Managing Director

Elan Gore

TMI Data Science

TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade & traditional media.  Our proprietary software, TMI Machine, is a text-mining platform designed with the buy-side & capital markets professional in mind, text-mining the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income & individual equities.  TMI provides custom leading indicators and systematic trading strategies, operating at the nexus of linguistics & statistics drawing on vast experience in investment banking and hedge fund settings in senior quantitative and fundamental roles.  

TMI Data Science was founded by Elan Gore, an award-winning Senior Global Basic Materials Equity Analyst & China Economist with 15 years of experience in North American hedge funds & institutional managers; and Alessandro Porrino, Ph.D., an Algorithmic Trading Analyst and Programmer with 10 years of front-office experience ranging from complex FX option pricing to auto-hedging strategies at Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Standard Chartered.  Mr. Gore holds an MBA in Finance from New York University Stern School of Business, and Mr. Porrino holds a Ph.D. in Systems Engineering from Brunel University London.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>In the first week of 2021, TMI's machinery sentiment indicators hit their highest levels since pre-pandemic readings, attributed to recent bullish commentary from the likes of Sany Heavy, Hengli Hydraulic, Zoomlion and the CCMA (China Construction Machinery Association); the indicators have been strongly correlated with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/caterpillar-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:697:1" rel="noopener">Caterpillar Inc (CAT US)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/komatsu-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8416:1" rel="noopener">Komatsu Ltd (6301 JP)</a> &amp; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zoomlion-heavy-industry-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7817:1" rel="noopener">Zoomlion Heavy Industry H (1157 HK) </a> with a slight lead</li>
<li>On Friday, Komatsu reported Komtrax equipment utilization data for December, highlighting sharply stronger average hours of machinery use Y/Y comps in key jurisdictions</li>
<li>The CCMA recently pointed out that Chinese OEMs expect 2021 demand to range from high single-digits to 15% Y/Y while the association expects a range of 8-10% supported by continued robust infrastructure FAI</li>
<li>Komatsu's European data indicates potential positive surprise with a second month of +4% Y/Y growth, despite weaker EU Construction PMI readings throughout Q4</li>
<li>US data also highlights a first positive utilization comp in over a year, despite still-tentative construction spending data and slippage in the ABI index</li>
<li>Japanese machinery utilization also bounced back in December to its best Y/Y comp in more than a year, with elevated public sector construction in progress and a potential inflection in housing starts</li>
<li>Given such a robust starting point for 2021, markets are more likely to look through seasonal air pockets going into Spring</li>
</ul>


In the first week of 2021, TMI's machinery sentiment indicators hit their highest levels since pre-pandemic readings, attributed to recent bullish commentary from the likes of Sany Heavy, Hengli Hydraulic, Zoomlion and the CCMA (China Construction Machinery Association); the indicators have been strongly correlated with Caterpillar Inc (CAT US) , Komatsu Ltd (6301 JP) &amp; Zoomlion Heavy Industry H (1157 HK)  with a slight lead
On Friday, Komatsu reported Komtrax equipment utilization data for December, highlighting sharply stronger average hours of machinery use Y/Y comps in key jurisdictions
The CCMA recently pointed out that Chinese OEMs expect 2021 demand to range from high single-digits to 15% Y/Y while the association expects a range of 8-10% supported by continued robust infrastructure FAI
Komatsu's European data indicates potential positive surprise with a second month of +4% Y/Y growth, despite weaker EU Construction PMI readings throughout Q4
US data also highlights a first positive utilization comp in over a year, despite still-tentative construction spending data and slippage in the ABI index
Japanese machinery utilization also bounced back in December to its best Y/Y comp in more than a year, with elevated public sector construction in progress and a potential inflection in housing starts
Given such a robust starting point for 2021, markets are more likely to look through seasonal air pockets going into Spring


TMI Snapshot: Machinery Sentiment at Pre-COVID High as Komtrax Data Shows Synchronized Global Surge

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Event-Driven

When the surprise news that Hitachi was looking to sell down its stake in HCM broke, Hitachi Metals also fell 6.2% on the news. We said at the time that we believed Hitachi Metals was likely to be sold to an acquirer rather than just deconsolidated and the Nikkei has reported that both Bain and KKR are interested in the company. This is positive for the stock in our view, even more so than interest from a strategic acquirer as we believe it opens up various options.

When the surprise news that Hitachi was looking to sell down its stake in HCM broke, Hitachi Metals also fell 6.2% on the news. We said at the time that we believed Hitachi Metals was likely to be sold to an acquirer rather than just deconsolidated and the Nikkei has reported that both Bain and KKR are interested in the company. This is positive for the stock in our view, even more so than interest from a strategic acquirer as we believe it opens up various options.

Hitachi Metals – Acquisition by a PE Fund Could Unlock Value

Equity Bottom-Up

Komatsu Corp (6301 JP) reported its 2QFY03/2021 results on Wednesday (28th October) which saw both revenues and operating profits declining YoY by 17% and 50% respectively. The reported revenue was 1% lower than consensus estimates while OP beat consensus estimates by a significant margin of 16%. The most interesting detail in its earnings though, was its notable outperformance vs. HCM in the key markets in China and the Americas.

Komatsu Corp (6301 JP) reported its 2QFY03/2021 results on Wednesday (28th October) which saw both revenues and operating profits declining YoY by 17% and 50% respectively. The reported revenue was 1% lower than consensus estimates while OP beat consensus estimates by a significant margin of 16%. The most interesting detail in its earnings though, was its notable outperformance vs. HCM in the key markets in China and the Americas.

Komatsu – Better Momentum than HCM in Americas and China

Hitachi Construction Machinery / Event-Driven

HCM reported 2Q results today with revenue of ¥191bn undershooting consensus by 2.2% but higher than expected margins resulting in OP of ¥8.00bn significantly overshooting consensus’ ¥5.50bn. The company’s setsumeikai involved some interesting discussion regarding the Nikkei report that parent Hitachi would halve its stake in the company. We discuss the details below.

HCM reported 2Q results today with revenue of ¥191bn undershooting consensus by 2.2% but higher than expected margins resulting in OP of ¥8.00bn significantly overshooting consensus’ ¥5.50bn. The company’s setsumeikai involved some interesting discussion regarding the Nikkei report that parent Hitachi would halve its stake in the company. We discuss the details below.

HCM – Profit Beat and Discussion of Hitachi Stake

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hitachi-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7797:1" rel="noopener">Hitachi Ltd (6501 JP)</a> has, for over a decade, been restructuring itself - selling subsidiaries here and buying them in there. There are two remaining after the recent sale of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hitachi-chemical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14457:1" rel="noopener">Hitachi Chemical (4217 JP)</a>, de-consolidation of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hitachi-capital-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14410:1" rel="noopener">Hitachi Capital (8586 JP)</a>, and buy-in of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hitachi-high-tech-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7046:1" rel="noopener">Hitachi High-Tech (8036 JP)</a>. The earnings call in May occasioned another presentation - that of the update on <a href="http://www.hitachi.com/New/cnews/month/2020/05/200529a.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Progress of the Mid-Term Management Plan</a> (with a webcast and a <a href="http://www.hitachi.com/New/cnews/month/2020/05/200529a/f_200529apre.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">presentation deck</a>), where the CEO responded to a question thusly:<div><blockquote>
QUESTION:  Next question is regarding the, against the backdrop of COVID-19, is this going to have an impact on the reorganisation of the listed subsidiaries?
ANSWER BY CEO HIGASHIHARA:  Regarding the listed subsidiary answer. Hitachi Construction Machinery and Hitachi Metals remain. And what we are telling the top management is that, in the time frame of fiscal year 2021 to 2024, we have to make sure these companies are able to compete globally. They are now evaluating this. It is not just a matter of COVID-19. Mid- to long-term growth strategy will be emphasised so the reorganisation strategy for the listed subsidiaries will not be impacted by COVID-19.
</blockquote></div><div>
FY 2021 to FY 2024 is a three year window starting next April, with FY2021 ending in March 2022 and FY2024 ending in March 2025.
<div>
That was May 29, less than five months ago and the situation was discussed in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/hitachi-s-capital-case-liquidating-land-policy-holdings-what-about-the-subs" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:39920" rel="noopener">Hitachi's Capital Case - Liquidating Land &amp; Policy Holdings? What About the Subs?</a>.
Friday saw an article out of the Nikkei suggesting Hitachi might sell half its stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hitachi-construction-machinery" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19433:1" rel="noopener">Hitachi Construction Machinery (6305 JP)</a> ("HCM") to a third party, at a discount, and that it might start a sale process on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hitachi-metals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8561:1" rel="noopener">Hitachi Metals (5486 JP)</a> "this month."
</div>
<div>
It strikes me as unlikely Hitachi would themselves be throwing in the towel 5 months later before the start of the time frame in which top management of the two subsidiaries are supposed to be able to compete globally. All of this is likely getting done with the will and direction of the subsidiaries themselves. This strikes me as some kind of agreement with management of HCM that they would not be averse to receiving expert help from outside while remaining listed. 
This changes things.
Hitachi becomes a different animal. It becomes a non-stub trade (parent vs significant value of listed short-able subs) for the first time in a very long time. And the optics change quite a bit.
</div>
</div>

Hitachi Ltd (6501 JP) has, for over a decade, been restructuring itself - selling subsidiaries here and buying them in there. There are two remaining after the recent sale of Hitachi Chemical (4217 JP), de-consolidation of Hitachi Capital (8586 JP), and buy-in of Hitachi High-Tech (8036 JP). The earnings call in May occasioned another presentation - that of the update on Progress of the Mid-Term Management Plan (with a webcast and a presentation deck), where the CEO responded to a question thusly:
QUESTION:  Next question is regarding the, against the backdrop of COVID-19, is this going to have an impact on the reorganisation of the listed subsidiaries?
ANSWER BY CEO HIGASHIHARA:  Regarding the listed subsidiary answer. Hitachi Construction Machinery and Hitachi Metals remain. And what we are telling the top management is that, in the time frame of fiscal year 2021 to 2024, we have to make sure these companies are able to compete globally. They are now evaluating this. It is not just a matter of COVID-19. Mid- to long-term growth strategy will be emphasised so the reorganisation strategy for the listed subsidiaries will not be impacted by COVID-19.

FY 2021 to FY 2024 is a three year window starting next April, with FY2021 ending in March 2022 and FY2024 ending in March 2025.

That was May 29, less than five months ago and the situation was discussed in Hitachi's Capital Case - Liquidating Land &amp; Policy Holdings? What About the Subs?.
Friday saw an article out of the Nikkei suggesting Hitachi might sell half its stake in Hitachi Construction Machinery (6305 JP) ("HCM") to a third party, at a discount, and that it might start a sale process on Hitachi Metals (5486 JP) "this month."


It strikes me as unlikely Hitachi would themselves be throwing in the towel 5 months later before the start of the time frame in which top management of the two subsidiaries are supposed to be able to compete globally. All of this is likely getting done with the will and direction of the subsidiaries themselves. This strikes me as some kind of agreement with management of HCM that they would not be averse to receiving expert help from outside while remaining listed. 
This changes things.
Hitachi becomes a different animal. It becomes a non-stub trade (parent vs significant value of listed short-able subs) for the first time in a very long time. And the optics change quite a bit.



Japan

Hitachi Construction Machinery Co., Ltd. develops, manufactures, sells, and repairs construction machinery. The Company's products include hydraulic excavators, crawler cranes, wheel loaders, shield machines, and bulldozers. Hitachi Construction Machinery, a subsidiary of Hitachi, Ltd., markets its products worldwide through sales offices overseas.

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Hitachi Construction Machinery (6305 JP)

TMI Snapshot: Machinery Sentiment at Pre-COVID High as Komtrax Data Shows Synchronized Global Surge

TMI's Machinery Sentiment Indicators are now back to pre-pandemic levels, while Komatsu's Friday release of Komtrax machinery utilization hours...

Elan Gore

Hitachi Metals – Acquisition by a PE Fund Could Unlock Value

We believe the rumoured sales of Hitachi Metals to a PE fund such as Bain or KKR could unlock value within the company. The question is how large...

Mio Kato

Komatsu – Better Momentum than HCM in Americas and China

Komatsu results suggest the company could outperform peer HCM in the short-term due to better momentum in the US and China.

Mio Kato

HCM – Profit Beat and Discussion of Hitachi Stake

Hitachi Construction Machinery earnings surprised to the upside at the OP level though analyst questions focused on the potential stake sale by...

Mio Kato

The Right Trade May Be Hitachi

Hitachi is getting to the end of its Core vs Non-Core restructuring campaign. Two remaining subs have newsflow, and earnings announcements shortly....

Travis Lundy

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