c. SEK 160 bn (SEK 370/share) on December 31. NAV increased by 6% during FY 2024. 5-Y total return 78% (OMX30, 64%).
Industrivärden C shares are trading at a 3.9% discount to NAV (vs. 7.4% average for last 5-years). It seems risky to bet on a further discount reduction, rather a reversal.
My target NAV is SEK 171 bn. My TP for the C shares of Industrivärden, assuming a 5% discount to NAV, is SEK 376.5 (4.5% downside).


Industrivärden's FY 2024: NAV Evolution, Discount, Target NAV, Replication

<ul>
<li>NAV of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/industrivarden-ab-8f0a0f6c-a595-41f6-a032-9b4820474704" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43732:1" rel="noopener">Industrivarden (INDUC SS)</a> was SEK 162.8 bn (SEK 377/share) on September 30. NAV increased by 8% during first nine months of 2024. 5-Y total return 96.3% (OMX30, 77%).</li>
<li>Industrivärden C shares are trading at a 2.3% discount to NAV (vs. 7.9% average for last 5-years). It seems risky to bet on a further discount reduction, rather a reversal.</li>
<li>My target NAV is SEK 169,667 million million. My TP for the C shares of Industrivärden, assuming a 5% discount to NAV, is SEK 373.2 (3% upside).</li>
</ul>


NAV of Industrivarden (INDUC SS) was SEK 162.8 bn (SEK 377/share) on September 30. NAV increased by 8% during first nine months of 2024. 5-Y total return 96.3% (OMX30, 77%).
Industrivärden C shares are trading at a 2.3% discount to NAV (vs. 7.9% average for last 5-years). It seems risky to bet on a further discount reduction, rather a reversal.
My target NAV is SEK 169,667 million million. My TP for the C shares of Industrivärden, assuming a 5% discount to NAV, is SEK 373.2 (3% upside).


Industrivärden's Q3: NAV Evolution, (Low) Discount, Target NAV, Replication

<ul>
<li>Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos didn't show a clear trend during March. Discounts: C.F.Alba, 14.9% as of 31 March (vs 14.1% as of 28 February); GBL, 37.6% (vs. 38.7%);</li>
<li>Heineken Holding, 11.2% (vs. 13%); Industrivärden C, 2.9% (vs. 5.1%); Investor B, 4.2% (vs. 2.3%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 31.9% (vs. 38.1%); Rio DLC 21.7% (vs. 17%). Vivendi 40.1% (vs. 38.7%). </li>
<li>What seems interesting (unchanged views): Porsche SE vs. listed assets and the Rio DLC (long RIO LN/short RIO AU).</li>
</ul>


Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos didn't show a clear trend during March. Discounts: C.F.Alba, 14.9% as of 31 March (vs 14.1% as of 28 February); GBL, 37.6% (vs. 38.7%);
Heineken Holding, 11.2% (vs. 13%); Industrivärden C, 2.9% (vs. 5.1%); Investor B, 4.2% (vs. 2.3%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 31.9% (vs. 38.1%); Rio DLC 21.7% (vs. 17%). Vivendi 40.1% (vs. 38.7%). 
What seems interesting (unchanged views): Porsche SE vs. listed assets and the Rio DLC (long RIO LN/short RIO AU).


Selected European HoldCos and DLC: March 2025 Report, Adding Vivendi

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>
Couche-Tard execs do the rounds in Tokyo, complaining about not being able to do the rounds. This sounds like they are trying to make themselves sound nice. For now</li>
<li>First the low-balled VTOs for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/advanced-info-service-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:947:1" rel="noopener">AIS (ADVANC TB)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thaicom-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18019:1" rel="noopener">Thaicom (THCOM TB)</a>. Then the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intouch-holdings-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17638:1" rel="noopener">Intouch (INTUCH TB)</a>/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gulf-energy-development-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26038:1" rel="noopener">Gulf Energy (GULF TB)</a> amalgamation. Then, arguably, the next unorthodox development will take place.</li>
<li>Investors buying <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samty-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43711:1" rel="noopener">SAMTY HOLDINGS (187A JP)</a> in size may withhold shares, either they'll try to become the fulcrum investor to get into the Bidco OR they will try for a bump.</li>
</ul>



Couche-Tard execs do the rounds in Tokyo, complaining about not being able to do the rounds. This sounds like they are trying to make themselves sound nice. For now
First the low-balled VTOs for AIS (ADVANC TB) and Thaicom (THCOM TB). Then the Intouch (INTUCH TB)/Gulf Energy (GULF TB) amalgamation. Then, arguably, the next unorthodox development will take place.
Investors buying SAMTY HOLDINGS (187A JP) in size may withhold shares, either they'll try to become the fulcrum investor to get into the Bidco OR they will try for a bump.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Seven & I/Couche-Tard, Intouch, SAMTY, Korea Zinc/Young Poong

Sweden

Industrivarden AB is an investment company.  The Company's holdings consists of a portfolio of listed Nordic industrial companies.

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Industrivarden (INDUC SS)

Industrivärden's Q1 2025: NAV Evolution, Discount, Target NAV, Replication

Industrivärden offers long-term exposure to Swedish industrial blue chips with potential for upside as market sentiment stabilizes and core assets...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Industrivärden's FY 2024: NAV Evolution, Discount, Target NAV, Replication

Industrivarden's NAV increased by 6% in FY 2024, with a target NAV of SEK 171 bn. C shares trading at a 3.9% discount to NAV, TP for C shares at...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Industrivärden's Q3: NAV Evolution, (Low) Discount, Target NAV, Replication

NAV of Industrivarden (INDUC SS) was SEK 162.8 bn (SEK 377/share) on September 30. NAV increased by 8% during first nine months of 2024. 5-Y total...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: March 2025 Report, Adding Vivendi

March discounts to NAV of covered holdcos showed no clear trend. Interesting points include Porsche SE vs. listed assets and Rio DLC (long RIO LN...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Last Week in Event SPACE: Seven & I/Couche-Tard, Intouch, SAMTY, Korea Zinc/Young Poong

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Industrivärden's Q1 2025: NAV Evolution, Discount, Target NAV, Replication

​Industrivärden offers long-term exposure to Swedish industrial blue chips with potential for upside as market sentiment stabilizes and core assets...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Industrivärden's FY 2024: NAV Evolution, Discount, Target NAV, Replication

​Industrivarden's NAV increased by 6% in FY 2024, with a target NAV of SEK 171 bn. C shares trading at a 3.9% discount to NAV, TP for C shares at...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Industrivärden's Q3: NAV Evolution, (Low) Discount, Target NAV, Replication

NAV of Industrivarden (INDUC SS) was SEK 162.8 bn (SEK 377/share) on September 30. NAV increased by 8% during first nine months of 2024. 5-Y total...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: March 2025 Report, Adding Vivendi

​March discounts to NAV of covered holdcos showed no clear trend. Interesting points include Porsche SE vs. listed assets and Rio DLC (long RIO LN...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Last Week in Event SPACE: Seven & I/Couche-Tard, Intouch, SAMTY, Korea Zinc/Young Poong

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Industrivärden offers long-term exposure to Swedish industrial blue chips with potential for upside as market sentiment stabilizes and core assets...

Industrivarden's NAV increased by 6% in FY 2024, with a target NAV of SEK 171 bn. C shares trading at a 3.9% discount to NAV, TP for C shares at...

March discounts to NAV of covered holdcos showed no clear trend. Interesting points include Porsche SE vs. listed assets and Rio DLC (long RIO LN...