Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

HK Type 4 license through Ballingal Investment Advisors Ltd. ("BIA" or "BIAL")

BACKGROUND
I have 20+yrs experience in Asia doing alternative strategies (i.e. non-delta1 non long-only) in fixed income, equity derivatives, and activist/catalyst/event-driven and long-short equity strategies with most of that time spent managing money. 

4 years in fixed income macro, 8 years running internal hedge fund and 4yrs investment banking at Citi in Japan, 3 years running an Asia multi-strat portfolio at a hedge fund, 4+yrs as an independent special situations analyst.

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Hitachi Metals - Should I Stay or Should I Go Now?

Hitachi Metals (5486) - Where IS Undisturbed?

Hitachi Metals – Limited Upside Despite Bain Capital News But Let’s Find the Offshoot Ideas

Hitachi Metals – Is Net Debt Improvement Really a Positive?

Hitachi Metals – If You Still Own This It May Be Worth Selling Prior to an Acquisition Announcement

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hitachi-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7797:1" rel="noopener">Hitachi Ltd (6501 JP)</a> has, for over a decade, been restructuring itself by selling subsidiaries here and buying them in there. There are two remaining after the somewhat recent sale of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hitachi-chemical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14457:1" rel="noopener">Hitachi Chemical (4217 JP)</a>, de-consolidation of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hitachi-capital-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14410:1" rel="noopener">Hitachi Capital (8586 JP)</a>, and buy-in of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hitachi-high-tech-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7046:1" rel="noopener">Hitachi High-Tech (8036 JP)</a> (after a flurry of other deals to sell out stakes in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hitachi-kokusai-electric-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2523:1" rel="noopener">Hitachi Kokusai Electric (6756 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hitachi-koki-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18359:1" rel="noopener">Hitachi Koki (6581 JP)</a>, Hitachi Maxell and Clarion in the previous few years).
In October last year, I addressed the issue of the selldown of the last two <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hitachi-metals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8561:1" rel="noopener">Hitachi Metals (5486 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hitachi-construction-machinery" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19433:1" rel="noopener">Hitachi Construction Machinery (6305 JP)</a> in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/the-right-trade-may-be-hitachi" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:44551" rel="noopener">The Right Trade May Be Hitachi</a>, which argued that Hitachi itself was probably the better deal than the subs. Since then, Hitachi is up 39.3%, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hitachi-construction-machinery" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19433:1" rel="noopener">Hitachi Construction Machinery (6305 JP)</a> is up 3.6%, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hitachi-metals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8561:1" rel="noopener">Hitachi Metals (5486 JP)</a> is up 23%. 
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/mio-kato" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:713" rel="noopener">Mio Kato</a> has written a few times about Hitachi Metals and about how one might not be able to expect a very high takeout price through the sale process that Hitachi was running. I wholly agreed with Mio, because I think it is not an easy asset to sell later, but I couldn't come up with a reason to sell the stock because I expect funding is available, costs can be cut, Hitachi might keep 20% and sell a call option to help with funding, and if a company needs a lot of work to restructure, I am sure that Bain Consulting could be prevailed upon to provide their consulting services for a price (one of the dirty little secrets of private equity is that GPs get management and incentive fees on assets and sales, but profits in the interim come with costs, and some of those costs can be allocated to the GP as well).
Hitachi took in bids earlier this spring after running an auction process and three weeks ago an <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/659a5857-9369-4f9b-8595-06bb89888772" target="_blank" rel="noopener">article</a> in the FT hit the tape saying "Bain nears $8bn deal to buy Hitachi Metals." That was around current market price give or take net debt so people were thinking there might not be a premium.
<div class="content-highlight">
Today, we got a deal announcement. Indeed, Bain is paying near US$8bn, but it is structured in such a way that Bain pays ¥1675/share to Hitachi and ¥2181/share to minorities, which produces a combined price just over ¥1900/share.
This approximates a decent result for everyone involved.  
</div>
More below the fold.

Hitachi Ltd (6501 JP) has, for over a decade, been restructuring itself by selling subsidiaries here and buying them in there. There are two remaining after the somewhat recent sale of Hitachi Chemical (4217 JP), de-consolidation of Hitachi Capital (8586 JP), and buy-in of Hitachi High-Tech (8036 JP) (after a flurry of other deals to sell out stakes in Hitachi Kokusai Electric (6756 JP), Hitachi Koki (6581 JP), Hitachi Maxell and Clarion in the previous few years).
In October last year, I addressed the issue of the selldown of the last two Hitachi Metals (5486 JP) and Hitachi Construction Machinery (6305 JP) in The Right Trade May Be Hitachi, which argued that Hitachi itself was probably the better deal than the subs. Since then, Hitachi is up 39.3%, Hitachi Construction Machinery (6305 JP) is up 3.6%, and Hitachi Metals (5486 JP) is up 23%. 
Mio Kato has written a few times about Hitachi Metals and about how one might not be able to expect a very high takeout price through the sale process that Hitachi was running. I wholly agreed with Mio, because I think it is not an easy asset to sell later, but I couldn't come up with a reason to sell the stock because I expect funding is available, costs can be cut, Hitachi might keep 20% and sell a call option to help with funding, and if a company needs a lot of work to restructure, I am sure that Bain Consulting could be prevailed upon to provide their consulting services for a price (one of the dirty little secrets of private equity is that GPs get management and incentive fees on assets and sales, but profits in the interim come with costs, and some of those costs can be allocated to the GP as well).
Hitachi took in bids earlier this spring after running an auction process and three weeks ago an article in the FT hit the tape saying "Bain nears $8bn deal to buy Hitachi Metals." That was around current market price give or take net debt so people were thinking there might not be a premium.

Today, we got a deal announcement. Indeed, Bain is paying near US$8bn, but it is structured in such a way that Bain pays ¥1675/share to Hitachi and ¥2181/share to minorities, which produces a combined price just over ¥1900/share.
This approximates a decent result for everyone involved.  

More below the fold. 

Bain Bids Up BIG For Hitachi Metals (5486) - Now We Wait