Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index</a> is at a turning point: investors want to know if the current rally can continue into April.</li>
<li>Our MONTHLY seasonal matrix model indicates that to see the index rallying in April, usually we should have a negative close in March, so this week will be crucial. </li>
<li>Buy between 16281 and 15924 to ride the continuation of the rally in April.</li>
</ul>


The Hang Seng Index is at a turning point: investors want to know if the current rally can continue into April.
Our MONTHLY seasonal matrix model indicates that to see the index rallying in April, usually we should have a negative close in March, so this week will be crucial. 
Buy between 16281 and 15924 to ride the continuation of the rally in April.


EQD | The Hang Seng Index's Crucial Fork Is at the End of March

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index</a> is rallying and could co higher this week but it seems there isn't much room to go really higher.</li>
<li>A good target to cover your LONG holdings would be 17500, for this coming week and/or the following week.</li>
<li>A pullback this coming week is also possible, so it's not sure the index can rally more from here, or at least not without some correction first.</li>
</ul>


The Hang Seng Index is rallying and could co higher this week but it seems there isn't much room to go really higher.
A good target to cover your LONG holdings would be 17500, for this coming week and/or the following week.
A pullback this coming week is also possible, so it's not sure the index can rally more from here, or at least not without some correction first.


EQD | Hang Seng (HSI): How Far Can It Rally Now?

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index</a> closed the month of February up, printing a +6.63% return, after months of uninterrupted downtrend.</li>
<li>The big question at this point is: has the index reached the turning point that many have been waiting for?</li>
<li>In this insight we will try to analyze what the possible short-term trend could be for the index after the recent trend reversal.</li>
</ul>


The Hang Seng Index closed the month of February up, printing a +6.63% return, after months of uninterrupted downtrend.
The big question at this point is: has the index reached the turning point that many have been waiting for?
In this insight we will try to analyze what the possible short-term trend could be for the index after the recent trend reversal.


EQD | The Hang Seng Index's Turning Point

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index</a> is rallying as anticipated in a previous insight, but it could stop this week and pullback a bit.  </li>
<li>3 possible trades available: go SHORT and hold to profit from a re-start of the downtrend, go SHORT and close after 1 week, wait the pullback and go LONG.</li>
<li>It's unclear at the moment if the index will go lower or rebound after the upcoming pullback.</li>
</ul>


The Hang Seng Index is rallying as anticipated in a previous insight, but it could stop this week and pullback a bit.  
3 possible trades available: go SHORT and hold to profit from a re-start of the downtrend, go SHORT and close after 1 week, wait the pullback and go LONG.
It's unclear at the moment if the index will go lower or rebound after the upcoming pullback.


EQD | HSI Rally: Possible Brief Stop This Week

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>Along with its fiscal 2024 results, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba (9988 HK)</a> announced that they were preparing for their primary listing in Hong Kong and the conversion was expected to complete by August.</li>
<li>If the conversion is completed by the end of August, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba (9988 HK)</a> could be added to Southbound Stock Connect in September and that could bring in significant flows.</li>
<li>We do not forecast any passive inflows due to the change with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK)</a> capped at 8% of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">HSI</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">HSCEI</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">HSTECH</a> indices.</li>
</ul>


Along with its fiscal 2024 results, Alibaba (9988 HK) announced that they were preparing for their primary listing in Hong Kong and the conversion was expected to complete by August.
If the conversion is completed by the end of August, Alibaba (9988 HK) could be added to Southbound Stock Connect in September and that could bring in significant flows.
We do not forecast any passive inflows due to the change with Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK) capped at 8% of the HSI, HSCEI and HSTECH indices.


Alibaba (9988 HK): Dual Primary Listing & Potential Southbound Flows

Hong Kong

The Hang Seng Index is a free-float capitalization-weighted index of a selection of companies from the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong. The components of the index are divided into four subindices: Commerce and Industry, Finance, Utilities, and Properties. The index was developed with a base level of 100 as of July 31, 1964.

Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)

EQD | The Hang Seng Index's Crucial Fork Is at the End of March

Many investors are wondering if the Hang Seng Index rally can continue into April: the last week of March will be crucial to determine the index's...

Nico Rosti

EQD | Hang Seng (HSI): How Far Can It Rally Now?

Hang Seng Index rallying but may not have much room to go higher, target to cover LONG holdings at 17500 for next week, possible pullback ahead.

Nico Rosti

EQD | The Hang Seng Index's Turning Point

The Hang Seng Index closed February with a +6.63% return, sparking speculation on whether it has hit a turning point after months of decline. Read...

Nico Rosti

EQD | HSI Rally: Possible Brief Stop This Week

The Hang Seng Index is rallying but may pull back this week, offering possible trades to go SHORT (or go LONG after the pullback). Uncertainty...

Nico Rosti

Alibaba (9988 HK): Dual Primary Listing & Potential Southbound Flows

Alibaba expect to convert to a Primary Listing on the HKEX by end August. That could mean inclusion in Southbound Stock Connect in September. With...

Brian Freitas

EQD | The Hang Seng Index's Crucial Fork Is at the End of March

Many investors are wondering if the Hang Seng Index rally can continue into April: the last week of March will be crucial to determine the index's...

Nico Rosti

EQD | Hang Seng (HSI): How Far Can It Rally Now?

​Hang Seng Index rallying but may not have much room to go higher, target to cover LONG holdings at 17500 for next week, possible pullback ahead.

Nico Rosti

EQD | The Hang Seng Index's Turning Point

​The Hang Seng Index closed February with a +6.63% return, sparking speculation on whether it has hit a turning point after months of decline. Read...

Nico Rosti

EQD | HSI Rally: Possible Brief Stop This Week

​The Hang Seng Index is rallying but may pull back this week, offering possible trades to go SHORT (or go LONG after the pullback). Uncertainty...

Nico Rosti

Alibaba (9988 HK): Dual Primary Listing & Potential Southbound Flows

Alibaba expect to convert to a Primary Listing on the HKEX by end August. That could mean inclusion in Southbound Stock Connect in September. With...

Brian Freitas

Hang Seng Index rallying but may not have much room to go higher, target to cover LONG holdings at 17500 for next week, possible pullback ahead.

The Hang Seng Index closed February with a +6.63% return, sparking speculation on whether it has hit a turning point after months of decline. Read...

The Hang Seng Index is rallying but may pull back this week, offering possible trades to go SHORT (or go LONG after the pullback). Uncertainty...