Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

China Traditional Chinese Medicine / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>I tally 42  - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li>Four new deals: scrip mergers for<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wide-bay-australia-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18747:1" rel="noopener">Auswide Bank (ABA AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/latin-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8770:1" rel="noopener">Latin Resources (LRS AU)</a> &amp; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/platinum-asset-management" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:914:1" rel="noopener">Platinum Asset Management (PTM AU)</a>; and the Tender Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trancom-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13043:1" rel="noopener">Trancom Co Ltd (9058 JP)</a>.</li>
<li>Key updates took place on: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pacific-smiles-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2891:1" rel="noopener">Pacific Smiles (PSQ AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-traditional-chinese-medicine" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:351:1" rel="noopener">China TCM (570 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/greatview-aseptic-packaging" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10802:1" rel="noopener">Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shin-kong-financial-holding" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15351:1" rel="noopener">Shin Kong Financial Holding (2888 TT)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)</a>.</li>
</ul>


I tally 42  - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
Four new deals: scrip mergers forAuswide Bank (ABA AU), Latin Resources (LRS AU) &amp; Platinum Asset Management (PTM AU); and the Tender Offer for Trancom Co Ltd (9058 JP).
Key updates took place on: Pacific Smiles (PSQ AU), China TCM (570 HK), Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468 HK), Shin Kong Financial Holding (2888 TT), and Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: TCM, Auswide, Latin Resources, Platinum Asset, Trancom, Pacific Smiles

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK)</a> was (finally) included in the Shanghai/Shenzhen-HK Connect programs; on the same day a Cayman court uplifted a BABA dissenter's merger price by 659%.</li>
<li>MBK has teamed up with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/young-poong-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11740:1" rel="noopener">Young Poong (000670 KS)</a> to secure control of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-zinc-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17944:1" rel="noopener">Korea Zinc (010130 KS)</a> via Partial Tender Offers for Korea Zinc and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/young-poong-precision-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16188:1" rel="noopener">Young Poong Precision (036560 KS)</a>
</li>
<li>Like all long-dated arbs, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shinko-electric-industries" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15066:1" rel="noopener">Shinko Electric (6967 JP)</a> is really about buying dips, then lightening up when it gets tighter, as long as the opinion about eventual result/path is unchanged.</li>
</ul>



Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK) was (finally) included in the Shanghai/Shenzhen-HK Connect programs; on the same day a Cayman court uplifted a BABA dissenter's merger price by 659%.
MBK has teamed up with Young Poong (000670 KS) to secure control of Korea Zinc (010130 KS) via Partial Tender Offers for Korea Zinc and Young Poong Precision (036560 KS)

Like all long-dated arbs, Shinko Electric (6967 JP) is really about buying dips, then lightening up when it gets tighter, as long as the opinion about eventual result/path is unchanged.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Alibaba, Young Poong/Korea Zinc, Shinko Electric, Guotai Junan/Haitong Sec

<ul>
<li>I tally 40 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li>Six new deals: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hotel-property-investments" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9850:1" rel="noopener">Hotel Property (HPI AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guotai-junan-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13438:1" rel="noopener">Guotai (1788 HK)</a>/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haitong-securities-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5665:1" rel="noopener">Haitong  (6837 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/joban-kosan-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2826:1" rel="noopener">Joban Kosan (9675 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dyna-mac-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16153:1" rel="noopener">Dyna Mac (DMHL SP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-zinc-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17944:1" rel="noopener">Korea Zinc (010130 KS)</a>/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/young-poong-precision-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16188:1" rel="noopener">Young Poong Precision (036560 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hulic-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:388:1" rel="noopener">Hulic (3003 JP)</a>.</li>
<li>Key updates took place on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/namoi-cotton-co-operative" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10711:1" rel="noopener">Namoi Cotton Co Operative (NAM AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fuji-soft-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17504:1" rel="noopener">Fuji Soft (9749 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/descente-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8225:1" rel="noopener">Descente (8114 JP)</a>, &amp; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/silverlake-axis-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14150:1" rel="noopener">Silverlake Axis (SILV SP)</a>.</li>
</ul>


I tally 40 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
Six new deals: Hotel Property (HPI AU), Guotai (1788 HK)/Haitong  (6837 HK), Joban Kosan (9675 JP), Dyna Mac (DMHL SP), Korea Zinc (010130 KS)/Young Poong Precision (036560 KS), Hulic (3003 JP).
Key updates took place on Namoi Cotton Co Operative (NAM AU), Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP), Fuji Soft (9749 JP), Descente (8114 JP), &amp; Silverlake Axis (SILV SP).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Seven & I, Hotel Property, Hulic, Joban Kosan, Dyna Mac, Fuji Soft, Descente

Leading Independent Investment Research, Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar

Leading Independent Investment Research

Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar, Inc. is a leading provider of independent investment research in North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia. We offer an extensive line of products and services for individual investors, financial advisors, asset managers, and retirement plan providers and sponsors. 

Morningstar provides data on more than 500,000 investment offerings, including stocks, mutual funds, and similar vehicles, along with real-time global market data on more than 16 million equities, indexes, futures, options, commodities, and precious metals, in addition to foreign exchange and Treasury markets. Morningstar also offers investment management services through its investment advisory subsidiaries, with more than $180 billion in assets under advisement or management as of June 30, 2015. We have operations in 27 countries.

Download the Morningstar Fact Sheet : http://corporate.morningstar.com/US/documents/MarketingFactSheets/AboutMorningstarFactsheet.pdf

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

As a consequence of increasing global risks, tougher regulatory demands, intensifying pressure on net interest margins, higher bad debts and lower than expected returns on equity we reduce earnings forecasts, fair value estimates and rebase medium- to longer-term dividend payout ratios lower to more sustainable long-term levels for three of the four wide moat-rated Australian banks: Commonwealth Bank of Australia, National Australia Bank and Westpac Banking Corporation. We cut Australia and New Zealand Banking Group's earnings forecasts and fair value estimate in March 2016 and now rebase its longer-term dividend payout ratio lower. Our preferred banks are the big retail-focused, New South Wales-based, banks Westpac and Commonwealth Bank due to their lower risk profiles, higher ROEs, higher NIMs, lower cost/income ratios, consistently lower-loan-loss rates, less volatility in earnings, and larger exposures to the strongly performing New South Wales economy.Analyst: David Ellis

As a consequence of increasing global risks, tougher regulatory demands, intensifying pressure on net interest margins, higher bad debts and lower than expected returns on equity we reduce earnings forecasts, fair value estimates and rebase medium- to longer-term dividend payout ratios lower to more sustainable long-term levels for three of the four wide moat-rated Australian banks: Commonwealth Bank of Australia, National Australia Bank and Westpac Banking Corporation. We cut Australia and New Zealand Banking Group's earnings forecasts and fair value estimate in March 2016 and now rebase its longer-term dividend payout ratio lower. Our preferred banks are the big retail-focused, New South Wales-based, banks Westpac and Commonwealth Bank due to their lower risk profiles, higher ROEs, higher NIMs, lower cost/income ratios, consistently lower-loan-loss rates, less volatility in earnings, and larger exposures to the strongly performing New South Wales economy.Analyst: David Ellis

Challenges Mount for the Wide Moat-Rated Australian Banks

FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

Macroeconomics

We think the case is clear for the RBA to cut rates tomorrow and are predicting this outcome.  The much lower core inflation reading, evidence of tightening bank credit conditions, some softening recently in credit growth, cooler job vacancies, a stronger AUD, some renewed doubts on China and timing of the 2 July election suggest the RBA needs to be decisive and get ahead of expectations.  Consequently we see further weakness in the AUD and continue to favour gold as we discussed last week outlining risks in China that may spill over to global asset markets and the rebounding JPY that may push the BoJ toward more easing.

We think the case is clear for the RBA to cut rates tomorrow and are predicting this outcome.  The much lower core inflation reading, evidence of tightening bank credit conditions, some softening recently in credit growth, cooler job vacancies, a stronger AUD, some renewed doubts on China and timing of the 2 July election suggest the RBA needs to be decisive and get ahead of expectations.  Consequently we see further weakness in the AUD and continue to favour gold as we discussed last week outlining risks in China that may spill over to global asset markets and the rebounding JPY that may push the BoJ toward more easing.

Australia

Hotel Property Investments owns a portfolio of properties.  The Company's properties consist of pubs, detached bottle shops and other on-site specialty stores, which are used to generate capital returns for its security holders. Hotel Property Investment's properties are located throughout Queensland and South Australia.

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Hotel Property Investments (HPI AU)

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: TCM, Auswide, Latin Resources, Platinum Asset, Trancom, Pacific Smiles

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week in Event SPACE: Alibaba, Young Poong/Korea Zinc, Shinko Electric, Guotai Junan/Haitong Sec

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Seven & I, Hotel Property, Hulic, Joban Kosan, Dyna Mac, Fuji Soft, Descente

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Challenges Mount for the Wide Moat-Rated Australian Banks

As a consequence of increasing global risks, tougher regulatory demands, intensifying pressure on net interest margins, higher bad debts and lower...

Morningstar, Inc.

AmpGFX - RBA Cut the Obvious Decision

We think the case is clear for the RBA to cut rates tomorrow and are predicting this outcome. The much lower core inflation reading, evidence of...

Greg Gibbs

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