China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>ACMR/981.HK/1347.HK: US outbound investment restrictions likely to exempt publicly traded securities (+/+/+)</li>
<li>NIO/1211 HK: Geely's sub-brand Zeekr cut price of its 001 model (-/-)</li>
<li>XPEV/NIO/BYD: Tesla China cuts Model Y prices and offers insurance subsidy for Model 3 (-/-/-)</li>
</ul>


ACMR/981.HK/1347.HK: US outbound investment restrictions likely to exempt publicly traded securities (+/+/+)
NIO/1211 HK: Geely's sub-brand Zeekr cut price of its 001 model (-/-)
XPEV/NIO/BYD: Tesla China cuts Model Y prices and offers insurance subsidy for Model 3 (-/-/-)


China TMT Update-ACMR/981.HK/1347.HK/NIO/1211.HK/XPEV/BYD-Tesla Cuts Model Y Prices/Geely Cuts Price

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

<ul>
<li>Foundry segment is on track to decline 15% YoY with no prospects of a meaningful H2 recovery</li>
<li>Inventory levels across smartphone, PC and consumer electronic supply chains remain elevated, plagued by lack-lustre end user demand. </li>
<li>At least some of the key players appear to be lowering prices but this is highly unlikely to stimulate end user demand and may actually make things worse</li>
</ul>


Foundry segment is on track to decline 15% YoY with no prospects of a meaningful H2 recovery
Inventory levels across smartphone, PC and consumer electronic supply chains remain elevated, plagued by lack-lustre end user demand. 
At least some of the key players appear to be lowering prices but this is highly unlikely to stimulate end user demand and may actually make things worse


Q2'23 Foundry Flounders As Inventory Stubbornly Lingers

Equity Bottom-Up

Hua Hong Semiconductor / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We expect Hua Hong to report C1Q23 top-line and non-IFRS net income in-line and (24%) vs. cons., respectively, missing mainly due to one-time costs. </li>
<li>Hua Hong’s post-A share IPO valuation is cheap at 0.7x P/B, but we expect that weakening industrials demand and a slow recovery to hamper shipments.</li>
<li>We maintain BUY but cut Hua Hong’s TP to HK$ 34 reflecting lowered wafer shipments estimates for FY24/25. Our TP implies 15x FY24 PE.</li>
</ul>


We expect Hua Hong to report C1Q23 top-line and non-IFRS net income in-line and (24%) vs. cons., respectively, missing mainly due to one-time costs. 
Hua Hong’s post-A share IPO valuation is cheap at 0.7x P/B, but we expect that weakening industrials demand and a slow recovery to hamper shipments.
We maintain BUY but cut Hua Hong’s TP to HK$ 34 reflecting lowered wafer shipments estimates for FY24/25. Our TP implies 15x FY24 PE.


[Hua Hong (1347 HK, BUY, TP HK$34) TP Change]: Valuation Is Attractive Post-Shanghai Listing

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>Lam Research and KLA reported in-line 2Q23 results but better GPM on improved product mix.</li><li>Looking into 2023, while Lam raised WFE spending on China-related and HBM demand, KLA maintained forecast of 20% YoY decline.</li><li>Both stayed cautious on low UTR in memory market (guidance of 40% to mid-40% YoY decline), but positive on AI demand to boost packaging business in FY23E. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Lam Research and KLA reported in-line 2Q23 results but better GPM on improved product mix.Looking into 2023, while Lam raised WFE spending on China-related and HBM demand, KLA maintained forecast of 20% YoY decline.Both stayed cautious on low UTR in memory market (guidance of 40% to mid-40% YoY decline), but positive on AI demand to boost packaging business in FY23E. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Technology – Implications of Lam Research and KLA 2Q23 results

<ul><li>TSMC unveiled an in-line 2Q23 results but guided slow 3Q recovery due to longer inventory correction and China weakness despite stronger AI demand.</li><li>Mgmt. guided down FY23E revenue to 10% YoY decline from prior low to mid-single digit decline on macro headwinds, slower China recovery and demand weakness.</li><li>As such, we believe market will turn more conservative on 3Q inventory correction and 4Q demand recovery. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

TSMC unveiled an in-line 2Q23 results but guided slow 3Q recovery due to longer inventory correction and China weakness despite stronger AI demand.Mgmt. guided down FY23E revenue to 10% YoY decline from prior low to mid-single digit decline on macro headwinds, slower China recovery and demand weakness.As such, we believe market will turn more conservative on 3Q inventory correction and 4Q demand recovery. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Technology – Implications of TSMC 2Q23: Slower 3Q and China Recovery

China

Hua Hong Semiconductor Limited manufactures semiconductors on 200mm wafers for specialty applications. The Company's products are used in the consumer electronic, communication, computing and industrial, and automotive industries.

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Hua Hong Semiconductor (1347 HK)

China TMT Update-ACMR/981.HK/1347.HK/NIO/1211.HK/XPEV/BYD-Tesla Cuts Model Y Prices/Geely Cuts Price

ACMR/981.HK/1347.HK: US outbound investment restrictions;NIO/1211 HK: Geely's sub-brand Zeekr cut price;XPEV/NIO/BYD: Tesla China cuts Model Y...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Q2'23 Foundry Flounders As Inventory Stubbornly Lingers

Foundry heading for 15% YoY decline with no prospect of a meaningful H2 recovery. Some key players may be lowering prices. This is unlikely to...

William Keating

[Hua Hong (1347 HK, BUY, TP HK$34) TP Change]: Valuation Is Attractive Post-Shanghai Listing

We maintain BUY but cut Hua Hong’s TP to HK$ 34 reflecting lowered wafer shipments estimates for FY24/25. Our TP implies 15x FY24 PE.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China Technology – Implications of Lam Research and KLA 2Q23 results

Looking into 2023, while Lam raised WFE spending on China-related and HBM demand, KLA maintained forecast of 20% YoY decline.

CMB International

China Technology – Implications of TSMC 2Q23: Slower 3Q and China Recovery

TSMC unveiled an in-line 2Q23 results but guided slow 3Q recovery due to longer inventory correction and China weakness despite stronger AI demand.

CMB International

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