Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

Hitachi Construction Machinery / Equity Bottom-Up

<h2>Revenue Guidance Overly Conservative</h2><p>HCM reported its 3QFY21 results on Friday (29th January) which saw both revenues and OP decrease YoY by 4.3% and 30.6% respectively with the deterioration in its profitability mainly due to the impact of lower sales volume in 3QFY21. However, the reported revenue was 1.6% higher than consensus while OP was -23.1% lower.</p><div><table class="table table-striped"><tbody>
<tr>
<td rowspan="2" style="width: 23.9%;"><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>In ¥m</strong></p></td>
<td colspan="3" style="width: 76.1%;"><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>3QFY21</strong></p></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 29.8%;"><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>Actual Results</strong></p></td>
<td style="width: 30.4%;"><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>Consensus</strong></p></td>
<td style="width: 15.9%;"><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>Surprise</strong></p></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 23.9%;"><p>Revenue</p></td>
<td style="width: 29.8%;"><p style="text-align: right;">                             197,825</p></td>
<td style="width: 30.4%;"><p style="text-align: right;">                              194,733</p></td>
<td style="width: 15.9%;"><p style="text-align: right;">1.6%</p></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 23.9%;"><p>Operating Profit</p></td>
<td style="width: 29.8%;"><p style="text-align: right;">                                  9,749</p></td>
<td style="width: 30.4%;"><p style="text-align: right;">                                 12,675</p></td>
<td style="width: 15.9%;"><p style="text-align: right;">-23.1%</p></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 23.9%;"><p>OPM</p></td>
<td style="width: 29.8%;"><p style="text-align: right;">4.9%</p></td>
<td style="width: 30.4%;"><p style="text-align: right;">6.5%</p></td>
<td style="width: 15.9%;"><p style="text-align: right;">-1.6% points</p></td>
</tr>
</tbody></table></div><div style="text-align: left;" class="content-caption"><em>Source: Company disclosures, CapIQ</em></div><p>The company has not changed its full year guidance for FY21 and expects revenue and OP of ¥211bn (-13.5% YoY) and ¥21bn (-1% YoY, implying an OPM of 10.4%) respectively in 4QFY21.</p><p>HCM's revenue expectation for 4QFY21 is 9.0% lower than consensus while OP is 6% higher than consensus implying an OPM of 10.3%.</p><table class="table table-striped"><tbody>
<tr>
<td style="width: 29.1%;"><p><strong>In ¥m</strong></p></td>
<td style="width: 34.96%;"><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>Expected 4QFY21</strong></p></td>
<td style="width: 35.94%;"><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>Guidance – FY21</strong></p></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 29.1%;"><p>Net sales</p></td>
<td style="width: 34.96%;"><p style="text-align: right;">                             211,273</p></td>
<td style="width: 35.94%;"><p style="text-align: right;">                              770,000</p></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 29.1%;"><p>Operating income</p></td>
<td style="width: 34.96%;"><p style="text-align: right;">                               21,702</p></td>
<td style="width: 35.94%;"><p style="text-align: right;">                                 40,000</p></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 29.1%;"><p>OPM</p></td>
<td style="width: 34.96%;"><p style="text-align: right;">10.3%</p></td>
<td style="width: 35.94%;"><p style="text-align: right;">5.2%</p></td>
</tr>
</tbody></table><div style="text-align: left;" class="content-caption"><em>Source: Company disclosures, CapIQ</em></div>

Revenue Guidance Overly ConservativeHCM reported its 3QFY21 results on Friday (29th January) which saw both revenues and OP decrease YoY by 4.3% and 30.6% respectively with the deterioration in its profitability mainly due to the impact of lower sales volume in 3QFY21. However, the reported revenue was 1.6% higher than consensus while OP was -23.1% lower.

In ¥m
3QFY21


Actual Results
Consensus
Surprise


Revenue
                             197,825
                              194,733
1.6%


Operating Profit
                                  9,749
                                 12,675
-23.1%


OPM
4.9%
6.5%
-1.6% points

Source: Company disclosures, CapIQThe company has not changed its full year guidance for FY21 and expects revenue and OP of ¥211bn (-13.5% YoY) and ¥21bn (-1% YoY, implying an OPM of 10.4%) respectively in 4QFY21.HCM's revenue expectation for 4QFY21 is 9.0% lower than consensus while OP is 6% higher than consensus implying an OPM of 10.3%.

In ¥m
Expected 4QFY21
Guidance – FY21


Net sales
                             211,273
                              770,000


Operating income
                               21,702
                                 40,000


OPM
10.3%
5.2%

Source: Company disclosures, CapIQ

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• 'WORST' &amp; BEST •</strong></p><p style="text-align: left;">All the large-caps that announced results or forecasts yesterday had positive scores, and none saw a quarter-on-quarter decline in Results &amp; Revisions Score. Therefore, the 'worst' side of our daily pair is a company where earnings momentum has already peaked out, and the upward revision to full-year earnings is below the trailing result - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/koei-tecmo-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20277:1" rel="noopener">Koei Tecmo (3635 JP)</a>. Conversely, the company with the largest undiscounted 'surprise' is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/macnica-fuji-electronics-hol" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26074:1" rel="noopener">Macnica Fuji Electronics (3132 JP)</a>. </p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/184/502/original/2021-01-26_06-07-10.png?1611608842" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="184502"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/184/504/original/2021-01-26_06-12-39.png?1611609171" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="184504"></figure></section><div class="content-caption"> Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics</div>

• 'WORST' &amp; BEST •All the large-caps that announced results or forecasts yesterday had positive scores, and none saw a quarter-on-quarter decline in Results &amp; Revisions Score. Therefore, the 'worst' side of our daily pair is a company where earnings momentum has already peaked out, and the upward revision to full-year earnings is below the trailing result - Koei Tecmo (3635 JP). Conversely, the company with the largest undiscounted 'surprise' is Macnica Fuji Electronics (3132 JP).  Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​01/​​​​​​​​​25 - Koei-Tecmo & Nidec

Managing Director

Elan Gore

TMI Data Science

TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade & traditional media.  Our proprietary software, TMI Machine, is a text-mining platform designed with the buy-side & capital markets professional in mind, text-mining the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income & individual equities.  TMI provides custom leading indicators and systematic trading strategies, operating at the nexus of linguistics & statistics drawing on vast experience in investment banking and hedge fund settings in senior quantitative and fundamental roles.  

TMI Data Science was founded by Elan Gore, an award-winning Senior Global Basic Materials Equity Analyst & China Economist with 15 years of experience in North American hedge funds & institutional managers; and Alessandro Porrino, Ph.D., an Algorithmic Trading Analyst and Programmer with 10 years of front-office experience ranging from complex FX option pricing to auto-hedging strategies at Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Standard Chartered.  Mr. Gore holds an MBA in Finance from New York University Stern School of Business, and Mr. Porrino holds a Ph.D. in Systems Engineering from Brunel University London.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>In the first week of 2021, TMI's machinery sentiment indicators hit their highest levels since pre-pandemic readings, attributed to recent bullish commentary from the likes of Sany Heavy, Hengli Hydraulic, Zoomlion and the CCMA (China Construction Machinery Association); the indicators have been strongly correlated with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/caterpillar-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:697:1" rel="noopener">Caterpillar Inc (CAT US)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/komatsu-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8416:1" rel="noopener">Komatsu Ltd (6301 JP)</a> &amp; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zoomlion-heavy-industry-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7817:1" rel="noopener">Zoomlion Heavy Industry H (1157 HK) </a> with a slight lead</li>
<li>On Friday, Komatsu reported Komtrax equipment utilization data for December, highlighting sharply stronger average hours of machinery use Y/Y comps in key jurisdictions</li>
<li>The CCMA recently pointed out that Chinese OEMs expect 2021 demand to range from high single-digits to 15% Y/Y while the association expects a range of 8-10% supported by continued robust infrastructure FAI</li>
<li>Komatsu's European data indicates potential positive surprise with a second month of +4% Y/Y growth, despite weaker EU Construction PMI readings throughout Q4</li>
<li>US data also highlights a first positive utilization comp in over a year, despite still-tentative construction spending data and slippage in the ABI index</li>
<li>Japanese machinery utilization also bounced back in December to its best Y/Y comp in more than a year, with elevated public sector construction in progress and a potential inflection in housing starts</li>
<li>Given such a robust starting point for 2021, markets are more likely to look through seasonal air pockets going into Spring</li>
</ul>


In the first week of 2021, TMI's machinery sentiment indicators hit their highest levels since pre-pandemic readings, attributed to recent bullish commentary from the likes of Sany Heavy, Hengli Hydraulic, Zoomlion and the CCMA (China Construction Machinery Association); the indicators have been strongly correlated with Caterpillar Inc (CAT US) , Komatsu Ltd (6301 JP) &amp; Zoomlion Heavy Industry H (1157 HK)  with a slight lead
On Friday, Komatsu reported Komtrax equipment utilization data for December, highlighting sharply stronger average hours of machinery use Y/Y comps in key jurisdictions
The CCMA recently pointed out that Chinese OEMs expect 2021 demand to range from high single-digits to 15% Y/Y while the association expects a range of 8-10% supported by continued robust infrastructure FAI
Komatsu's European data indicates potential positive surprise with a second month of +4% Y/Y growth, despite weaker EU Construction PMI readings throughout Q4
US data also highlights a first positive utilization comp in over a year, despite still-tentative construction spending data and slippage in the ABI index
Japanese machinery utilization also bounced back in December to its best Y/Y comp in more than a year, with elevated public sector construction in progress and a potential inflection in housing starts
Given such a robust starting point for 2021, markets are more likely to look through seasonal air pockets going into Spring


TMI Snapshot: Machinery Sentiment at Pre-COVID High as Komtrax Data Shows Synchronized Global Surge

Event-Driven

<p>When the surprise news that Hitachi was looking to sell down its stake in HCM broke, Hitachi Metals also fell 6.2% on the news. We said at the time that we believed Hitachi Metals was likely to be sold to an acquirer rather than just deconsolidated and the Nikkei has reported that both Bain and KKR are interested in the company. This is positive for the stock in our view, even more so than interest from a strategic acquirer as we believe it opens up various options.</p>

When the surprise news that Hitachi was looking to sell down its stake in HCM broke, Hitachi Metals also fell 6.2% on the news. We said at the time that we believed Hitachi Metals was likely to be sold to an acquirer rather than just deconsolidated and the Nikkei has reported that both Bain and KKR are interested in the company. This is positive for the stock in our view, even more so than interest from a strategic acquirer as we believe it opens up various options.

Hitachi Metals – Acquisition by a PE Fund Could Unlock Value

<p>Komatsu Corp (6301 JP) reported its 2QFY03/2021 results on Wednesday (28th October) which saw both revenues and operating profits declining YoY by 17% and 50% respectively. The reported revenue was 1% lower than consensus estimates while OP beat consensus estimates by a significant margin of 16%. The most interesting detail in its earnings though, was its notable outperformance vs. HCM in the key markets in China and the Americas.</p>

Komatsu Corp (6301 JP) reported its 2QFY03/2021 results on Wednesday (28th October) which saw both revenues and operating profits declining YoY by 17% and 50% respectively. The reported revenue was 1% lower than consensus estimates while OP beat consensus estimates by a significant margin of 16%. The most interesting detail in its earnings though, was its notable outperformance vs. HCM in the key markets in China and the Americas.

Komatsu – Better Momentum than HCM in Americas and China

Japan

Kurita Water Industries Ltd. manufactures, sells, and maintains water treatment equipment and systems.  The Company's products include water purification and waste water treatment equipment as well as soil remediation systems.  Kurita also manufactures and sells chemicals for water treatment related to sanitation, air-conditioning, and construction.

EBARA CORPORATION manufactures pneumatic and hydraulic pumps and related equipment.  The Company's products include fuel, oil, water, and firefighting pumps, as well as steam turbines and boilers.  Ebara Corporation also engineers garbage incinerators, smoke desulfurizers, and other products related to environmental technology.

IHI Corporation manufactures heavy machinery. The Company produces aircraft jet engines, rocket propulsion systems, and ships for military and commercial use. Ishikawajima-Harima also constructs petroleum refineries and nuclear power plants.

HOSHIZAKI ELECTRIC CORPORATION manufactures and sells commercial use kitchen equipment such as freezers, refrigerators, food/beverage dispensers.  The Company has sales subsidiaries across Japan as well as overseas.

Kawasaki Heavy Industries, Ltd. designs, develops, and manufactures transport equipment and industrial heavy machinery for military and commercial use.  The Company produces ships, railroad cars, aircraft engines and parts, hydraulic and gas turbines, submarine engines, boilers, and industrial robots.  Kawasaki Heavy Industries offers engineering and construction services to industrial plants.

DAIFUKU CO., LTD. designs, manufactures, and sells material handling equipment such as automated storage systems, conveyors, and automatic sorters.  The Company's products are used for automation in manufacturing and distribution businesses.

SUMITOMO HEAVY INDUSTRIES, LTD. manufactures and markets heavy electric machinery.  The Company's operations include heavy machinery, shipbuilding, mass-production machinery, environmental equipment, and construction machinery divisions.  Sumitomo Heavy Industries also produces equipment for semiconductor and laser technologies.

Minebea Mitsumi manufactures and markets miniature and instrument ball bearings.  The Company also makes DC motors, servo motors, stepping motors, spindle motors, pivot assemblies, rod-end and spherical bearings, fasteners, and computer keyboards. Minebea Mitsumi has production facilities in Thailand and Singapore.

DMG MORI CO., LTD. manufactures and markets machine tools and related products. The Company's product line includes numerical control (NC) and high-speed precision lathes, horizontal and vertical machining centers (MCs), and other stationary machine tools capable of performing various tasks.

NGK Insulators, Ltd. manufactures and sells electrical insulators, industrial ceramic products, environmental systems, and electronic parts. The Company's products include ceramic catalyst carrier for exhaust gas purification, automotive honeycombs for exhaust filtering, gas analyzers, high pressure compaction systems, and sewer cleaning equipment.

Samsung Heavy Industries Co., Ltd. manufactures crude oil tankers, container vessels, bulk carriers, cruisers, and passenger ferries.  The Company also produces steel and bridge structures, and material handling equipment.  In addition, Samsung Heavy Industries provides civil engineering, architectural, and plant construction services.

Seatrium Ltd offers engineering solutions for the offshore, marine, and energy industries. The Company provides rigs and floaters, repairs and upgrades, offshore platforms, and specialized shipbuilding. Seatrium serves customers worldwide.

Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (Holdings) Limited builds a wide range of ships. The Company produces a wide range of commercial vessels, mini bulk carriers, multi-purpose cargo vessels, containerships, chemical tankers, offshore supply vessels, rescue and salvage vessels, and lifting vessels.

AGCO Corporation manufactures and distributes agricultural equipment throughout the world.  The Company sells a range of agricultural equipment and related replacement parts, including tractors, combines, hay tools, sprayers, and forage equipment.  AGCO markets its products under a variety of brand names, including Massey Ferguson, AGCO, Tye, GLEANER, and Hesston.

Thermax Ltd manufactures equipment and machinery used to both produce and to conserve energy. The Company operates through a number of divisions, including Boilers, Heat Recovery Steam Generators, Water Treatment Plants and Air Pollution Control Equipment. In addition, Thermax  produces steam and gas turbines and diesel gensets through a number of strategic alliances.

Watts Water Technologies, Inc. designs, manufactures, and sells a line of products to the water regulation and control markets.  The Company has manufacturing plants and distribution channels in the United States, Canada, and Europe, as well as a joint venture in The People's Republic of China.

Chart Industries, Inc. is a global manufacturer of equipment used in the production, storage, and end-use of hydrocarbon and industrial gases. The Company's products include vacuum-insulated containment vessels, heat exchangers, cold boxes, and other cryogenic components.

Zoomlion Heavy Industry Science and Technology Co., Ltd.manufactures and markets construction machinery.  The Company's products include concrete machinery, cranes, road machinery, drilling equipment, and other heavy construction equipment.  Zoomlion also produces environmental machinery and satellite navigation products.

Suzhou Dongshan Precision Manufacturing Co., Ltd. develops, manufactures and sells precision metal plate and cast metal.  The Company's products include communication equipment precision metal part, and machine bed precision metal part.

Hanwha Ocean Co., Ltd. operates as a shipbuilding and offshore company. The Company provides floating structure construction, steel wire drying, commercial vessels, specialty vessels, gas carrier, tanker, containership, ro ro, bulk carrier, submarine, warship, auxiliaries, cruise ships, and ferries manufacturing services. Hanwha Ocean also offers onshore plants services.

Hitachi Construction Machinery Co., Ltd. develops, manufactures, sells, and repairs construction machinery. The Company's products include hydraulic excavators, crawler cranes, wheel loaders, shield machines, and bulldozers. Hitachi Construction Machinery, a subsidiary of Hitachi, Ltd., markets its products worldwide through sales offices overseas.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
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Hitachi Construction Machinery (6305 JP)

HCM - Favour HCM over Komatsu for Now

HCM's guidance looks conservative on the revenue line though margins have been disappointing. However, there are signs of underlying improvement...

Mio Kato

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 01/25 - Koei-Tecmo & Nidec

All the large-caps that announced results or forecasts yesterday had positive scores, and none saw a quarter-on-quarter decline in Results &...

Campbell Gunn

TMI Snapshot: Machinery Sentiment at Pre-COVID High as Komtrax Data Shows Synchronized Global Surge

TMI's Machinery Sentiment Indicators are now back to pre-pandemic levels, while Komatsu's Friday release of Komtrax machinery utilization hours...

Elan Gore

Hitachi Metals – Acquisition by a PE Fund Could Unlock Value

We believe the rumoured sales of Hitachi Metals to a PE fund such as Bain or KKR could unlock value within the company. The question is how large...

Mio Kato

Komatsu – Better Momentum than HCM in Americas and China

Komatsu results suggest the company could outperform peer HCM in the short-term due to better momentum in the US and China.

Mio Kato

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

HCM - Favour HCM over Komatsu for Now

HCM's guidance looks conservative on the revenue line though margins have been disappointing. However, there are signs of underlying improvement...

Mio Kato

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​01/​​​​​​​​​25 - Koei-Tecmo & Nidec

All the large-caps that announced results or forecasts yesterday had positive scores, and none saw a quarter-on-quarter decline in Results &...

Campbell Gunn

TMI Snapshot: Machinery Sentiment at Pre-COVID High as Komtrax Data Shows Synchronized Global Surge

TMI's Machinery Sentiment Indicators are now back to pre-pandemic levels, while Komatsu's Friday release of Komtrax machinery utilization hours...

Elan Gore

Hitachi Metals – Acquisition by a PE Fund Could Unlock Value

We believe the rumoured sales of Hitachi Metals to a PE fund such as Bain or KKR could unlock value within the company. The question is how large...

Mio Kato

Komatsu – Better Momentum than HCM in Americas and China

Komatsu results suggest the company could outperform peer HCM in the short-term due to better momentum in the US and China.

Mio Kato

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 01/25 - Koei-Tecmo & Nidec