Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There could be 18 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 28 December.</li>
<li>If all changes are on expected lines, one-way turnover is estimated at 58.2% and that will result in a one-way trade of INR 20bn (US$240m).</li>
<li>Since July, the potential adds to the index have outperformed the index and the potential deletes by a big margin. Momentum could keep the outperformance going till implementation date.</li>
</ul>


There could be 18 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 28 December.
If all changes are on expected lines, one-way turnover is estimated at 58.2% and that will result in a one-way trade of INR 20bn (US$240m).
Since July, the potential adds to the index have outperformed the index and the potential deletes by a big margin. Momentum could keep the outperformance going till implementation date.


NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance Preview: 58% Turnover & Strong Momentum

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/juniper-hotels" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40186:1" rel="noopener">Juniper Hotels</a> (JH) is looking to raise up to US$217m in its upcoming India IPO.</li>
<li>Juniper Hotels is the largest owner by no. of keys of Hyatt affiliated hotels in India as of 2Q23 (30th Jun 23), according to Horwath.</li>
<li>The company is jointly held by Saraf Hotels and its affiliate, Juniper Investments and Two Seas Holdings (an indirect subsidiary of Hyatt Hotels Corporation).</li>
</ul>



Juniper Hotels (JH) is looking to raise up to US$217m in its upcoming India IPO.
Juniper Hotels is the largest owner by no. of keys of Hyatt affiliated hotels in India as of 2Q23 (30th Jun 23), according to Horwath.
The company is jointly held by Saraf Hotels and its affiliate, Juniper Investments and Two Seas Holdings (an indirect subsidiary of Hyatt Hotels Corporation).


Juniper Hotels Pre-IPO - Has Been Recovering Well

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Our POW calls delivered an excellent Monthly strike rate of 84% in Oct’23.</li><li>Calls that successfully achieved their target were Nestle India (~10%), Aptus Value Housing Finance (10%), and Equitas Small Finance Bank (10%).</li><li>ICICI Bank LtdAxis Alpha reported an astounding monthly strike rate of 80% in Oct’23.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Our POW calls delivered an excellent Monthly strike rate of 84% in Oct’23.Calls that successfully achieved their target were Nestle India (~10%), Aptus Value Housing Finance (10%), and Equitas Small Finance Bank (10%).ICICI Bank LtdAxis Alpha reported an astounding monthly strike rate of 80% in Oct’23.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Axis Research Scorecard Report for Oct 2023

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In our prior EM Strategy (August 7, 2023) we discussed how MSCI EM (EEM-US) was near major 1+ year resistance at $42.</li>
<li>After being unable to break out, EEM-US consolidation has continued, and is again approaching major 10.5-month support at $37-$37.50, which has been our important line-in-the-sand throughout 2023.</li>
<li>As long as EEM-US is above $37, we are buyers on this pullback.</li>
</ul>


In our prior EM Strategy (August 7, 2023) we discussed how MSCI EM (EEM-US) was near major 1+ year resistance at $42.
After being unable to break out, EEM-US consolidation has continued, and is again approaching major 10.5-month support at $37-$37.50, which has been our important line-in-the-sand throughout 2023.
As long as EEM-US is above $37, we are buyers on this pullback.


MSCI EM Index Approaching 10.5-Month Support; Remain Overweight India; Many EM Buys

Alibaba Group Holding  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.</li>
<li>In the IPO space, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kokusai-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40152:1" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)</a> filed for it Japan listing, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/midea-group-co-ltd-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16185:1" rel="noopener">Midea Group Co Ltd A (000333 CH)</a> continued to work towards its H-share listing.</li>
<li>In the placement space, there were no major deals this week apart from Blue Star and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sheela-foam-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28073:1" rel="noopener">Sheela Foam Ltd (SFL IN)</a>. </li>
</ul>


Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
In the IPO space, Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) filed for it Japan listing, while Midea Group Co Ltd A (000333 CH) continued to work towards its H-share listing.
In the placement space, there were no major deals this week apart from Blue Star and Sheela Foam Ltd (SFL IN). 


ECM Weekly (24th Sep 2023) - Cainiao, J&T, Midea, Kokusai, Seoul Guarantee, Barito, Integral, DPC

India

Jubilant Foodworks Ltd. owns and operates fast food chains. The Company offers donuts, baked goods, coffee, bagels, muffin, fruit milkshakes, smoothies, tea, sandwiches, pizza, and beverages. Jubilant Foodworks serves its products to customers throughout India.

EIH Limited owns and operates luxury hotels and resorts in India under the name "Oberoi."  The Company also manages a mid-price hotel chain in India, in addition to hotels in Egypt, Australia, Sri Lanka, Indonesia and Saudi Arabia.

Thomas Cook (India) Ltd. operates as an authorized dealer in foreign exchange and as a travel agent. The Company also offers packaged tours, cargo services and travel related insurance. Thomas Cook (India) has offices and foreign exchange counters at various international airports in major cities in India.

Mahindra Holidays & Resorts India Ltd. provides leisure hospitality. The Company offers family holidays with a range of services through vacation memberships. Mahindra Holidays gives its members the choice to stay at resorts with furnished accommodations, such as apartments and cottages, and resort amenities, such as restaurants, kids clubs, and other activities.

Westlife Development Limited is an operating-cum-investment company that puts up and operates quick service restaurants. The Company, through its subsidiary, operates fast food franchise restaurants across western and southern India.

Lemon Tree Hotels Limited owns and operates a chain of hotels and resorts. The Company offers room accommodations, resorts, transportation, swimming pools, on-site restaurants, meeting rooms, fitness gym, and spa facilities. Lemon Tree Hotels serves customers in India.

India Tourism Development Corp Ltd (known as ITDC) develops tourism infrastructure and promotes India  as a tourist destination. ITDC provides tourism services including accommodation, catering, travel-related services, event management, publicity, hotel consultancy, duty free shops, in-house travel agency, entertainment and shopping.

Wonderla Holidays Limited owns and operates two amusement parks in Kochi and Bangalore, India.

Delta Corp Limited a diversified business group having a presence in the entertainment and gaming, real estate business in India and Kenya. The Company's business includes offshore casinos, and real estate consulting & development.

Adlabs Entertainment, Ltd. operates a theme park. The Company manages a theme park with rides, shopping, dining, accommodation, and other entertainment services. Adlabs Entertainment serves customers near Mumbai, India.

Genting Singapore Limited, through its subsidiaries, develops resort properties as well as operates casinos. The Company has casinos and integrated resorts in different parts of the world, including Australia, the Americas, Malaysia, the Philippines and the United Kingdom.

MGM China Holdings Ltd. owns a luxury resort, hotel, and casino located in Macau. The Company is also exploring other casino gaming development opportunities in Macau.

Wynn Resorts, Limited owns and operates luxury hotels and destination casino resorts in Las Vegas, Nevada, Macau, and China. The Company offers amenities such as guest rooms and suites, restaurants, golf course, and an on-site luxury automotive dealership.

Hyatt Hotels Corp. is a global hospitality company. The Company manages, franchises, owns, and develops branded hotels, resorts and residential and vacation ownership properties around the world.

ZENSHO Holdings CO., LTD. operates a fast food chain specialized in GYUDON which serves bowls of rice topped with seasoned beef based in Kanto.      The Company operates also diversifying into other types of food chains such as "Coco's" and "Big Boy" in Japan.

Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. operates a fleet of passenger cruise ships. The Company offers an array of cruise itineraries as well as theme cruises, while markets its services through various distribution channels including retail and travel agents, consumer direct, international sales, as well as incentive sales. Norwegian Cruise extends its services worldwide.

Wingstop Inc. owns and operates restaurants. The Company specializes in cooked-to-order, hand-sauced, and tossed chicken wings. Wingstop serves customers worldwide.

Planet Fitness, Inc. owns and operates a chain of fitness clubs. The Company offers offers personal fitness training programs for its members. Planet Fitness serves customers in the United States.

Scientific Games Corporation provides services, systems, and products to both the pari-mutuel gaming and instant ticket lottery industries.  The Company operates an instant ticket and online lottery products, systems, and services business.  Scientific also operates wagering and communications, venue management, and telecommunications products businesses.

Churchill Downs Incorporated is a horse racing company whose flagship operation, Churchill Downs, is the home of the Kentucky Derby.  The Company has additional racing and simulcast-wagering operations in Kentucky, Indiana, and Florida, as well as interests in various racing services companies.

Indian Hotels Company Limited operates The Taj Group of hotels.  The Company owns or maintains long term leases/licenses for hotels in India, in addition to International hotels.  The Group's hotels are divided into three groups: Luxury, Business, and, Leisure.

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Indian Hotels (IH IN)

NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance Preview: 58% Turnover & Strong Momentum

There could be 18 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum30 Index resulting in 1-way turnover of 58.2% and in a 1-way trade of INR 20bn (US$240m). Adds...

Brian Freitas

Juniper Hotels Pre-IPO - Has Been Recovering Well

Juniper Hotels (JH) is looking to raise up to US$217m in its upcoming India IPO. In this note, we look at the company's past performance.

Sumeet Singh

Axis Research Scorecard Report for Oct 2023

Our POW calls delivered an excellent Monthly strike rate of 84% in Oct’23. Calls that successfully achieved their target were Nestle India (~10%),...

Axis Direct

MSCI EM Index Approaching 10.5-Month Support; Remain Overweight India; Many EM Buys

$EEM is again approaching major 10.5-month support at $37-$37.50, which has been our important line-in-the-sand throughout 2023. As long as $EEM is...

Vermilion Research

ECM Weekly (24th Sep 2023) - Cainiao, J&T, Midea, Kokusai, Seoul Guarantee, Barito, Integral, DPC

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

Sumeet Singh

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