Asia biased macro & technical analysis, Untying The Gordian Knot

Untying The Gordian Knot

Asia biased macro & technical analysis

A differentiated process with a primary focus on Asia. Technical Analysis as core and Macro drivers that could bring the view to fruition & changes that could make the idea fall apart. The objective is to be the best in class, hence corner shop.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>It all went a bit potty in 2021-2022, and the market went from overextended lack of common sense to some mean reversion.</li><li>The need for QE and negative yields for sustaining innovation and maintaining valuation VC investments, Marked to Myth investments, are finally being called out.   </li><li>In short, Head Fakes are red herrings that divert attention from what is already happening.  </li></ul>

It all went a bit potty in 2021-2022, and the market went from overextended lack of common sense to some mean reversion.The need for QE and negative yields for sustaining innovation and maintaining valuation VC investments, Marked to Myth investments, are finally being called out.   In short, Head Fakes are red herrings that divert attention from what is already happening.  

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adani-enterprises-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:245:1" rel="noopener">Adani Enterprises (ADE IN)</a>  is looking to raise INR200bn (US$2.4bn) via a further public offering. The company has obtained board approval and is now awaiting shareholder approval.</li>
<li>It is the flagship company of the Adani Group. The group’s listed entities' stock performance over the past few years has made the founder one of the richest persons globally.</li>
<li>However, the stock is expensive and has had some issues in the past. In this note, we take an early look at the possible placement and its impact.</li>
</ul>



Adani Enterprises (ADE IN)  is looking to raise INR200bn (US$2.4bn) via a further public offering. The company has obtained board approval and is now awaiting shareholder approval.
It is the flagship company of the Adani Group. The group’s listed entities' stock performance over the past few years has made the founder one of the richest persons globally.
However, the stock is expensive and has had some issues in the past. In this note, we take an early look at the possible placement and its impact.


Adani Enterprise US$2.4bn Raising Early Look - Lots to Think About: Controversies, Debt, Grand Plans

<ul>
<li>In Dec 2021, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/star-health-allied-insurance-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34199:1" rel="noopener">Star Health (STARHEAL IN)</a> (SHAI), the largest private health and retail health insurance company in India, raised around US$851m in its India IPO.</li>
<li>SHAI insured 20.5m people in FY21. SHAI primarily offers retail health insurance which accounted for 87.9% of its FY21 GWP. Individual agents accounted for 97% of its FY21 GWP.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the upcoming lockup expiry.</li>
</ul>


In Dec 2021, Star Health (STARHEAL IN) (SHAI), the largest private health and retail health insurance company in India, raised around US$851m in its India IPO.
SHAI insured 20.5m people in FY21. SHAI primarily offers retail health insurance which accounted for 87.9% of its FY21 GWP. Individual agents accounted for 97% of its FY21 GWP.
In this note, we will talk about the upcoming lockup expiry.


Star Health IPO Lockup - Owned by Financial Investors, US$3.0bn Worth Shares Are Well in the Money

Global Emerging Market Equities, Propitious Research

Wium Malan, CFA

Global Emerging Market Equities

Independent, Fundamental Quantitative Research

Propitious Research

Fully independent, fundamental and quantitative equity research, focused on companies in the Telecommunication, Media, Technology, Internet and Healthcare sectors in the Global Emerging Markets. Idea generation focused on Quality stocks, trading below their intrinsic Value, with sound Corporate Governance.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The 200 largest weighted companies in the GEM index reported average EPS growth of +12.8%y/y for 3Q22-to-date, a significant slowdown from what was reported for 2Q22.</li>
<li>60% of companies delivered positive sales surprise, same as in 2Q22, whilst 65% delivered positive EPS surprise, up from 56% in 2Q22.</li>
<li>Historically, there has been a significant difference in relative share price performance between the largest positive versus negative surprise generators, for 3 months after the reporting date.</li>
</ul>


The 200 largest weighted companies in the GEM index reported average EPS growth of +12.8%y/y for 3Q22-to-date, a significant slowdown from what was reported for 2Q22.
60% of companies delivered positive sales surprise, same as in 2Q22, whilst 65% delivered positive EPS surprise, up from 56% in 2Q22.
Historically, there has been a significant difference in relative share price performance between the largest positive versus negative surprise generators, for 3 months after the reporting date.


Global Emerging Markets: Reporting Season Summary, 3Q2022

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Lifestyle International Holdings / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There are 49 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li>Two new deals were discussed on Smartkarma: the Tangs' Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chip-eng-seng-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6441:1" rel="noopener">Chip Eng Seng (CHIP SP)</a>; and the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mori-trust-sogo-reit-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8985:1" rel="noopener">Mori Trust Sogo Reit (8961 JP)</a>/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mori-trust-sogo-reit-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8985:1" rel="noopener">Mori Trust Sogo Reit (8961 JP)</a> merger. </li>
<li>Key updates took place for: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pendal-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15795:1" rel="noopener">Pendal Group (PDL AU)</a>/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/perpetual-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:599:1" rel="noopener">Perpetual Ltd (PPT AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/total-access-communication" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:948:1" rel="noopener">Total Access Communication (DTAC TB)</a>/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/true-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8:1" rel="noopener">True Corp Pcl (TRUE TB)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lifestyle-international-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:112:1" rel="noopener">Lifestyle International Holdings (1212 HK)</a>.</li>
</ul>


There are 49 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
Two new deals were discussed on Smartkarma: the Tangs' Offer for Chip Eng Seng (CHIP SP); and the Mori Trust Sogo Reit (8961 JP)/Mori Trust Sogo Reit (8961 JP) merger. 
Key updates took place for: Pendal Group (PDL AU)/Perpetual Ltd (PPT AU), Total Access Communication (DTAC TB)/True Corp Pcl (TRUE TB), and Lifestyle International Holdings (1212 HK).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Chip Eng Seng, Mori Trust, Pendal/Pendal, DTAC/True

India

Housing Development Finance Corporation Ltd. HDFC provides housing finance company. The Company provides wide range of housing loans, loan for home improvement, extensions, top ups, and non housing loans and loans for non resident Indian (NRI). HDFC serves customers in India, kuwait, Singapore, Oman, UAE, and the United Kingdom.

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HDFC Limited (HDFC IN)

Head Fakes

The need for QE and negative yields for sustaining innovation and maintaining valuation VC investments, Marked to Myth investments, are finally...

Untying The Gordian Knot

Adani Enterprise US$2.4bn Raising Early Look - Lots to Think About: Controversies, Debt, Grand Plans

Adani Enterprises (ADE IN) is looking to raise INR200bn (US$2.4bn) via a further public offering. The company has obtained board approval and is...

Sumeet Singh

Star Health IPO Lockup - Owned by Financial Investors, US$3.0bn Worth Shares Are Well in the Money

In Dec 2021, Star Health (STARHEAL IN) (SHAI), the largest private health and retail health insurance company in India, raised around US$851m in...

Sumeet Singh

Global Emerging Markets: Reporting Season Summary, 3Q2022

In this quarterly insight, we analyse recent GEM reporting trends with reference to Sales- and EPS growth, size and percentage of positive...

Wium Malan, CFA

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Chip Eng Seng, Mori Trust, Pendal/Pendal, DTAC/True

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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