Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Our index suggests long-haul rates remained stable in May as carriers approach peak season</li>
<li>Cleanup of West Coast slowdown, lower fuel prices should both serve as Summer tailwinds</li>
<li>We believe conditions could improve in H2 2023, and shares remain cheap on Price / Assets</li>
</ul>


Our index suggests long-haul rates remained stable in May as carriers approach peak season
Cleanup of West Coast slowdown, lower fuel prices should both serve as Summer tailwinds
We believe conditions could improve in H2 2023, and shares remain cheap on Price / Assets


Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Rates Stable | Strike Averted | Fuel Prices Lower  (June 2023)

<ul>
<li>Declines in carrier revenues and pricing continued to moderate in April</li>
<li>Inbound to N. America container volume declines also eased in April</li>
<li>Lower fuel prices a tailwind in '23, shares cheap, we retain our +ive sector view </li>
</ul>


Declines in carrier revenues and pricing continued to moderate in April
Inbound to N. America container volume declines also eased in April
Lower fuel prices a tailwind in '23, shares cheap, we retain our +ive sector view 


Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Price, Volume Declines Moderate | Fuel=Tailwind (May 2023)

<ul>
<li>Evergreen reported strong Q2 results, with revenue and margins both up sharply</li>
<li>Meanwhile, Hapag-Lloyd reported stagnant revenue and lower core profit margins</li>
<li>Divergent carrier performance reinforces our view that management skill matters</li>
</ul>


Evergreen reported strong Q2 results, with revenue and margins both up sharply
Meanwhile, Hapag-Lloyd reported stagnant revenue and lower core profit margins
Divergent carrier performance reinforces our view that management skill matters


More Q224 Container Carrier Results: Evergreen, Hapag-Lloyd Show Sharply Diverging Results

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Container ships are standardized, and fleets can be "market to market" values</li>
<li>This approach suggests TS Lines' equity could be worth &gt; US$2.0 bn</li>
<li>However, there are some caveats that come with this valuation approach</li>
</ul>


Container ships are standardized, and fleets can be "market to market" values
This approach suggests TS Lines' equity could be worth &gt; US$2.0 bn
However, there are some caveats that come with this valuation approach


TS Lines Pre-IPO: Adjusted Book Value Approach Yields Estimated Equity Valuation of US$1.96-2.06 Bn

AP Moeller - Maersk A/S / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Despite rising spot rates, Maersk Q224 revenue and EBITDA both fell Y/Y</li>
<li>After lifting pessimistic guidance in June, Maersk upped FY24 targets again</li>
<li>We believe Maersk probably moved to limit spot exposure a year ago</li>
</ul>


Despite rising spot rates, Maersk Q224 revenue and EBITDA both fell Y/Y
After lifting pessimistic guidance in June, Maersk upped FY24 targets again
We believe Maersk probably moved to limit spot exposure a year ago


Maersk Q224 Results | Strangely, Danish Container Giant Saw Limited Gains From Higher Spot Rates

South Korea

HMM Co., Ltd. provides marine transportation services.  The Company commands different types of vessels including full container vessels, oil tankers, car carriers, LNG carriers, bulk carriers, and tramps.

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HMM Co., Ltd. (011200 KS)

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Rates Stable | Strike Averted | Fuel Prices Lower (June 2023)

We are gaining conviction in our view that market conditions have bottomed for long-haul carriers, and that their shares appear depressed compared...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Price, Volume Declines Moderate | Fuel=Tailwind (May 2023)

April numbers show Y/Y declines in revenue and throughput are moderating. In addition, lower fuel prices could provide a tailwind in the remainder...

Tracking Traffic

More Q224 Container Carrier Results: Evergreen, Hapag-Lloyd Show Sharply Diverging Results

Evergreen Marine's Q2 results far outpaced the results of both Hapag-Lloyd and Maersk. The Taiwanese carrier's results over the past 2.5 years...

Tracking Traffic

TS Lines Pre-IPO: Adjusted Book Value Approach Yields Estimated Equity Valuation of US$1.96-2.06 Bn

Adjusting the book value of TS Lines' fleet based on recent newbuilding prices implies an equity valuation for the regional container carrier of as...

Tracking Traffic

Maersk Q224 Results | Strangely, Danish Container Giant Saw Limited Gains From Higher Spot Rates

If you've read about skyrocketing spot container rates in 2024, you may be surprised to learn that Danish container shipping giant reported Y/Y...

Tracking Traffic

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