European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Jesús is an Insight Provider (Event-driven) on the Smartkarma network, where he looks across sectors at opportunities arising from securities mispricing (both credit and equity), share classes, bid announcements, prospective bids, and special situations. He has served as Economic and Business Advisor at the Spanish Congress in Madrid. Prior to that, he has worked in the City of London: as a Credit Analyst at Bloomberg; Event-driven associate at former boutique European Research; and doubled as Special Situations and Equity-linked VP (convertible bonds) at Merrill Lynch. Jesús has an MBA from the London Business School, a BA (Hons.) degree in Economics from the Complutense University in Madrid, and a BA (Hons.) in Law from U.N.E.D., also in Madrid.

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: September'24 Report

Industrivärden: H1 Results, NAV Evolution and Discount

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: August'24 Report

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: July-Aug. 9 '24 Report

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>NAV of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/industrivarden-ab-8f0a0f6c-a595-41f6-a032-9b4820474704" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43732:1" rel="noopener">Industrivarden (INDUC SS)</a> was SEK 162.8 bn (SEK 377/share) on September 30. NAV increased by 8% during first nine months of 2024. 5-Y total return 96.3% (OMX30, 77%).</li>
<li>Industrivärden <strong>C shares are trading at a 2.3% discount to NAV</strong> (vs. 7.9% average for last 5-years). It seems risky to bet on a further discount reduction, rather a reversal.</li>
<li>My target NAV is SEK 169,667 million million. My TP for the C shares of Industrivärden, assuming a 5% discount to NAV, is SEK 373.2 (3% upside).</li>
</ul>


NAV of Industrivarden (INDUC SS) was SEK 162.8 bn (SEK 377/share) on September 30. NAV increased by 8% during first nine months of 2024. 5-Y total return 96.3% (OMX30, 77%).
Industrivärden C shares are trading at a 2.3% discount to NAV (vs. 7.9% average for last 5-years). It seems risky to bet on a further discount reduction, rather a reversal.
My target NAV is SEK 169,667 million million. My TP for the C shares of Industrivärden, assuming a 5% discount to NAV, is SEK 373.2 (3% upside).


Industrivärden's Q3: NAV Evolution, (Low) Discount, Target NAV, Replication