Korea / Special Situations, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Situations

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>KOBC’s core mission hinges on HMM; without it, no real mandate. Structural incentive to hold remains, so its active tender participation is still questionable.</li>
<li>Still, max proration risk seems base case, with weak Q2, soft Q3 freight outlook, and post-tender skew pointing bearish for HMM.</li>
<li>Spread &gt;10% makes this too good to pass, but should also watch policy risk — better to lock futures hedge early as flows show players scrambling for cover.</li>
</ul>


KOBC’s core mission hinges on HMM; without it, no real mandate. Structural incentive to hold remains, so its active tender participation is still questionable.
Still, max proration risk seems base case, with weak Q2, soft Q3 freight outlook, and post-tender skew pointing bearish for HMM.
Spread &gt;10% makes this too good to pass, but should also watch policy risk — better to lock futures hedge early as flows show players scrambling for cover.


Today’s HMM Tender Follow-Up Disclosure and Hedge Ratio Setup

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Mirae Asset Securities

Mirae Asset Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Leading full-service brokerage firm in Vietnam. 

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Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>US tariffs take a toll For 2Q25, HMM posted revenue of W2.62tr (-1.5% YoY).</li><li>Container revenue fell 3.7% YoY to W2.17tr, as a drop in freight rates outweighed a 2.7% YoY increase in volume.</li><li>Meanwhile, bulk revenue jumped 13.9% YoY, mitigating the decline in overall revenue.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

US tariffs take a toll For 2Q25, HMM posted revenue of W2.62tr (-1.5% YoY).Container revenue fell 3.7% YoY to W2.17tr, as a drop in freight rates outweighed a 2.7% YoY increase in volume.Meanwhile, bulk revenue jumped 13.9% YoY, mitigating the decline in overall revenue.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HMM (011200 KS/Buy)Focus on Long-Term Indicators and Competitiveness

<ul>
<li>Watch next Monday’s premium and the share slice we can grab—these will drive hedge sizing with futures or other plays.</li>
<li>Premium sits in the late 10% range, above expectations; HMM’s float is tight, with 80%+ effectively locked by KDB, KOBC, NPS, and passive holders.</li>
<li>The tender pool is capped at ~15% of shares; with KDB taking 3–3.5%, about 4.5–5% remains available for the market.</li>
</ul>


Watch next Monday’s premium and the share slice we can grab—these will drive hedge sizing with futures or other plays.
Premium sits in the late 10% range, above expectations; HMM’s float is tight, with 80%+ effectively locked by KDB, KOBC, NPS, and passive holders.
The tender pool is capped at ~15% of shares; with KDB taking 3–3.5%, about 4.5–5% remains available for the market.


HMM KRW 2T Tender: Full Pro-Rata Risk Assessment

<ul>
<li>This buyback facilitates KDB’s exit, as rules prevent a block trade benefiting one shareholder. KDB plans to tender a 4–5% stake, or about 40% of the 2 trillion KRW buyback.</li>
<li>Given HMM's tight float, the premium is likely above the usual 10%, making it a strong opportunity for short-term arbitrage trading.</li>
<li>The key is timing the announcement. With the June deadline, we need to monitor hot money flows into HMM to build our position before the news breaks.</li>
</ul>


This buyback facilitates KDB’s exit, as rules prevent a block trade benefiting one shareholder. KDB plans to tender a 4–5% stake, or about 40% of the 2 trillion KRW buyback.
Given HMM's tight float, the premium is likely above the usual 10%, making it a strong opportunity for short-term arbitrage trading.
The key is timing the announcement. With the June deadline, we need to monitor hot money flows into HMM to build our position before the news breaks.


HMM’s 2T KRW Buyback Tender to Drop Before June End

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

<ul>
<li>On 22 January, HMM Co., Ltd. (011200 KS) announced its new Corporate Value Up plan which included five major items.</li>
<li>They include higher shareholder returns, achieve average sales growth of 9% and ROE of 4% in the next three years, and improve communication with stakeholders and shareholders.</li>
<li>The company plans to implement total shareholder returns of at least 2.5 trillion won within one year, which represents 14.8% of its market cap. </li>
</ul>


On 22 January, HMM Co., Ltd. (011200 KS) announced its new Corporate Value Up plan which included five major items.
They include higher shareholder returns, achieve average sales growth of 9% and ROE of 4% in the next three years, and improve communication with stakeholders and shareholders.
The company plans to implement total shareholder returns of at least 2.5 trillion won within one year, which represents 14.8% of its market cap. 


HMM: Material Improvement in Corporate Value Up Plan

South Korea

HMM Co., Ltd. provides marine transportation services.  The Company commands different types of vessels including full container vessels, oil tankers, car carriers, LNG carriers, bulk carriers, and tramps.

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HMM Co., Ltd. (011200 KS)

Today’s HMM Tender Follow-Up Disclosure and Hedge Ratio Setup

This post looks into today’s HMM tender follow-up disclosure and provides insights on structuring hedge ratio positioning.

Sanghyun Park

HMM (011200 KS/Buy)Focus on Long-Term Indicators and Competitiveness

US tariffs take a toll For 2Q25, HMM posted revenue of W2.62tr (-1.5% YoY). Container revenue fell 3.7% YoY to W2.17tr, as a drop in freight rates...

Mirae Asset Securities

HMM KRW 2T Tender: Full Pro-Rata Risk Assessment

This post details HMM’s KRW 2 trillion tender buyback, just disclosed, and provides a full assessment of the pro-rata risk.

Sanghyun Park

HMM’s 2T KRW Buyback Tender to Drop Before June End

This post covers HMM’s 2 trillion KRW buyback tender, scheduled to take place before the end of June, and outlines the key details and strategies...

Sanghyun Park

HMM: Material Improvement in Corporate Value Up Plan

HMM plans to implement total shareholder returns of at least 2.5 trillion won within one year, which represents 14.8% of its market cap.

Douglas Kim

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