HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Since Imbruvica's sales continued to decline and Calquence hadn’t shown much growth in US since 23Q2, either Zanubrutinib gained more market share or the entire BTK inhibitors market is shrinking. </li>
<li>BeiGene's recent sluggish share price could be related to geopolitical conflicts/weak market sentiment.However, innovative drugs don’t involve supply chain security issues. There’s no need for US to sanction China's biotech.</li>
<li>We are relatively optimistic about BeiGene's 23Q4 sales growth. In our view, BeiGene’s reasonable market value is at least about US$18 billion. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beigene-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27352:1" rel="noopener">BeiGene (6160 HK)</a> is undervalued.   </li>
</ul>


Since Imbruvica's sales continued to decline and Calquence hadn’t shown much growth in US since 23Q2, either Zanubrutinib gained more market share or the entire BTK inhibitors market is shrinking. 
BeiGene's recent sluggish share price could be related to geopolitical conflicts/weak market sentiment.However, innovative drugs don’t involve supply chain security issues. There’s no need for US to sanction China's biotech.
We are relatively optimistic about BeiGene's 23Q4 sales growth. In our view, BeiGene’s reasonable market value is at least about US$18 billion. BeiGene (6160 HK) is undervalued.   


BeiGene (6160.HK/​BGNE.US/688235.CH) - 2023 Results Preview and Undervaluation Concerns

Zhejiang Orient Gene Biotech C / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The national centralized procurement of high-value medical consumables for intraocular lens (IOL) and medical consumables related to sports medicine released results, with lower than expected price reductions. </li>
<li>Despite anti-corruption campaign, the business/profit model validation process of Chinese Biotech has not slowed down. There’s a chance to see Chinese Biotech turn losses into profits in 2024-2025.</li>
<li>Zhejiang Orient Gene Biotech (688298 CH) once brought considerable returns to investors, but now the beautiful story is over.After deletion from CSI Medical Service Index, share price could remain weak.</li>
</ul>


The national centralized procurement of high-value medical consumables for intraocular lens (IOL) and medical consumables related to sports medicine released results, with lower than expected price reductions. 
Despite anti-corruption campaign, the business/profit model validation process of Chinese Biotech has not slowed down. There’s a chance to see Chinese Biotech turn losses into profits in 2024-2025.
Zhejiang Orient Gene Biotech (688298 CH) once brought considerable returns to investors, but now the beautiful story is over.After deletion from CSI Medical Service Index, share price could remain weak.


China Healthcare Weekly (Dec.1) - Medical Device VBP, Biotech to Breakeven Soon, Orient Gene Biotech

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI Emerging Markets / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In our prior EM Strategy (October 2) we discussed that as long as EEM-US is above our important line-in-the-sand at $37, we were buyers on the pullback.</li>
<li>This support level held and EEM-US now displays a bullish 3-month downtrend reversal as the DXY appears to be breaking below $105.70, all bullish signals signaling additional upside-- buy.</li>
<li>We are bullish as long as $36.50-$37 support holds on EEM-US. Our first target is $42, which is 1.5+ year resistance. Remain overweight India, and we're upgrading Poland/Greece to overweight</li>
</ul>


In our prior EM Strategy (October 2) we discussed that as long as EEM-US is above our important line-in-the-sand at $37, we were buyers on the pullback.
This support level held and EEM-US now displays a bullish 3-month downtrend reversal as the DXY appears to be breaking below $105.70, all bullish signals signaling additional upside-- buy.
We are bullish as long as $36.50-$37 support holds on EEM-US. Our first target is $42, which is 1.5+ year resistance. Remain overweight India, and we're upgrading Poland/Greece to overweight


MSCI EM Index Reversing 3-Month Downtrend -- Buy. Remain Overweight India, Upgrading Poland & Greece

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>HCM’s consolidated revenues from oncology/immunology increased 294% YoY to US$359mn in 1H23, mainly driven by the US$259mn income recognition related to the total US$400mn upfront payment received from Takeda.</li><li>The in-market product sales increased 16% YoY (25% at CER) to US$101mn in 1H23, among which sales of fruquintinib increased 12% YoY (20% at CER) to US$56mn, maintaining leadership in patient share (47%) in 3L CRC in China.</li><li>Surufatinib’s in-market sales in 1H23 increased 66% YoY (79% at CER) to US$23mn, driven by increase in DoT and additional hospital listings. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

HCM’s consolidated revenues from oncology/immunology increased 294% YoY to US$359mn in 1H23, mainly driven by the US$259mn income recognition related to the total US$400mn upfront payment received from Takeda.The in-market product sales increased 16% YoY (25% at CER) to US$101mn in 1H23, among which sales of fruquintinib increased 12% YoY (20% at CER) to US$56mn, maintaining leadership in patient share (47%) in 3L CRC in China.Surufatinib’s in-market sales in 1H23 increased 66% YoY (79% at CER) to US$23mn, driven by increase in DoT and additional hospital listings. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Hutchmed (13 HK) – Eyes on the FDA Approval of Fruquintinib in Nov

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>HUTCHMED developed Fruquintinib has demonstrated positive results in a Phase III FRESCO-2 study which reduced the risk of death by 34% in patients with previously treated metastatic colorectal cancer.</li>
<li>In addition, Fruquintinib also has been validated and accepted for regulatory review (for marketing authorization) by the European Medicines Agency (EMA) last week.</li>
<li>In January 2023, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/takeda-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11747:1" rel="noopener">Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP)</a> entered into an exclusive licensing agreement with HUTCHMED to further develop and commercialise Fruquintinib outside of Mainland China, Macau and Hong Kong.</li>
</ul>


HUTCHMED developed Fruquintinib has demonstrated positive results in a Phase III FRESCO-2 study which reduced the risk of death by 34% in patients with previously treated metastatic colorectal cancer.
In addition, Fruquintinib also has been validated and accepted for regulatory review (for marketing authorization) by the European Medicines Agency (EMA) last week.
In January 2023, Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP) entered into an exclusive licensing agreement with HUTCHMED to further develop and commercialise Fruquintinib outside of Mainland China, Macau and Hong Kong.


Takeda: Clinical Development of HUTCHMED’s Fruquintinib Progressing Well

Hong Kong

HUTCHMED (China) Limited develops, manufactures, and sells pharmaceutical products. The Company offers drugs for oncology and autoimmune diseases treatment. HUTCHMED (China) markets its products worldwide.

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Hutchmed China Ltd (13 HK)

BeiGene (6160.HK/BGNE.US/688235.CH) - 2023 Results Preview and Undervaluation Concerns

BeiGene's sluggish share price could be related to geopolitical conflicts/weak market sentiment. But there’s no need for US to sanction China's...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (Dec.1) - Medical Device VBP, Biotech to Breakeven Soon, Orient Gene Biotech

VBP result for intraocular lens/sports medicine consumables is better than expected.There’s a chance to see Chinese Biotech turn loss into profits...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

MSCI EM Index Reversing 3-Month Downtrend -- Buy. Remain Overweight India, Upgrading Poland & Greece

In our prior EM Strategy (10/2/23) we discussed that, if $EEM is above $37, we were buyers on the pullback. Support held and now EEM displays a...

Vermilion Research

Hutchmed (13 HK) – Eyes on the FDA Approval of Fruquintinib in Nov

HCM’s consolidated revenues from oncology/immunology increased 294% YoY to US$359mn in 1H23, mainly driven by the US$259mn income recognition

CMB International

Takeda: Clinical Development of HUTCHMED’s Fruquintinib Progressing Well

Fruquintinib has demonstrated positive results in a Phase III study while it has also been validated and accepted for regulatory review (MAA) by...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

BeiGene (6160.HK/​BGNE.US/688235.CH) - 2023 Results Preview and Undervaluation Concerns

BeiGene's sluggish share price could be related to geopolitical conflicts/weak market sentiment. But there’s no need for US to sanction China's...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (Dec.1) - Medical Device VBP, Biotech to Breakeven Soon, Orient Gene Biotech

VBP result for intraocular lens/sports medicine consumables is better than expected.There’s a chance to see Chinese Biotech turn loss into profits...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

MSCI EM Index Reversing 3-Month Downtrend -- Buy. Remain Overweight India, Upgrading Poland & Greece

In our prior EM Strategy (10/2/23) we discussed that, if $EEM is above $37, we were buyers on the pullback. Support held and now EEM displays a...

Vermilion Research

Hutchmed (13 HK) – Eyes on the FDA Approval of Fruquintinib in Nov

HCM’s consolidated revenues from oncology/immunology increased 294% YoY to US$359mn in 1H23, mainly driven by the US$259mn income recognition

CMB International

Takeda: Clinical Development of HUTCHMED’s Fruquintinib Progressing Well

Fruquintinib has demonstrated positive results in a Phase III study while it has also been validated and accepted for regulatory review (MAA) by...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

BeiGene (6160.HK/BGNE.US/688235.CH) - 2023 Results Preview and Undervaluation Concerns