Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Oil & Natural Gas Corp / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>MSCI EM (EEM-US) has continued to hold above our $37-$37.50 line-in-the-sand, meaning we are constructive from a price perspective.</li>
<li>We have maintained an underweight to emerging markets, and we are overweight developed international (MSCI EAFE, Europe, Japan) as discussed in in Int’l Compass and ETF Pathfinder reports throughout 2023.</li>
<li>Still, there are plenty of attractive countries and Sectors within the EM landscape, which is what we are focusing on today.</li>
</ul>


MSCI EM (EEM-US) has continued to hold above our $37-$37.50 line-in-the-sand, meaning we are constructive from a price perspective.
We have maintained an underweight to emerging markets, and we are overweight developed international (MSCI EAFE, Europe, Japan) as discussed in in Int’l Compass and ETF Pathfinder reports throughout 2023.
Still, there are plenty of attractive countries and Sectors within the EM landscape, which is what we are focusing on today.


EM Strategy: MSCI EM Financials & Energy Improving-Overweight; Overweights: Taiwan, India, Mexico

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We attended Indian Hotels Company Limited’s (IHCL) Capital Market Day held on 11 May 2023</li><li>The crux of the presentation given by the management was on the revised AHVAAN target, IHCL’s growth in asset-light business, Indian consumption affecting hotel demand and upcoming events driving the demand</li><li>IHCL now stands with 188 hotels in operation and 75 hotels in the pipeline</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We attended Indian Hotels Company Limited’s (IHCL) Capital Market Day held on 11 May 2023The crux of the presentation given by the management was on the revised AHVAAN target, IHCL’s growth in asset-light business, Indian consumption affecting hotel demand and upcoming events driving the demandIHCL now stands with 188 hotels in operation and 75 hotels in the pipelineContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

S&P BSE SENSEX Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our 2023 outlook remains unchanged as we continue to expect broad-based consolidation with $93 capping upside on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), while important downside targets are $86, $84, and $75-77.</li>
<li>We still recommend tactical overweight to defensives including gold miners and MSCI ACWI Staples, Health Care, and Utilities, given ACWI-US remains near the top of our expected 2023 trading range.</li>
<li>We are now starting to see broad-based improvement, particularly in Japan and India, but also in Taiwan and South Korea. Most of today's buy recommendations are cyclicals in these countries.</li>
</ul>


Our 2023 outlook remains unchanged as we continue to expect broad-based consolidation with $93 capping upside on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), while important downside targets are $86, $84, and $75-77.
We still recommend tactical overweight to defensives including gold miners and MSCI ACWI Staples, Health Care, and Utilities, given ACWI-US remains near the top of our expected 2023 trading range.
We are now starting to see broad-based improvement, particularly in Japan and India, but also in Taiwan and South Korea. Most of today's buy recommendations are cyclicals in these countries.


Broad-Based Improvement in India, Add Exposure/Overweight. Buys: Cyclicals in Japan, India, & Taiwan

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Kotak Mahindra Bank: Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB) delivered a strong beat, led by healthy loan growth (+18% YoY), reflation in NIMs (+28bps QoQ), and lower-than-expected credit costs (20bps annualised)</li><li>Loan growth ex of wholesale was broad-based across segments, with continued traction in unsecured retail (10% of loans) in line with KMB’s efforts to improve its share of high-yield products</li><li>Deposit mobilisation picked up, primarily from term deposits, while CASA saw a 50bps QoQ decline to 52.8%</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Kotak Mahindra Bank: Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB) delivered a strong beat, led by healthy loan growth (+18% YoY), reflation in NIMs (+28bps QoQ), and lower-than-expected credit costs (20bps annualised)Loan growth ex of wholesale was broad-based across segments, with continued traction in unsecured retail (10% of loans) in line with KMB’s efforts to improve its share of high-yield productsDeposit mobilisation picked up, primarily from term deposits, while CASA saw a 50bps QoQ decline to 52.8%Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Kotak Mahindra Bank, Indian Hotels, Supreme Industries

India

Jubilant Foodworks Ltd. owns and operates fast food chains. The Company offers donuts, baked goods, coffee, bagels, muffin, fruit milkshakes, smoothies, tea, sandwiches, pizza, and beverages. Jubilant Foodworks serves its products to customers throughout India.

EIH Limited owns and operates luxury hotels and resorts in India under the name "Oberoi."  The Company also manages a mid-price hotel chain in India, in addition to hotels in Egypt, Australia, Sri Lanka, Indonesia and Saudi Arabia.

Thomas Cook (India) Ltd. operates as an authorized dealer in foreign exchange and as a travel agent. The Company also offers packaged tours, cargo services and travel related insurance. Thomas Cook (India) has offices and foreign exchange counters at various international airports in major cities in India.

Mahindra Holidays & Resorts India Ltd. provides leisure hospitality. The Company offers family holidays with a range of services through vacation memberships. Mahindra Holidays gives its members the choice to stay at resorts with furnished accommodations, such as apartments and cottages, and resort amenities, such as restaurants, kids clubs, and other activities.

Westlife Development Limited is an operating-cum-investment company that puts up and operates quick service restaurants. The Company, through its subsidiary, operates fast food franchise restaurants across western and southern India.

Lemon Tree Hotels Limited owns and operates a chain of hotels and resorts. The Company offers room accommodations, resorts, transportation, swimming pools, on-site restaurants, meeting rooms, fitness gym, and spa facilities. Lemon Tree Hotels serves customers in India.

India Tourism Development Corp Ltd (known as ITDC) develops tourism infrastructure and promotes India  as a tourist destination. ITDC provides tourism services including accommodation, catering, travel-related services, event management, publicity, hotel consultancy, duty free shops, in-house travel agency, entertainment and shopping.

Wonderla Holidays Limited owns and operates two amusement parks in Kochi and Bangalore, India.

Delta Corp Limited a diversified business group having a presence in the entertainment and gaming, real estate business in India and Kenya. The Company's business includes offshore casinos, and real estate consulting & development.

Adlabs Entertainment, Ltd. operates a theme park. The Company manages a theme park with rides, shopping, dining, accommodation, and other entertainment services. Adlabs Entertainment serves customers near Mumbai, India.

Genting Singapore Limited, through its subsidiaries, develops resort properties as well as operates casinos. The Company has casinos and integrated resorts in different parts of the world, including Australia, the Americas, Malaysia, the Philippines and the United Kingdom.

MGM China Holdings Ltd. owns a luxury resort, hotel, and casino located in Macau. The Company is also exploring other casino gaming development opportunities in Macau.

Wynn Resorts, Limited owns and operates luxury hotels and destination casino resorts in Las Vegas, Nevada, Macau, and China. The Company offers amenities such as guest rooms and suites, restaurants, golf course, and an on-site luxury automotive dealership.

Hyatt Hotels Corp. is a global hospitality company. The Company manages, franchises, owns, and develops branded hotels, resorts and residential and vacation ownership properties around the world.

ZENSHO Holdings CO., LTD. operates a fast food chain specialized in GYUDON which serves bowls of rice topped with seasoned beef based in Kanto.      The Company operates also diversifying into other types of food chains such as "Coco's" and "Big Boy" in Japan.

Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. operates a fleet of passenger cruise ships. The Company offers an array of cruise itineraries as well as theme cruises, while markets its services through various distribution channels including retail and travel agents, consumer direct, international sales, as well as incentive sales. Norwegian Cruise extends its services worldwide.

Wingstop Inc. owns and operates restaurants. The Company specializes in cooked-to-order, hand-sauced, and tossed chicken wings. Wingstop serves customers worldwide.

Planet Fitness, Inc. owns and operates a chain of fitness clubs. The Company offers offers personal fitness training programs for its members. Planet Fitness serves customers in the United States.

Scientific Games Corporation provides services, systems, and products to both the pari-mutuel gaming and instant ticket lottery industries.  The Company operates an instant ticket and online lottery products, systems, and services business.  Scientific also operates wagering and communications, venue management, and telecommunications products businesses.

Churchill Downs Incorporated is a horse racing company whose flagship operation, Churchill Downs, is the home of the Kentucky Derby.  The Company has additional racing and simulcast-wagering operations in Kentucky, Indiana, and Florida, as well as interests in various racing services companies.

Indian Hotels Company Limited operates The Taj Group of hotels.  The Company owns or maintains long term leases/licenses for hotels in India, in addition to International hotels.  The Group's hotels are divided into three groups: Luxury, Business, and, Leisure.

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Indian Hotels (IH IN)

EM Strategy: MSCI EM Financials & Energy Improving-Overweight; Overweights: Taiwan, India, Mexico

MSCI EM Financials & Energy Improving -- Upgrading to Overweight; MSCI EM Technology remains an Overweight. Top Country Overweights: Taiwan, India,...

Vermilion Research

Indian Hotels: IHCL Capital Market Day

We attended Indian Hotels Company Limited’s (IHCL) Capital Market Day held on 11 May 2023. The crux of the presentation given by the management was...

HDFC Securities

Indian Hotels - IHCL Capital Market Day

We attended Indian Hotels Company Limited’s (IHCL) Capital Market Day held on 11 May 2023The crux of the presentation given by the management was...

HDFC Securities

Broad-Based Improvement in India, Add Exposure/Overweight. Buys: Cyclicals in Japan, India, & Taiwan

Seeing broad-based improvement in India #SENSEX -- overweight/add exposure. We still recommend a tactical overweight to ACWI defensives with $ACWI...

Vermilion Research

HSIE Results Daily: Kotak Mahindra Bank, Indian Hotels, Supreme Industries

Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB) delivered a strong beat, led by healthy loan growth (+18% YoY), reflation in NIMs (+28bps QoQ), and lower-than-expected...

HDFC Securities

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