Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Event-Driven

<p>Hyundai Mobis is at -2.3σ on a 20D MA relative to its brother, Hyundai Motor ordinary share.</p><table class="table table-striped">
<colgroup>
<col width="200">
<col width="100">
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr><td colspan="2" rowspan="1" style="width: 723.636px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"% of sigma"}'>% of sigma</td></tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 351.818px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Today"}'>Today</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 350.909px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-2.3035030515769517}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=Data!R[-12]C[6]">-230.35%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 351.818px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"T-1"}'>T-1</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 350.909px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-0.916931344299026}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=Data!R[-12]C[6]">-91.69%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 351.818px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"T-2"}'>T-2</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 350.909px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-0.5645130872563673}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=Data!R[-12]C[6]">-56.45%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 351.818px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"T-3"}'>T-3</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 350.909px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.2465686874114751}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=Data!R[-12]C[6]">24.66%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 351.818px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"T-4"}'>T-4</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 350.909px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-0.4247825847315971}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=Data!R[-12]C[6]">-42.48%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 351.818px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"T-5"}'>T-5</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 350.909px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-0.09495037677635225}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=Data!R[-12]C[6]">-9.50%</td>
</tr>
<tr><td colspan="2" rowspan="1" style="width: 723.636px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Source: KRX"}'><em>Source: KRX</em></td></tr>
</tbody>
</table><p>The price ratio between them is now practically at a 2-yr low.</p><table class="table table-striped">
<colgroup>
<col width="200">
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr><td colspan="3" rowspan="1" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Price ratio"}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0"}'>Price ratio</td></tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Today"}'>Today</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":1.2701949860724233}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.00000","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=Data!R[-21]C[1]">1.27019</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"-"}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.00000","3":1}'>-</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"20D MA"}'>20D MA</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":1.3161097671656496}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.00000","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=Data!R[-22]C[2]">1.31611</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"-"}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.00000","3":1}'>-</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"σ"}'>σ</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.0199325896537422}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.00000","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=Data!R[-23]C[5]">0.01993</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"-"}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.00000","3":1}'>-</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"+1 σ"}' data-sheets-formula='="+1 σ"'>+1 σ</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":1.3360423568193918}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.00000","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=Data!R[-24]C[3]">1.33604</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"-"}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.00000","3":1}'>-</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"-1 σ"}' data-sheets-formula='="-1 σ"'>-1 σ</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":1.2961771775119075}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.00000","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=Data!R[-25]C[4]">1.29618</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"-"}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.00000","3":1}'>-</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"120D mean"}'>120D mean</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":1.7010486771205928}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.00000","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=average(Data!R2C3:R100C3)">1.70105</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-0.25328710274034383}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=(R23C[-1]-R[0]C[-1])/R[0]C[-1]">-25.33%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"120D median"}'>120D median</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":1.8409818569903948}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.00000","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=MEDIAN(Data!R2C3:R100C3)">1.84098</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-0.3100448104638489}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=(R23C[-1]-R[0]C[-1])/R[0]C[-1]">-31.00%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"120D high"}'>120D high</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":2.0878048780487806}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.00000","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=MAX(Data!R2C3:R100C3)">2.08780</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-0.391612214614844}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=(R23C[-1]-R[0]C[-1])/R[0]C[-1]">-39.16%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"120D low"}'>120D low</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":1.2691218130311614}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.00000","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=MIN(Data!R2C3:R100C3)">1.26912</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.0008456028651014254}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=(R23C[-1]-R[0]C[-1])/R[0]C[-1]">0.08%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"1Y mean"}'>1Y mean</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":1.8509836907922768}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.00000","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=average(Data!R2C3:R248C3)">1.85098</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-0.313772999518574}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=(R23C[-1]-R[0]C[-1])/R[0]C[-1]">-31.38%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"1Y median"}'>1Y median</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":1.9119351100811124}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.00000","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=MEDIAN(Data!R2C3:R248C3)">1.91194</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-0.3356495315269689}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=(R23C[-1]-R[0]C[-1])/R[0]C[-1]">-33.56%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"1Y high"}'>1Y high</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":2.197309417040359}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.00000","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=MAX(Data!R2C3:R248C3)">2.19731</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-0.4219316696037747}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=(R23C[-1]-R[0]C[-1])/R[0]C[-1]">-42.19%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"1Y low"}'>1Y low</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":1.2691218130311614}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.00000","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=MIN(Data!R2C3:R248C3)">1.26912</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.0008456028651014254}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=(R23C[-1]-R[0]C[-1])/R[0]C[-1]">0.08%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"2Y mean"}'>2Y mean</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":1.7960316722025786}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.00000","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=average(Data!R2C3:R476C3)">1.79603</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-0.2927769561464866}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=(R23C[-1]-R[0]C[-1])/R[0]C[-1]">-29.28%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"2Y median"}'>2Y median</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":1.7972103004291846}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.00000","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=MEDIAN(Data!R2C3:R476C3)">1.79721</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-0.29324075998835913}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=(R23C[-1]-R[0]C[-1])/R[0]C[-1]">-29.32%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"2Y high"}'>2Y high</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":2.197309417040359}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.00000","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=MAX(Data!R2C3:R476C3)">2.19731</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-0.4219316696037747}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=(R23C[-1]-R[0]C[-1])/R[0]C[-1]">-42.19%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"2Y low"}'>2Y low</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":1.2691218130311614}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.00000","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=MIN(Data!R2C3:R476C3)">1.26912</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.0008456028651014254}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=(R23C[-1]-R[0]C[-1])/R[0]C[-1]">0.08%</td>
</tr>
<tr><td colspan="3" rowspan="1" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Source: KRX &amp; Sanghyun Park"}'><em>Source: KRX</em></td></tr>
</tbody>
</table><p>The duo had undergone a harsh correction (price ratio-wise) in July. Since then, they have drifted sideways within a box.</p><p>So, this much short-term price diversion is the broadest since late July. </p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/161/053/original/chart.png?1600897627" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="161053"></figure>

Hyundai Mobis is at -2.3σ on a 20D MA relative to its brother, Hyundai Motor ordinary share.





% of sigma

Today
-230.35%


T-1
-91.69%


T-2
-56.45%


T-3
24.66%


T-4
-42.48%


T-5
-9.50%

Source: KRX

The price ratio between them is now practically at a 2-yr low.






Price ratio

Today
1.27019
-


20D MA
1.31611
-


σ
0.01993
-


+1 σ
1.33604
-


-1 σ
1.29618
-


120D mean
1.70105
-25.33%


120D median
1.84098
-31.00%


120D high
2.08780
-39.16%


120D low
1.26912
0.08%


1Y mean
1.85098
-31.38%


1Y median
1.91194
-33.56%


1Y high
2.19731
-42.19%


1Y low
1.26912
0.08%


2Y mean
1.79603
-29.28%


2Y median
1.79721
-29.32%


2Y high
2.19731
-42.19%


2Y low
1.26912
0.08%

Source: KRX

The duo had undergone a harsh correction (price ratio-wise) in July. Since then, they have drifted sideways within a box.So, this much short-term price diversion is the broadest since late July. 

Hyundai Mobis/Motor At -2.3σ: Entry Point for Range Trading

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

ASA Capital Management

ASA Capital Management is a boutique Research and Investment Advisory firm focusing on primary research in India. ASA provides bespoke research services to Institutional Clients with a focus on due diligence backed with primary research, Field Trips & Channel Checks.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div>
<p>This insight is a sequel to our monthly auto tracker insights. It covers the performance of the auto sector in India for the month of August, 2020. We look at four main aspects - the four wheeler vehicle segment, the two wheeler vehicle segment, vehicle registration data and alternative data search trends. We also now report OEM volumes covering <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/maruti-suzuki-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:733:1" rel="noopener">Maruti Suzuki India (MSIL IN)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tvs-motor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16123:1" rel="noopener">TVS Motor (TVSL IN)</a> ,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eicher-motors-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18316:1" rel="noopener">Eicher Motors (EIM IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hero-motocorp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2391:1" rel="noopener">Hero Motocorp (HMCL IN)</a> . </p>
</div>
<div>
<p>August data shows the slight turn in consumers' behaviour towards the segment. With government initiatives now focussed on rejuvenating public transport, consumers are now backing away from private vehicle purchases. There has been an incredible growth in the two-wheeler segment and we also see an optimistic return to normalcy in rural India.</p>
<div class="content-highlight">
<p>This is a Joint insight with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/nitin-mangal" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1988" rel="noopener">Nitin Mangal</a> </p>
</div>
</div>


This insight is a sequel to our monthly auto tracker insights. It covers the performance of the auto sector in India for the month of August, 2020. We look at four main aspects - the four wheeler vehicle segment, the two wheeler vehicle segment, vehicle registration data and alternative data search trends. We also now report OEM volumes covering Maruti Suzuki India (MSIL IN) , TVS Motor (TVSL IN) ,Eicher Motors (EIM IN) and Hero Motocorp (HMCL IN) . 


August data shows the slight turn in consumers' behaviour towards the segment. With government initiatives now focussed on rejuvenating public transport, consumers are now backing away from private vehicle purchases. There has been an incredible growth in the two-wheeler segment and we also see an optimistic return to normalcy in rural India.

This is a Joint insight with Nitin Mangal 



India Autos | Auto Tracker for August - YoY Volume Recovery

SGX Market Strategist, Equity & Fixed Income, Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Geoff Howie

SGX Market Strategist, Equity & Fixed Income

Asia’s leading multi-asset exchange

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Singapore Exchange is Asia’s leading and trusted market infrastructure, facilitating the exchange of capital and ideas to create value for people, businesses and economies. As a multi-asset exchange operating equity, fixed income and derivatives markets to the highest regulatory standards, SGX is a vertically integrated business that provides listing, trading, clearing, settlement, depository and data services.

With about 40% of listed companies and over 80% of listed bonds originating outside of Singapore as well as established linkages across the region and in Europe, SGX is Asia’s most international and connected exchange. Offering a full suite of derivatives products across Asian equity indices, commodities and currencies, SGX is the world’s most liquid international market for the benchmark equity indices of China, India, Japan and ASEAN.

As Asia’s pioneering central counterparty, SGX is globally recognised for its risk management and clearing capabilities, and was one of the first globally to adopt the Principles for Financial Market Infrastructure.

Headquartered in AAA-rated Singapore, SGX has over 800 employees including offices in Beijing, Chicago, Hong Kong, London, New York, Mumbai, San Francisco, Shanghai and Tokyo.

Equity Bottom-Up

<!DOCTYPE html PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN" "http://www.w3.org/TR/REC-html40/loose.dtd">
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<ul>
<li>
<strong>DBS, OCBC &amp; UOB averaged 4.2% total returns in August, outpacing 1.6% flat median returns of the top quartile of global banking stocks by market value. Similar performance parallels were observed in the 2020 year to 2 Sep, with the trio averaging 18.2% declines, compared to a 20.2% median decline for the top global quartile.</strong><br>
	 </li>
	<li>
<strong>DBS and OCBC remain amongst the top ten constituents of the FTSE Developed Asia Pacific ex-Japan Sustainable Yield Index. Constituents meet financial and operating strength criteria, with emphasis on strong balance sheets and ability to generate cash flow. </strong><br>
	 </li>
	<li><strong>With the three banks directed to cap FY20 dividend distributions to 60% of FY19 distributions (to bolster ability to swerve credit needs and absorb potential shocks), potential FY20 dividend yields for the three banks could be as high as 3.5% to 4.0%, based on current market prices.  </strong></li>
</ul>
<p> </p>

<p><strong>Sector-Driven Performances in 2020 YTD<br><br>
DBS Group Holdings ("DBS"), Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp ("OCBC") and United Overseas Bank ("UOB") all distributed dividends in August, which saw their average 2.6% price return for the month extended to a 4.2% total return</strong>. By comparison, the top quartile of global banking stocks by market value generated a median total return of 1.6% over the month.  As illustrated below, the three banks have outpaced the top quartile of global banking stocks over the past five years.</p>
</body></html>

<figure>
      <img src='https://api2.sgx.com/sites/default/files/2020-09/Capture_1.PNG' alt='Total Return' />
    </figure>
    <div class='content-caption'>Total Return</div>
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<p>The three banks have gradually increasing quarterly Net Interest Income to above S$4 billion in 2QFY15 and above S$5 billion in 2QFY18, maintaining a combined Net Interest Income of S$5.4 billion in 2QFY20 as discussed <a href="https://www.sgx.com/research-education/market-updates/20200820-bank-structured-warrants-recently-strengthened">here</a>.<br><br>
For the 2020 year to 2 September, accommodative monetary policy and economic lockdowns have meant that global banks have had to contend with a sudden reduction in interest rate margins and overall demand for financing, while needing to boost loan provisions, hence uniform drivers have seen parallel performances of banking sectors across the globe. Key Banking Sector themes continuing into the second half of 2020 include bank  abilities to generate income, tier 1 capital to risk-weighted assets and non-performing loan ratios. Note that on the ability to generate income, the top quartile of global banks with an ROE less than 4% generated a median decline of 30% in the 2020 year to date.    <br><br><strong>Dividend Yields Remain Competitive</strong><br><br>
With the MAS recently directing the three Banks to cap dividends at 60% of FY19 levels “to bolster the ability to continue to support the credit needs of businesses and consumers as well as absorb economic shocks” the maximum dividends amounts for FY20 are as follows:</p>

<ul>
<li>As DBS paid S$1.23 in FY19, 60% of this amount is S$0.738 max per share in FY20. Theoretically, if DBS would then save S$1.25 billion from the S$3.145 billion paid in FY19.</li>
	<li>As OCBC paid S$0.53 in FY19, 60% of this amount is S$0.318 max per share in FY20 . Theoretically, OCBC would then save S$924 million from S$2.31 billion paid in FY19. </li>
	<li>As UOB paid S$1.30 in FY19,  60% of this amount is S$0.780 max per share in FY20. Theoretically, this would save S$868 million from S$2.17 billion paid in FY19.</li>
</ul>
<p> </p>

<p><strong>Based on the above caps, the maximum potential FY20 dividend yields for the three banks could still be as high as 3.5% to 4.0%based on current market prices.  The current median indicative dividend yield for the top quartile of global banks by market value is 4.4%. </strong><br><br>
 </p>

<p><strong>FTSE Global Sustainable Yield Index Series</strong><br><br>
The FTSE Global Sustainable Yield Index Series is reviewed semi-annually in March and September using data at the close of the last business day of February and August. This means, results of the FTSE Developed Asia Pacific ex Japan Sustainable Yield Index which includes as many as 17 Singapore stocks, are expected to be released within the week.<br><br><strong>DBS Group Holdings ("DBS"), Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp ("OCBC") have remained in the top 10 constituent weights of the FTSE Developed Asia Pacific ex-Japan Sustainable Yield Index at the end of August.</strong> United Overseas Bank ("UOB") and Hong Kong listed CK Hutchison Holdings places were displaced as the 10 heavyweights in August by Korea-listed Hyundai Motor and Hong Kong listed Sun Hung Kai Props.<br><br>
The FTSE Global Sustainable Yield Index Series examines the financial and operating strength of prospective constituents with specific emphasis on companies with strong balance sheets and the ability to generate cash flow. Financial and operational strength metrics include Return on Assets, cash-flow from operations, accruals and changes in leverage. <strong>Note that other screening criteria include the pay-out ratio and incidence of historic or forecast dividend cuts</strong> (for the Factsheet and more detailed methodology, click <a href="https://www.ftserussell.com/products/indices/sustainable-yield?utm_source=MG&amp;utm_medium=EDM&amp;utm_campaign=alwayson&amp;utm_term=180219&amp;utm_content=HOTW">here</a>), hence the upcoming rebalance results will be of particular relevance to the Singapore Banking Sector. <br><br><strong>To follow the FTSE Index announcements: click <a href="https://www.ftserussell.com/products/index-notices/Home/GetNotices/ALL">here</a>.</strong></p>
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DBS, OCBC &amp; UOB averaged 4.2% total returns in August, outpacing 1.6% flat median returns of the top quartile of global banking stocks by market value. Similar performance parallels were observed in the 2020 year to 2 Sep, with the trio averaging 18.2% declines, compared to a 20.2% median decline for the top global quartile. 
	 
	
DBS and OCBC remain amongst the top ten constituents of the FTSE Developed Asia Pacific ex-Japan Sustainable Yield Index. Constituents meet financial and operating strength criteria, with emphasis on strong balance sheets and ability to generate cash flow.  
	 
	With the three banks directed to cap FY20 dividend distributions to 60% of FY19 distributions (to bolster ability to swerve credit needs and absorb potential shocks), potential FY20 dividend yields for the three banks could be as high as 3.5% to 4.0%, based on current market prices.  

 

Sector-Driven Performances in 2020 YTD  
DBS Group Holdings ("DBS"), Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp ("OCBC") and United Overseas Bank ("UOB") all distributed dividends in August, which saw their average 2.6% price return for the month extended to a 4.2% total return. By comparison, the top quartile of global banking stocks by market value generated a median total return of 1.6% over the month.  As illustrated below, the three banks have outpaced the top quartile of global banking stocks over the past five years.



      
    
    Total Return


The three banks have gradually increasing quarterly Net Interest Income to above S$4 billion in 2QFY15 and above S$5 billion in 2QFY18, maintaining a combined Net Interest Income of S$5.4 billion in 2QFY20 as discussed here.  
For the 2020 year to 2 September, accommodative monetary policy and economic lockdowns have meant that global banks have had to contend with a sudden reduction in interest rate margins and overall demand for financing, while needing to boost loan provisions, hence uniform drivers have seen parallel performances of banking sectors across the globe. Key Banking Sector themes continuing into the second half of 2020 include bank  abilities to generate income, tier 1 capital to risk-weighted assets and non-performing loan ratios. Note that on the ability to generate income, the top quartile of global banks with an ROE less than 4% generated a median decline of 30% in the 2020 year to date.      Dividend Yields Remain Competitive  
With the MAS recently directing the three Banks to cap dividends at 60% of FY19 levels “to bolster the ability to continue to support the credit needs of businesses and consumers as well as absorb economic shocks” the maximum dividends amounts for FY20 are as follows:


As DBS paid S$1.23 in FY19, 60% of this amount is S$0.738 max per share in FY20. Theoretically, if DBS would then save S$1.25 billion from the S$3.145 billion paid in FY19.
	As OCBC paid S$0.53 in FY19, 60% of this amount is S$0.318 max per share in FY20 . Theoretically, OCBC would then save S$924 million from S$2.31 billion paid in FY19. 
	As UOB paid S$1.30 in FY19,  60% of this amount is S$0.780 max per share in FY20. Theoretically, this would save S$868 million from S$2.17 billion paid in FY19.

 

Based on the above caps, the maximum potential FY20 dividend yields for the three banks could still be as high as 3.5% to 4.0%based on current market prices.  The current median indicative dividend yield for the top quartile of global banks by market value is 4.4%.   
 

FTSE Global Sustainable Yield Index Series  
The FTSE Global Sustainable Yield Index Series is reviewed semi-annually in March and September using data at the close of the last business day of February and August. This means, results of the FTSE Developed Asia Pacific ex Japan Sustainable Yield Index which includes as many as 17 Singapore stocks, are expected to be released within the week.  DBS Group Holdings ("DBS"), Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp ("OCBC") have remained in the top 10 constituent weights of the FTSE Developed Asia Pacific ex-Japan Sustainable Yield Index at the end of August. United Overseas Bank ("UOB") and Hong Kong listed CK Hutchison Holdings places were displaced as the 10 heavyweights in August by Korea-listed Hyundai Motor and Hong Kong listed Sun Hung Kai Props.  
The FTSE Global Sustainable Yield Index Series examines the financial and operating strength of prospective constituents with specific emphasis on companies with strong balance sheets and the ability to generate cash flow. Financial and operational strength metrics include Return on Assets, cash-flow from operations, accruals and changes in leverage. Note that other screening criteria include the pay-out ratio and incidence of historic or forecast dividend cuts (for the Factsheet and more detailed methodology, click here), hence the upcoming rebalance results will be of particular relevance to the Singapore Banking Sector.   To follow the FTSE Index announcements: click here.



<p>Hyundai Motor stocks are again moving up.</p><p>As of noon in the local time, Hyundai Motor's ordinary share is up 3.49%, followed by all three preferred shares whose gains range from 3.34% (1P) to 6.20% (3PB).</p><p>Also, Kia is up 1.52%, and Mobis moves up by 2.21%.</p><p>Glovis is gaining the most, among the subsidiaries, with 4.15%.</p><p><strong>Then, sigma on a 20D MA?</strong></p><p>Everyone seems to be within a controllable range relative to the Motor ordinary share.</p><p><strong>But the Glovis/Mobis pair is in a substantial diversion at a 2.42σ favoring Glovis.</strong></p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/156/057/original/12.png?1598843388" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="156057"></figure>

Hyundai Motor stocks are again moving up.As of noon in the local time, Hyundai Motor's ordinary share is up 3.49%, followed by all three preferred shares whose gains range from 3.34% (1P) to 6.20% (3PB).Also, Kia is up 1.52%, and Mobis moves up by 2.21%.Glovis is gaining the most, among the subsidiaries, with 4.15%.Then, sigma on a 20D MA?Everyone seems to be within a controllable range relative to the Motor ordinary share.But the Glovis/Mobis pair is in a substantial diversion at a 2.42σ favoring Glovis.

Hyundai Motor Stocks Moving: Trade Glovis/Mobis Pair

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Quantitative Analysis

<div><p>The Asia Short Interest weekly looks at moves in market wide short interest and highlights movements in stock specific short interest across Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Taiwan using the last available data published by the relevant authorities.</p></div><div><p>Hong Kong saw shorts rise on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sunny-optical-tech" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13363:1" rel="noopener">Sunny Optical (2382 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aia-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14895:1" rel="noopener">AIA Group Ltd (1299 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan-dianping" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan Dianping (3690 HK)</a>, while there was short covering on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiaomi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24409:1" rel="noopener">Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-insurance-grp-co-of-china-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12880:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/new-china-life-insurance-c-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:377:1" rel="noopener">New China Life Insurance (1336 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anta-sports-products-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10261:1" rel="noopener">Anta Sports Products (2020 HK)</a>. Shorts increased in almost all sectors led by Financials, Consumer Discretionary, Communication Services, Consumer Staples and Information Technology.</p></div><div><p>Japan saw an increase in shorts on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ntt-docomo-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1089:1" rel="noopener">NTT Docomo Inc (9437 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokio-marine-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7591:1" rel="noopener">Tokio Marine Holdings (8766 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11171:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi Electric (6503 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kddi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:639:1" rel="noopener">KDDI Corp (9433 JP)</a> and a reduction in shorts on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/m3-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13316:1" rel="noopener">M3 Inc (2413 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/square-enix-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15003:1" rel="noopener">Square Enix Holdings (9684 JP)</a>. Sectorally, shorts increased on Communication Services, Industrials, Financials, Consumer Staples and Health Care. and were covered in Consumer Discretionary.</p></div><div><p>Short Interest in Korea increased in Technology Hardware and Automobiles, while shorts covered positions in Energy and Household stocks. Stocks that saw the most short covering were <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-innovation-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1268:1" rel="noopener">SK Innovation (096770 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lg-household-health-care" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6501:1" rel="noopener">LG Household &amp; Health Care (051900 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kakao-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15002:1" rel="noopener">Kakao Corp (035720 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-biologics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22932:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Biologics Co., (207940 KS)</a> while shorts increased on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hyundai-motor-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:155:1" rel="noopener">Hyundai Motor Co (005380 KS)</a>. </p></div><div><p>Short Interest in Taiwan increased in Technology Hardware, Semiconductors, Materials and Capital Goods while shorts decreased in Banks and Consumer Durables. Stocks that saw the highest increase in shorts were <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/largan-precision-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9126:1" rel="noopener">Largan Precision (3008 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genius-electronic-optical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9632:1" rel="noopener">Genius Electronic Optical (3406 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/accton-technology-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4424:1" rel="noopener">Accton Technology (2345 TT)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/century-iron-steel-indus" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8853:1" rel="noopener">Century Iron &amp; Steel Indus (9958 TT)</a> while shorts were covered on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yageo-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13212:1" rel="noopener">Yageo Corporation (2327 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/flexium-interconnect-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15897:1" rel="noopener">Flexium Interconnect (6269 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/catcher-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4957:1" rel="noopener">Catcher Technology (2474 TT)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/e-sun-financial-holding-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:719:1" rel="noopener">E.Sun Financial Holding Co (2884 TT)</a>. </p></div>

The Asia Short Interest weekly looks at moves in market wide short interest and highlights movements in stock specific short interest across Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Taiwan using the last available data published by the relevant authorities.Hong Kong saw shorts rise on Sunny Optical (2382 HK), Alibaba Group (9988 HK), AIA Group Ltd (1299 HK) and Meituan Dianping (3690 HK), while there was short covering on Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK), Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK), New China Life Insurance (1336 HK) and Anta Sports Products (2020 HK). Shorts increased in almost all sectors led by Financials, Consumer Discretionary, Communication Services, Consumer Staples and Information Technology.Japan saw an increase in shorts on NTT Docomo Inc (9437 JP), Tokio Marine Holdings (8766 JP), Mitsubishi Electric (6503 JP) and KDDI Corp (9433 JP) and a reduction in shorts on Toyota Motor (7203 JP), Fast Retailing (9983 JP), M3 Inc (2413 JP) and Square Enix Holdings (9684 JP). Sectorally, shorts increased on Communication Services, Industrials, Financials, Consumer Staples and Health Care. and were covered in Consumer Discretionary.Short Interest in Korea increased in Technology Hardware and Automobiles, while shorts covered positions in Energy and Household stocks. Stocks that saw the most short covering were SK Innovation (096770 KS), LG Household &amp; Health Care (051900 KS), Kakao Corp (035720 KS) and Samsung Biologics Co., (207940 KS) while shorts increased on Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) and Hyundai Motor Co (005380 KS). Short Interest in Taiwan increased in Technology Hardware, Semiconductors, Materials and Capital Goods while shorts decreased in Banks and Consumer Durables. Stocks that saw the highest increase in shorts were Largan Precision (3008 TT), Genius Electronic Optical (3406 TT), Accton Technology (2345 TT) and Century Iron &amp; Steel Indus (9958 TT) while shorts were covered on Yageo Corporation (2327 TT), Flexium Interconnect (6269 TT), Catcher Technology (2474 TT) and E.Sun Financial Holding Co (2884 TT). 

Asia Short Interest Weekly: Sunny Optical, Alibaba, Anta, KDDI, M3, Square Enix, Samsung, Largan

South Korea

Hyundai Motor Company manufactures, sells, and exports passenger cars, trucks, and commercial vehicles. The Company also sells various auto parts and operates auto repair service centers throughout South Korea. Hyundai Motor provides financial services through its subsidiaries.

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Hyundai Motor (005385 KS)

Hyundai Mobis/Motor At -2.3σ: Entry Point for Range Trading

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Hyundai Motor Stocks Moving: Trade Glovis/Mobis Pair

Hyundai Motor stocks are again moving up.As of noon in the local time, Hyundai Motor's ordinary share is up 3.49%, followed by all three preferred...

Sanghyun Park

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Brian Freitas

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