HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Capital Markets

Hangzhou Jiuyuan Gene Engineering / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Based on current performance, Jiuyuan has lost growth momentum, showing signs of stagnant growth. The main reason is VBP. So far, Jiouting, Yinuojia, Jifuwei have been included in VBP.</li>
<li>Guyoudao is facing competitive pressure from both domestic and international competitors and could be finally included in VBP. JY29-2 is the next blockbuster product, but the prospects are not clear.</li>
<li>Jiuyuan’s market value is expected to be higher than Qyuns. Future valuation performance will depend on the progress of JY29-2 and the overall market situation of GLP-1s at that time</li>
</ul>


Based on current performance, Jiuyuan has lost growth momentum, showing signs of stagnant growth. The main reason is VBP. So far, Jiouting, Yinuojia, Jifuwei have been included in VBP.
Guyoudao is facing competitive pressure from both domestic and international competitors and could be finally included in VBP. JY29-2 is the next blockbuster product, but the prospects are not clear.
Jiuyuan’s market value is expected to be higher than Qyuns. Future valuation performance will depend on the progress of JY29-2 and the overall market situation of GLP-1s at that time


Pre-IPO Hangzhou Jiuyuan Gene Engineering (PHIP Updates) - The Future Prospects Are Not Optimistic

Healthcare Equity Analyst - Emerging & Dev Markets, daaimon

Avien Pillay

Healthcare Equity Analyst - Emerging & Dev Markets

daaimon

daaimon is an independent research company focusing on healthcare and consumer sectors across developed and emerging markets. We produce insightful research which challenges conventional thinking. In particular, we look for new ideas by testing consensus forecasts and markets expectations.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The obesity problem has escalated at an alarming rate in Asia. </li>
<li>Expect strong growth for GLP-1s over the next few years, however, companies that produce next-generation drugs will take the lead.</li>
<li>The significant increase in newly approved drugs will result in margin pressure - pricing will be key.</li>
</ul>


The obesity problem has escalated at an alarming rate in Asia. 
Expect strong growth for GLP-1s over the next few years, however, companies that produce next-generation drugs will take the lead.
The significant increase in newly approved drugs will result in margin pressure - pricing will be key.


<ul>
<li>Due to the popularity of GLP-1 target, the entire GLP-1 upstream and downstream industry chain has received great enthusiasm. We analyzed related investment opportunities but also concerns in this market.  </li>
<li>Domestic CXOs should focus on securing orders for overseas weight loss drugs. The market value increment brought by weight loss drugs to CXO should be higher than that of APIs.</li>
<li>Due to increasing competition/potential price war, how big the real market space is uncertain. So, the market value increment of weight loss drugs business for pharmaceutical companies could be lower-than-expected.</li>
</ul>


Due to the popularity of GLP-1 target, the entire GLP-1 upstream and downstream industry chain has received great enthusiasm. We analyzed related investment opportunities but also concerns in this market.  
Domestic CXOs should focus on securing orders for overseas weight loss drugs. The market value increment brought by weight loss drugs to CXO should be higher than that of APIs.
Due to increasing competition/potential price war, how big the real market space is uncertain. So, the market value increment of weight loss drugs business for pharmaceutical companies could be lower-than-expected.


China's Weight Loss Drug Market – The Investment Opportunities and the Risks Behind

Qyuns Therapeutics / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>The sales scale of drugs for autoimmune diseases in China is much lower than that in overseas markets. So, internationalization is inevitable for companies in this industry.</li>
<li>Qyuns’s candidates have to face fierce competition, with no advantage in R&amp;D progress.Since Qyuns mainly do clinical trials in China, its future valuation is hard to have big expansion potential.</li>
<li>Many investors may still “live in the illusion” for China biotech. We think Qyuns would not finally transform into a biopharma. Its valuation should be lower than Keymed.</li>
</ul>


The sales scale of drugs for autoimmune diseases in China is much lower than that in overseas markets. So, internationalization is inevitable for companies in this industry.
Qyuns’s candidates have to face fierce competition, with no advantage in R&amp;D progress.Since Qyuns mainly do clinical trials in China, its future valuation is hard to have big expansion potential.
Many investors may still “live in the illusion” for China biotech. We think Qyuns would not finally transform into a biopharma. Its valuation should be lower than Keymed.


Pre-IPO Qyuns Therapeutics - Conservative About the Outlook

Equity Bottom-Up

Huadong Medicine Co Ltd A / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We have discovered something interesting from the innovative drug evaluations disclosed by the NMPA over the years. It’s recommended to establish rational expectations for the investment return of biopharmaceutical industry.</li>
<li>We analyzed the different situations faced by Biotech in IPO/M&amp;A process, so as to help investors make rational judgments. R&amp;D team is likely to be cut regardless of the circumstances.</li>
<li>We updated views on Huadong. Its old businesses dragged down valuation. It may need to wait until Huadong delivers better-than-expected sales/profit growth in weight-loss management business before further boosting valuation.</li>
</ul>


We have discovered something interesting from the innovative drug evaluations disclosed by the NMPA over the years. It’s recommended to establish rational expectations for the investment return of biopharmaceutical industry.
We analyzed the different situations faced by Biotech in IPO/M&amp;A process, so as to help investors make rational judgments. R&amp;D team is likely to be cut regardless of the circumstances.
We updated views on Huadong. Its old businesses dragged down valuation. It may need to wait until Huadong delivers better-than-expected sales/profit growth in weight-loss management business before further boosting valuation.


China Healthcare Weekly (Sep.29) - Be Rational About Biotech Investment, R&D Team Layoffs, Huadong

China

Huadong Medicine Co., Ltd. wholesales and retails medicines, pharmaceutical preparations, biological products, and medical instruments.  Through its subsidiaries, the Company also manufactures antibiotic medicines and biochemical products.

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Huadong Medicine Co Ltd A (000963 CH)

Pre-IPO Hangzhou Jiuyuan Gene Engineering (PHIP Updates) - The Future Prospects Are Not Optimistic

Jiuyuan's growth momentum is stalling due to VBP. Guyoudao and JY29-2 face competition and uncertainty. Market value may surpass Qyuns. Future...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

The GLP-1 Landscape in Asia

First-gen GLP-1 impact may fall short of hype, demand still strong. Next-gen drugs promise better results, tolerance, price. Expect margin pressure...

daaimon

China's Weight Loss Drug Market – The Investment Opportunities and the Risks Behind

The GLP-1 target has been recognized as a blockbuster target, which has attracted great enthusiasm from investors.We analyzed related investment...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO Qyuns Therapeutics - Conservative About the Outlook

Qyuns’s pipeline lacks competitiveness, facing fierce competition.Together with bleak internationalization outlook, peak sales have obvious...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (Sep.29) - Be Rational About Biotech Investment, R&D Team Layoffs, Huadong

It’s advised to establish rational expectation for Biotech's investment return. R&D team will be cut eventually during M&A/IPO. Huadong's valuation...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Pre-IPO Hangzhou Jiuyuan Gene Engineering (PHIP Updates) - The Future Prospects Are Not Optimistic

​Jiuyuan's growth momentum is stalling due to VBP. Guyoudao and JY29-2 face competition and uncertainty. Market value may surpass Qyuns. Future...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

The GLP-1 Landscape in Asia

First-gen GLP-1 impact may fall short of hype, demand still strong. Next-gen drugs promise better results, tolerance, price. Expect margin pressure...

daaimon

China's Weight Loss Drug Market – The Investment Opportunities and the Risks Behind

The GLP-1 target has been recognized as a blockbuster target, which has attracted great enthusiasm from investors.We analyzed related investment...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO Qyuns Therapeutics - Conservative About the Outlook

Qyuns’s pipeline lacks competitiveness, facing fierce competition.Together with bleak internationalization outlook, peak sales have obvious...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (Sep.29) - Be Rational About Biotech Investment, R&D Team Layoffs, Huadong

It’s advised to establish rational expectation for Biotech's investment return. R&D team will be cut eventually during M&A/IPO. Huadong's valuation...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Jiuyuan's growth momentum is stalling due to VBP. Guyoudao and JY29-2 face competition and uncertainty. Market value may surpass Qyuns. Future...