Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we provide a back-testing of the end of mandatory lock-up periods data from Korea Securities Depository (KSD) in the past six months.</li>
<li>Our back-testing suggests a 67% probability of the average share price performances of the top 3 market cap companies in each month data underperforming relative to KOSPI (10/15 time periods).</li>
<li>Among these stocks, some of the big underperformers included Wemade Co., Ltd. (112040 KS), Sebitchem (107600 KS), and Iljin Hysolus (271940 KS).</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we provide a back-testing of the end of mandatory lock-up periods data from Korea Securities Depository (KSD) in the past six months.
Our back-testing suggests a 67% probability of the average share price performances of the top 3 market cap companies in each month data underperforming relative to KOSPI (10/15 time periods).
Among these stocks, some of the big underperformers included Wemade Co., Ltd. (112040 KS), Sebitchem (107600 KS), and Iljin Hysolus (271940 KS).


Back-Testing End of Mandatory Lock-Up Periods Data from Korea Securities Depository in 2H 2022

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/iljin-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11265:1" rel="noopener">Iljin Holdings (015860 KS)</a></strong>'s implied stub is around levels just prior to the onset of Covid, despite strong subsequent deconsolidated earnings. 50.1%-held <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/iljin-diamond-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10185:1" rel="noopener">Iljin Diamond (081000 KS)</a></strong> is itself heavily discounted. </li>
<li>Preceding my comments on Iljin are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos. </li>
<li>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.</li>
</ul>



Iljin Holdings (015860 KS)'s implied stub is around levels just prior to the onset of Covid, despite strong subsequent deconsolidated earnings. 50.1%-held Iljin Diamond (081000 KS) is itself heavily discounted. 
Preceding my comments on Iljin are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos. 
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.


StubWorld: Iljin Holdings - Discounts On Discounts

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

<ul>
<li>Compared to the tightly crowded KOSPI 200, the sector ETFs' rebalancing flow trading appears relatively less crowded, which led to a significantly higher flow/price correlation on the rebalancing day.</li>
<li>The KRX now delivers the rebalancing results of the KRX Sector &amp; K-New Deal Indexes only to paying customers. This can increase the profit effect of acquiring prior information.</li>
<li>So, safe play, which builds up a position from the time this information is acquired, rather than an aggressive preemptive position build-up, can still obtain a sufficient level of juice.</li>
</ul>


Compared to the tightly crowded KOSPI 200, the sector ETFs' rebalancing flow trading appears relatively less crowded, which led to a significantly higher flow/price correlation on the rebalancing day.
The KRX now delivers the rebalancing results of the KRX Sector &amp; K-New Deal Indexes only to paying customers. This can increase the profit effect of acquiring prior information.
So, safe play, which builds up a position from the time this information is acquired, rather than an aggressive preemptive position build-up, can still obtain a sufficient level of juice.


Backtesting Implications: Korea Sector ETFs Rebalancing on the 8th

<ul>
<li>We discuss end of the mandatory lock-up periods for 40 stocks in Korea in September 2022, among which 3 are in KOSPI and 37 are in KOSDAQ.</li>
<li>These 40 stocks on average could be subject to further selling pressures in September and could underperform relative to the market. </li>
<li>Among these 40 stocks, the top five market cap stocks include Iljin Hysolus, Sebit Chem, Eoflow, Bumhan Fuelcell, and Voronoi. They could be exposed to greater selling pressures in September. </li>
</ul>


We discuss end of the mandatory lock-up periods for 40 stocks in Korea in September 2022, among which 3 are in KOSPI and 37 are in KOSDAQ.
These 40 stocks on average could be subject to further selling pressures in September and could underperform relative to the market. 
Among these 40 stocks, the top five market cap stocks include Iljin Hysolus, Sebit Chem, Eoflow, Bumhan Fuelcell, and Voronoi. They could be exposed to greater selling pressures in September. 


End of Mandatory Lock-Up Periods for 40 Companies in Korea in September 2022

<ul>
<li>Iljin HySolus and Hyundai Heavy Industries will release the ESOP volumes, 0.82% and 3.93% of SO, on September 1st and 17th. They have risen 2.3% and 145.8% from the listings.</li>
<li>Despite the small profit, it seems more probable that the Iljin HySolus ESOP will attempt to dispose of its shares immediately after the release, potentially leading to another price correction.</li>
<li>On the other hand, I would seek a hedge for the HHI ESOP lockup release. I would look at KSOE as a hedge for my short position on HHI.</li>
</ul>


Iljin HySolus and Hyundai Heavy Industries will release the ESOP volumes, 0.82% and 3.93% of SO, on September 1st and 17th. They have risen 2.3% and 145.8% from the listings.
Despite the small profit, it seems more probable that the Iljin HySolus ESOP will attempt to dispose of its shares immediately after the release, potentially leading to another price correction.
On the other hand, I would seek a hedge for the HHI ESOP lockup release. I would look at KSOE as a hedge for my short position on HHI.


ESOP Lockup Releases: Iljin HySolus & Hyundai Heavy Industries

South Korea

Iljin Hysolus Co Ltd operates environmental problem solving businesses. The Company provides hydrogen solutions, CNG solutions, diesel solutions and other services. Iljin Hysolus conducts businesses in South Korea.

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Iljin Hysolus (271940 KS)

Back-Testing End of Mandatory Lock-Up Periods Data from Korea Securities Depository in 2H 2022

In this insight, we provide a back-testing of the end of mandatory lock-up periods data from Korea Securities Depository (KSD) in the past six months.

Douglas Kim

StubWorld: Iljin Holdings - Discounts On Discounts

Iljin Holdings' implied stub is around levels just prior to the Covid, despite strong subsequent deconsolidated earnings. 50.1%-held Iljin Diamond...

David Blennerhassett

Backtesting Implications: Korea Sector ETFs Rebalancing on the 8th

This post backtests the flow trading performance for the rebalancings of Korea's sector ETFs on the 8th and discusses unique patterns and...

Sanghyun Park

End of Mandatory Lock-Up Periods for 40 Companies in Korea in September 2022

We discuss end of the mandatory lock-up periods for 40 stocks in Korea in September 2022. These 40 stocks on average could be subject to further...

Douglas Kim

ESOP Lockup Releases: Iljin HySolus & Hyundai Heavy Industries

This post investigates the two ESOP lockup releases we will see in September in Korea: Iljin HySolus and Hyundai Heavy Industries.

Sanghyun Park

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