Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

*Management Call Doesn’t Allay Fears: FY 2Q21 results were significantly driven a loan loss provision decline of INR 18.1 bn (16.0%) despite much weaker credit metrics.  We find that reserves were light in the neighborbood of INR 1.1 tn  - nearly four years of pre-tax results or 61% of market-cap. The recent virtual call held by a competitor unfortunately did not allay our concern; and*Other Items Discussed: State Bank of India (SBIN.IN) [SBI] did reiterate its guidance for problem loan formation (slippages and restructuring) at 2.5% of loans outstanding in FY21. While SBI’s CET 1 ratio stood at 10.5% as of FY 2Q21,our calculated loss reserve shortfall would suggest that SBI has further wood to chop in this area.In addition, SBI is confident that it will be able to enhance its digital platform YONO into a more robust and scalable platform.

*Management Call Doesn’t Allay Fears: FY 2Q21 results were significantly driven a loan loss provision decline of INR 18.1 bn (16.0%) despite much weaker credit metrics.  We find that reserves were light in the neighborbood of INR 1.1 tn  - nearly four years of pre-tax results or 61% of market-cap. The recent virtual call held by a competitor unfortunately did not allay our concern; and*Other Items Discussed: State Bank of India (SBIN.IN) [SBI] did reiterate its guidance for problem loan formation (slippages and restructuring) at 2.5% of loans outstanding in FY21. While SBI’s CET 1 ratio stood at 10.5% as of FY 2Q21,our calculated loss reserve shortfall would suggest that SBI has further wood to chop in this area.In addition, SBI is confident that it will be able to enhance its digital platform YONO into a more robust and scalable platform.

State Bank of India – Reserve Shortfall Needs To Be Addressed

*Lakshmi Vilas Bank Problems Appear Bigger Than DBS Expects: By our calculation and based on LVB’s FY 2Q21 results, the company would appear to be insolvent by the amount of INR 39 bn – nearly 56% greater than the DBS Bank India capital infusion; LVB loses money on an operating basis prior to loss provisions, as revenues (no clarity on what is recurring) of INR 15.4 bn are less than operating expenses of INR 16.0 bn – or by 3.7% at FY 2Q21; et al;  and  *Cram-down Highlights That LVB’s Stated Numbers May Be Wrong:  Prior to the amalgamation, INR 318.2 bn (USD 43 mn) LVB Basel III-compliant Tier 2 bonds (Series VIII, Series IX, and Series X) were written down under the direction of the RBI. To the best of our knowledge, this would appear to be the first time that a cram-down procedure was applied in Asia. As a result, no investor should take any investment in a troubled Indian financial institution for granted. Ultimately, this will make the financial sector more efficient – but calls the sanctity of their audited results into questions as well.

*Lakshmi Vilas Bank Problems Appear Bigger Than DBS Expects: By our calculation and based on LVB’s FY 2Q21 results, the company would appear to be insolvent by the amount of INR 39 bn – nearly 56% greater than the DBS Bank India capital infusion; LVB loses money on an operating basis prior to loss provisions, as revenues (no clarity on what is recurring) of INR 15.4 bn are less than operating expenses of INR 16.0 bn – or by 3.7% at FY 2Q21; et al;  and  *Cram-down Highlights That LVB’s Stated Numbers May Be Wrong:  Prior to the amalgamation, INR 318.2 bn (USD 43 mn) LVB Basel III-compliant Tier 2 bonds (Series VIII, Series IX, and Series X) were written down under the direction of the RBI. To the best of our knowledge, this would appear to be the first time that a cram-down procedure was applied in Asia. As a result, no investor should take any investment in a troubled Indian financial institution for granted. Ultimately, this will make the financial sector more efficient – but calls the sanctity of their audited results into questions as well. 

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Brookfield India Real Estate Trust / Equity Capital Markets

<div><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/brookfield-india-real-estate-trust" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31036:1" rel="noopener">Brookfield India Real Estate Trust (BIREIT IN)</a> (BREIT from hereon) aims to raise up to US$600m in its India IPO. BREIT aims to be the leading owner of high quality income producing commercial real estate assets in key gateway Indian markets. Its initial portfolio consists of 14.0msf, with call options to acquire a further 8.3msf and rights of first offer on an additional 6.7msf.</div><div>Its initial portfolio consists of four large campus-format office parks located in Mumbai, Gurugram, Noida and Kolkata. Of the initial 14msf, 9.8msf was completed, 0.6msf was under construction and 3.6msf was reserved for future development potential. The initial portfolio is 96% occupied and had a weighted average lease expiry (WALE) of 6.8 years.</div><div>
The portfolio has recorded steady net operating income (NOI) growth in the past of 6.46% and 7.64% in FY19 and FY20, respectively. Future growth as well appears promising with NOI for the initial portfolio expected to grow by 20% over FY20-23. The call and ROFO assets provide further avenues for growth.
In my previous note, I spoke about the positive aspects of the deal, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/brookfields-india-real-estate-trust-pre-ipo-the-positives-provides-different-geographic-exposure" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Brookfields India Real Estate Trust Pre-IPO - The Positives- Provides Different Geographic Exposure</a>.
In this note, I'll talk about the not so flattering aspects.
</div>

Brookfield India Real Estate Trust (BIREIT IN) (BREIT from hereon) aims to raise up to US$600m in its India IPO. BREIT aims to be the leading owner of high quality income producing commercial real estate assets in key gateway Indian markets. Its initial portfolio consists of 14.0msf, with call options to acquire a further 8.3msf and rights of first offer on an additional 6.7msf.Its initial portfolio consists of four large campus-format office parks located in Mumbai, Gurugram, Noida and Kolkata. Of the initial 14msf, 9.8msf was completed, 0.6msf was under construction and 3.6msf was reserved for future development potential. The initial portfolio is 96% occupied and had a weighted average lease expiry (WALE) of 6.8 years.
The portfolio has recorded steady net operating income (NOI) growth in the past of 6.46% and 7.64% in FY19 and FY20, respectively. Future growth as well appears promising with NOI for the initial portfolio expected to grow by 20% over FY20-23. The call and ROFO assets provide further avenues for growth.
In my previous note, I spoke about the positive aspects of the deal, Brookfields India Real Estate Trust Pre-IPO - The Positives- Provides Different Geographic Exposure.
In this note, I'll talk about the not so flattering aspects.


Brookfields India Real Estate Trust Pre-IPO- The Negatives- Asset Details Leave Questions Unanswered

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/brookfield-india-real-estate-trust" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31036:1" rel="noopener">Brookfield India Real Estate Trust (BIREIT IN)</a> (BREIT from hereon) aims to raise up to US$600m in its India IPO. BREIT aims to be the leading owner of high quality income producing commercial real estate assets in key gateway Indian markets. Its initial portfolio consists of 14.0msf, with call options to acquire a further 8.3msf and rights of first offer on an additional 6.7msf.Its initial portfolio consists of four large campus-format office parks located in Mumbai, Gurugram, Noida and Kolkata. Of the initial 14msf, 9.8msf was completed, 0.6msf was under construction and 3.6msf was reserved for future development potential. The initial portfolio is 96% occupied and had a weighted average lease expiry (WALE) of 6.8 years.The portfolio has recorded steady net operating income (NOI) growth in the past of 6.46% and 7.64% in FY19 and FY20, respectively. Future growth as well appears promising with NOI for the initial portfolio expected to grow by 20% over FY20-23. The call and ROFO assets provide further avenues for growth.

Brookfield India Real Estate Trust (BIREIT IN) (BREIT from hereon) aims to raise up to US$600m in its India IPO. BREIT aims to be the leading owner of high quality income producing commercial real estate assets in key gateway Indian markets. Its initial portfolio consists of 14.0msf, with call options to acquire a further 8.3msf and rights of first offer on an additional 6.7msf.Its initial portfolio consists of four large campus-format office parks located in Mumbai, Gurugram, Noida and Kolkata. Of the initial 14msf, 9.8msf was completed, 0.6msf was under construction and 3.6msf was reserved for future development potential. The initial portfolio is 96% occupied and had a weighted average lease expiry (WALE) of 6.8 years.The portfolio has recorded steady net operating income (NOI) growth in the past of 6.46% and 7.64% in FY19 and FY20, respectively. Future growth as well appears promising with NOI for the initial portfolio expected to grow by 20% over FY20-23. The call and ROFO assets provide further avenues for growth.

Brookfields India Real Estate Trust Pre-IPO - The Positives- Provides Different Geographic Exposure

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

*Adding To The Confusion Again: Just when we thought Indian banking couldn’t get any muddier, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) released its Report of the Internal Working Group (IWG) to Review Extant Ownership Guidelines and Corporate Structure for Indian Private Sector Banks which convened on June 12, 2020; and*Proposed Changes: The IWG has proposed: a) a higher promoter stake cap of 26% (from 15% currently); b) harmonization of corporate structures to non-operative financial holding companies (NOFHC); c) large corporates can be given a banking license subject to conditions and checks; and d) large non-bank financial companies (NBFCs) with assets greater than INR 500 bn can be considered for a banking license.

*Adding To The Confusion Again: Just when we thought Indian banking couldn’t get any muddier, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) released its Report of the Internal Working Group (IWG) to Review Extant Ownership Guidelines and Corporate Structure for Indian Private Sector Banks which convened on June 12, 2020; and*Proposed Changes: The IWG has proposed: a) a higher promoter stake cap of 26% (from 15% currently); b) harmonization of corporate structures to non-operative financial holding companies (NOFHC); c) large corporates can be given a banking license subject to conditions and checks; and d) large non-bank financial companies (NBFCs) with assets greater than INR 500 bn can be considered for a banking license.

Reserve Bank of India – How Simple Becomes Really Complicated

India

Housing Development Finance Corporation Ltd. HDFC provides housing finance company. The Company provides wide range of housing loans, loan for home improvement, extensions, top ups, and non housing loans and loans for non resident Indian (NRI). HDFC serves customers in India, kuwait, Singapore, Oman, UAE, and the United Kingdom.

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HDFC Limited (HDFC IN)

State Bank of India – Reserve Shortfall Needs To Be Addressed

STATE BANK OF INDIA: Recent Call Suggests No Real Progress On Significant Reserve Shortfall, And That Another Capital Raise Not Out Of Question

Thomas J. Monaco

DBS Group Holdings – The LVB Cram Down

DBS GROUP HOLDINGS: The LVB Cram-down Raises Significant Questions Over Potential Cost For DBS, Raises Significant Concerns Over Audited Financial...

Thomas J. Monaco

Brookfields India Real Estate Trust Pre-IPO- The Negatives- Asset Details Leave Questions Unanswered

Brookfield India Real Estate Trust aims to raise up to US$600m in its India IPO. BREIT aims to be the leading owner of high quality income...

Sumeet Singh

Brookfields India Real Estate Trust Pre-IPO - The Positives- Provides Different Geographic Exposure

Brookfield India Real Estate Trust aims to raise up to US$600m in its India IPO. BREIT aims to be the leading owner of high quality income...

Sumeet Singh

Reserve Bank of India – How Simple Becomes Really Complicated

RESERVE BANK OF INDIA: New Just when we thought Indian banking couldn’t get any muddier, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) released its Report of the...

Thomas J. Monaco

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