Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Vertically integrated Inner Mongolia smelter with second-quartile cost positioning, expanding renewables and alumina self-sufficiency, and entering overseas low-carbon production via its Saudi project.</li>
<li>FY24 margins inflected sharply; mid-cycle valuation implies material upside with strong sensitivity to aluminium pricing and structural demand drivers including AI datacentres, EVs, and grid expansion.</li>
<li>Base-Case Target Price HK$18.6 (24% upside); bull-case HK$22.1; bear-case HK$16.9, supported by integrated operations and medium-term EBITDA expansion potential.</li>
</ul>


Vertically integrated Inner Mongolia smelter with second-quartile cost positioning, expanding renewables and alumina self-sufficiency, and entering overseas low-carbon production via its Saudi project.
FY24 margins inflected sharply; mid-cycle valuation implies material upside with strong sensitivity to aluminium pricing and structural demand drivers including AI datacentres, EVs, and grid expansion.
Base-Case Target Price HK$18.6 (24% upside); bull-case HK$22.1; bear-case HK$16.9, supported by integrated operations and medium-term EBITDA expansion potential.


Chuangxin Industries: Buy – Attractive Cost Positioning and Medium-Term Growth Visibility

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Hindalco’s Indian operations stood robust, offsetting Novelis's muted profitability.</li><li>Consolidated Revenue stood at Rs 66,058 Cr (up 13%/3% YoY/QoQ), largely in line with our estimate.</li><li>EBITDA stood at Rs 8,976 Cr (up 12%/11% YoY/QoQ), in line with our estimate (8% beat vs consensus), led by strong aluminium performance.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Hindalco’s Indian operations stood robust, offsetting Novelis's muted profitability.Consolidated Revenue stood at Rs 66,058 Cr (up 13%/3% YoY/QoQ), largely in line with our estimate.EBITDA stood at Rs 8,976 Cr (up 12%/11% YoY/QoQ), in line with our estimate (8% beat vs consensus), led by strong aluminium performance.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Top Conviction Ideas - “Metals & Mining”

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of NIFTY in the past month.</li>
<li>We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.</li>
<li>We highlighted EPS revision on Adani Enterprises, JSW Steel, ICICI Bank, Infosys, Tata Motors, HDFC Bank, Coal India, Eternal, Hdfc Bank, Icici Bank, Infosys, Tata Motors, Coal India, Jsw Steel.</li>
</ul>


We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of NIFTY in the past month.
We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.
We highlighted EPS revision on Adani Enterprises, JSW Steel, ICICI Bank, Infosys, Tata Motors, HDFC Bank, Coal India, Eternal, Hdfc Bank, Icici Bank, Infosys, Tata Motors, Coal India, Jsw Steel.


NIFTY Index Earning Revision (Oct): Adani Enterprises, JSW Steel, ICICI Bank, Infosys, Tata Motors

Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

<ul>
<li>The aluminum market is experiencing tight supply, rising premiums, and increasing demand driven by infrastructure and clean energy projects. LME prices have surged 7-8%, indicating a structural shift.</li>
<li>
Higher aluminum prices and regional premiums are positively impacting earnings. Key producers like Hindalco are benefiting from strong operations, cost efficiencies, and favorable market conditions.</li>
<li>Sustained supply constraints and rising premiums, especially from China’s cuts, are expected to drive LME prices higher, ensuring robust growth for Hindalco in the medium term.</li>
</ul>


The aluminum market is experiencing tight supply, rising premiums, and increasing demand driven by infrastructure and clean energy projects. LME prices have surged 7-8%, indicating a structural shift.

Higher aluminum prices and regional premiums are positively impacting earnings. Key producers like Hindalco are benefiting from strong operations, cost efficiencies, and favorable market conditions.
Sustained supply constraints and rising premiums, especially from China’s cuts, are expected to drive LME prices higher, ensuring robust growth for Hindalco in the medium term.


Thematic Report: Aluminum's Growth Story- Investing in the Future of Essential Metals

<ul><li>In Q2FY26, we foresee an increase in absolute EBITDA across both Steel and Aluminium players.</li><li>For the Steel companies under our coverage (Tata Steel and SAIL), we expect EBITDA to improve QoQ, mainly led by higher sales volume aided by lower/flat coking coal consumption costs, partly offset by lower sales realisation due to a drop in HRC prices in the quarter.</li><li>Average domestic HRC prices in Q2FY26 decreased by 2.4%/4% YoY/QoQ due to the extended monsoon; the prices declined despite Chinese HRC prices moving up 3% QoQ.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

In Q2FY26, we foresee an increase in absolute EBITDA across both Steel and Aluminium players.For the Steel companies under our coverage (Tata Steel and SAIL), we expect EBITDA to improve QoQ, mainly led by higher sales volume aided by lower/flat coking coal consumption costs, partly offset by lower sales realisation due to a drop in HRC prices in the quarter.Average domestic HRC prices in Q2FY26 decreased by 2.4%/4% YoY/QoQ due to the extended monsoon; the prices declined despite Chinese HRC prices moving up 3% QoQ.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Q2FY26 Earnings Preview - Metals & Mining

India

Hindalco Industries Limited is an integrated aluminum manufacturer. The Company mines bauxite and refines it into alumina. The Company's other operations include the smelting of alumina into aluminum, the manufacture of semi-fabricated rolled and extruded products. The Company's products include aluminum ingots, steel rods and rolled flat steel products.

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Hindalco Industries (HNDL IN)

Chuangxin Industries: Buy – Attractive Cost Positioning and Medium-Term Growth Visibility

Inner Mongolia smelter poised for growth with renewables expansion and overseas projects, FY24 margins strong with potential upside in aluminium...

Rahul Jain

Top Conviction Ideas - “Metals & Mining”

Hindalco’s Indian operations stood robust, offsetting Novelis's muted profitability. Consolidated Revenue stood at Rs 66,058 Cr (up 13%/3% YoY...

Axis Direct

NIFTY Index Earning Revision (Oct): Adani Enterprises, JSW Steel, ICICI Bank, Infosys, Tata Motors

We analyzed NIFTY's consensus for Oct 2025 and highlighted changes of EPS in Adani Enterprises (ADE/S IN), JSW Steel (JSTL IN), ICICI Bank (ICICIBC...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Thematic Report: Aluminum's Growth Story- Investing in the Future of Essential Metals

Aluminum market sees tight supply, rising premiums, and increasing demand, driving up prices and benefiting key producers like Hindalco.

Nimish Maheshwari

Q2FY26 Earnings Preview - Metals & Mining

We expect Tata Steel and SAIL’s EBITDA to increase on a QoQ basis by 14% and 20%, respectively. Both the Indian and European operations of Tata...

Axis Direct

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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Chuangxin Industries: Buy – Attractive Cost Positioning and Medium-Term Growth Visibility

​Inner Mongolia smelter poised for growth with renewables expansion and overseas projects, FY24 margins strong with potential upside in aluminium...

Rahul Jain

Top Conviction Ideas - “Metals & Mining”

Hindalco’s Indian operations stood robust, offsetting Novelis's muted profitability. Consolidated Revenue stood at Rs 66,058 Cr (up 13%/3% YoY...

Axis Direct

NIFTY Index Earning Revision (Oct): Adani Enterprises, JSW Steel, ICICI Bank, Infosys, Tata Motors

We analyzed NIFTY's consensus for Oct 2025 and highlighted changes of EPS in Adani Enterprises (ADE/S IN), JSW Steel (JSTL IN), ICICI Bank (ICICIBC...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Thematic Report: Aluminum's Growth Story- Investing in the Future of Essential Metals

​Aluminum market sees tight supply, rising premiums, and increasing demand, driving up prices and benefiting key producers like Hindalco.

Nimish Maheshwari

Q2FY26 Earnings Preview - Metals & Mining

We expect Tata Steel and SAIL’s EBITDA to increase on a QoQ basis by 14% and 20%, respectively. Both the Indian and European operations of Tata...

Axis Direct

Inner Mongolia smelter poised for growth with renewables expansion and overseas projects, FY24 margins strong with potential upside in aluminium...

Aluminum market sees tight supply, rising premiums, and increasing demand, driving up prices and benefiting key producers like Hindalco.