Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>NPS said it would add 50 KOSPI stocks to KOSPI 200 for direct management. However, the key was when this would be implemented and which ones would be included.</li>
<li>SBS, one of Korea's major networks, exclusively reported that NPS finalized the constituent stocks of the NPS-KR250 and started rebalancing trading on the 50 additional KOSPI stocks from January.</li>
<li>Hence, tracing and identifying who these additional 50 KOSPI stocks are is becoming the hottest topic in Korea's local market at this point.</li>
</ul>


NPS said it would add 50 KOSPI stocks to KOSPI 200 for direct management. However, the key was when this would be implemented and which ones would be included.
SBS, one of Korea's major networks, exclusively reported that NPS finalized the constituent stocks of the NPS-KR250 and started rebalancing trading on the 50 additional KOSPI stocks from January.
Hence, tracing and identifying who these additional 50 KOSPI stocks are is becoming the hottest topic in Korea's local market at this point.


Korea NPS Reportedly Finalized Additional 50 KOSPI Stocks in Its BM for Direct Management

<ul>
<li>Hankyung's report is a clear misunderstanding under the current index methodology. The possibility of Samchully and Daesung Holdings' KOSPI 200 inclusion is NONE.</li>
<li>However, the issue of deteriorating the market representation of the K200 index, which is caused by the top stocks outside the index, is gaining attention in the local financial space.</li>
<li>So, we should prepare for the possibility that KRX will revise the methodology. In this case, an intense preemptive flow for the top names outside the KOSPI 200 can appear.</li>
</ul>


Hankyung's report is a clear misunderstanding under the current index methodology. The possibility of Samchully and Daesung Holdings' KOSPI 200 inclusion is NONE.
However, the issue of deteriorating the market representation of the K200 index, which is caused by the top stocks outside the index, is gaining attention in the local financial space.
So, we should prepare for the possibility that KRX will revise the methodology. In this case, an intense preemptive flow for the top names outside the KOSPI 200 can appear.


Misunderstandings & Truth About Samchully & Daesung Holdings Entering KOSPI 200

<ul>
<li>We should focus on the weight changes of the existing constituents. For this, two names really stand out: Kakao Pay (+0.44x ADTV) and LG Corp (+0.37x ADTV).</li>
<li>It is because Kakao Pay and LG Corp will undergo an increase in their float rate in the KOSPI 200 rebalancing, and these up-weights will also affect this sector index.</li>
<li>Their combined inflow size (KOSPI 200 &amp; KOSPI 200 IT) will be 1.41x and 1.16x ADTVs. This will be the most substantial, except for Kakao Bank and the new additions.</li>
</ul>


We should focus on the weight changes of the existing constituents. For this, two names really stand out: Kakao Pay (+0.44x ADTV) and LG Corp (+0.37x ADTV).
It is because Kakao Pay and LG Corp will undergo an increase in their float rate in the KOSPI 200 rebalancing, and these up-weights will also affect this sector index.
Their combined inflow size (KOSPI 200 &amp; KOSPI 200 IT) will be 1.41x and 1.16x ADTVs. This will be the most substantial, except for Kakao Bank and the new additions.


KOSPI 200 IT Sector Index Rebalancing Flow: Watch Kakao Pay & LG Corp

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

<p>In this insight, we discuss the stocks that could get included or excluded in the November 2021 KOSPI 200 rebalance. We highlight 15 stocks that could get included and 10 stocks that could get excluded in the upcoming KOSPI 200 rebalance.</p><div class="content-highlight">
<p>This rebalance of the KOSPI 200 strategy is a type of<strong> momentum-driven strategy.</strong> The 15 stocks that we think could get included in the next KOSPI 200 rebalance have generated strong share price performances <strong>(up 55% on average in the past six months</strong>). </p>
<p>On the other hand, the 10 stocks which we think could get excluded in the next KOSPI 200 rebalance (the bottom 5% of KOSPI 200 index in terms of market cap) have done much worse in terms of their share price performance (<strong>down 6.1% on average in the past six months</strong>). </p>
</div>

In this insight, we discuss the stocks that could get included or excluded in the November 2021 KOSPI 200 rebalance. We highlight 15 stocks that could get included and 10 stocks that could get excluded in the upcoming KOSPI 200 rebalance.
This rebalance of the KOSPI 200 strategy is a type of momentum-driven strategy. The 15 stocks that we think could get included in the next KOSPI 200 rebalance have generated strong share price performances (up 55% on average in the past six months). 
On the other hand, the 10 stocks which we think could get excluded in the next KOSPI 200 rebalance (the bottom 5% of KOSPI 200 index in terms of market cap) have done much worse in terms of their share price performance (down 6.1% on average in the past six months). 


Potential Changes of KOSPI 200 Index Components in the November 2021 Rebalance

<p>What's going on at Hyundai Mobis (and Glovis)?</p><p>Once again, the same old rumor emerged in the local market yesterday.</p><div class="content-highlight"><h2><strong>Chung Eui-sun will sell 10% of his Glovis stake in block deals. Then, he will use the proceeds to buy Mobis shares.</strong></h2></div><p><strong>Why do we keep hearing this rumor?</strong></p><p>For this, we need to know the Korea FTC's intra-group transaction restrictions.</p><p>If the owner family's shareholding in a chaebol affiliate exceeds the threshold, the affiliate will become subject to the intra-group transaction restrictions.</p><p>A company under the intra-group transaction restrictions isn't allowed to exceed intra-group deals for more than ₩20B (or 12% of total sales).</p><p><strong>Currently, Hyundai Glovis is the problem within the Hyundai Motor Group. The intra-group deals account for 69.8% (₩9.8T) of the total revenue last year (₩14.5T).</strong></p><p>The shareholding threshold is 30% for listed companies and 20% for unlisted companies.</p><p>Glovis has been able to escape the restrictions as the Chung family (Chung Mong-koo and Chung Eui-sun combined) have slightly less than 30%.</p><table class="table table-striped">
<colgroup>
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Hyundai Glovis"}'>Hyundai Glovis</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Shares"}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":4,"2":"[$₩-412]#,##0"}'>Shares</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"%"}'>%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Value (₩B)"}'>Value (₩B)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Chung Eui-sun"}'>Chung Eui-sun</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":8732290}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0"}'>8,732,290</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.2329}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}'>23.29%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":1563.34125}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.0"}' data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-1]*R10C5">1,563.3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Den Norske Amerikalinje AS"}'>Den Norske Amerikalinje AS</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":4125000}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0"}'>4,125,000</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.11}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}'>11.00%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":738.375}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.0"}' data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-1]*R10C5">738.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Chung Mong-koo"}'>Chung Mong-koo</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":2517701}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0"}'>2,517,701</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.0671}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}'>6.71%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":450.40875000000005}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.0"}' data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-1]*R10C5">450.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Hyundai Motor"}'>Hyundai Motor</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":1830939}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0"}'>1,830,939</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.0488}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}'>4.88%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":327.57}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.0"}' data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-1]*R10C5">327.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"HM CMK Foundation"}'>HM CMK Foundation</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":1671018}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0"}'>1,671,018</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.0446}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}'>4.46%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":299.3775}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.0"}' data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-1]*R10C5">299.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Chung Eui-sun+Chung Mong-koo"}'><strong>Chung Eui-sun+Chung Mong-koo</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":11249991}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0"}' data-sheets-formula="=R[-3]C[0]+R[-5]C[0]"><strong>11,249,991</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.2999}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}'><strong>29.99%</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":2013.07875}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.0"}' data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-1]*R10C5"><strong>2,013.1</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr><td colspan="4" rowspan="1" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Source: FnGuide"}'>Source: FnGuide</td></tr>
</tbody>
</table><p>But starting next year, the threshold for listed companies will also become 20%.</p><p>This is exactly why we keep hearing this rumor because Chung Eui-sun has to reduce his stake by 10%p so that the family-owned combined stake falls below 20%.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/199/625/original/image?1617927547" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="199625"></figure>

What's going on at Hyundai Mobis (and Glovis)?Once again, the same old rumor emerged in the local market yesterday.Chung Eui-sun will sell 10% of his Glovis stake in block deals. Then, he will use the proceeds to buy Mobis shares.Why do we keep hearing this rumor?For this, we need to know the Korea FTC's intra-group transaction restrictions.If the owner family's shareholding in a chaebol affiliate exceeds the threshold, the affiliate will become subject to the intra-group transaction restrictions.A company under the intra-group transaction restrictions isn't allowed to exceed intra-group deals for more than ₩20B (or 12% of total sales).Currently, Hyundai Glovis is the problem within the Hyundai Motor Group. The intra-group deals account for 69.8% (₩9.8T) of the total revenue last year (₩14.5T).The shareholding threshold is 30% for listed companies and 20% for unlisted companies.Glovis has been able to escape the restrictions as the Chung family (Chung Mong-koo and Chung Eui-sun combined) have slightly less than 30%.








Hyundai Glovis
Shares
%
Value (₩B)


Chung Eui-sun
8,732,290
23.29%
1,563.3


Den Norske Amerikalinje AS
4,125,000
11.00%
738.4


Chung Mong-koo
2,517,701
6.71%
450.4


Hyundai Motor
1,830,939
4.88%
327.6


HM CMK Foundation
1,671,018
4.46%
299.4


Chung Eui-sun+Chung Mong-koo
11,249,991
29.99%
2,013.1

Source: FnGuide

But starting next year, the threshold for listed companies will also become 20%.This is exactly why we keep hearing this rumor because Chung Eui-sun has to reduce his stake by 10%p so that the family-owned combined stake falls below 20%.

Glovis Block Deals by Chung & Buy Mobis Shares: Unlikely to Happen

South Korea

Hyundai Autoever Corp. provides information technology services. The Company offers system integration, system management, information system development, and other services. Hyundai Autoever offers services worldwide.

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Hyundai Autoever (307950 KS)

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Misunderstandings & Truth About Samchully & Daesung Holdings Entering KOSPI 200

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Potential Changes of KOSPI 200 Index Components in the November 2021 Rebalance

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Douglas Kim

Glovis Block Deals by Chung & Buy Mobis Shares: Unlikely to Happen

This post examines the Glovis block deals rumor by the Chung family and explains why it is unlikely to happen given the HMG restructuring dynamics.

Sanghyun Park

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