External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>The Consolidated Segmental EBITDA, witnessing a 27% decrease YoY and a 2% increase QoQ, beat our projection by 8%.</li><li>This outperformance was propelled by Indian Aluminium and Copper operations, which demonstrated better-than-anticipated EBITDA due to increased metal sales.</li><li>Although we had accounted for reduced Aluminium shipments and copper sales due to a copper smelter maintenance shutdown, the actual figures beat our estimates by 4% and 19%, respectively, reaching 341kt and 118kt. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The Consolidated Segmental EBITDA, witnessing a 27% decrease YoY and a 2% increase QoQ, beat our projection by 8%.This outperformance was propelled by Indian Aluminium and Copper operations, which demonstrated better-than-anticipated EBITDA due to increased metal sales.Although we had accounted for reduced Aluminium shipments and copper sales due to a copper smelter maintenance shutdown, the actual figures beat our estimates by 4% and 19%, respectively, reaching 341kt and 118kt. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Hindalco Industries Ltd - Headwinds Bottoming Out; Maintain BUY

<ul><li>Novelis’s Revenue/EBITDA/PAT stood largely in line despite a surprise 9%/6% YoY/QoQ drop in shipments (4% miss) to 879kt due to lower can and speciality shipments.</li><li>Despite lower shipments, revenue (down 20%/7% YoY/QoQ) missed our estimate by only 2%, led by an improved product mix (higher auto shipments).</li><li>LME Aluminium prices were down 22%/5% YoY/QoQ in Q1FY24. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Novelis’s Revenue/EBITDA/PAT stood largely in line despite a surprise 9%/6% YoY/QoQ drop in shipments (4% miss) to 879kt due to lower can and speciality shipments.Despite lower shipments, revenue (down 20%/7% YoY/QoQ) missed our estimate by only 2%, led by an improved product mix (higher auto shipments).LME Aluminium prices were down 22%/5% YoY/QoQ in Q1FY24. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Hindalco Industries Ltd - Margin Recovery at Novelis

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Q1FY25 earnings season was marked by a) Robust PMI manufacturing and Services, b) Stronger E-way bill and GST collection, d) Heat waves and electricity demand, and e) Election campaigns and rallies. Domestic-facing sectors largely enjoyed the economic recovery backed by these factors and hence, margins may surprise positively.</li><li>On the other hand, export-oriented themes are likely to showcase relatively weaker performance.</li><li>Most of the domestic high-frequency indicators have trended higher during the quarter which is likely to translate into good demand momentum for the domestic corporate segment. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Q1FY25 earnings season was marked by a) Robust PMI manufacturing and Services, b) Stronger E-way bill and GST collection, d) Heat waves and electricity demand, and e) Election campaigns and rallies. Domestic-facing sectors largely enjoyed the economic recovery backed by these factors and hence, margins may surprise positively.On the other hand, export-oriented themes are likely to showcase relatively weaker performance.Most of the domestic high-frequency indicators have trended higher during the quarter which is likely to translate into good demand momentum for the domestic corporate segment. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul><li>For Steel companies under our coverage, EBITDA/t is expected to increase on a YoY basis, led by higher metal sales volumes YoY and lower coking coal consumption costs, partially offset by lower NSRs (Benchmark Steel HRC prices in the traders market exMumbai have declined by 6% YoY and flat QoQ).</li><li>On a QoQ basis, we expect EBITDA/t growth to moderate or even decline as a decline in coking coal consumption cost is offset by lower NSRs and lower sales volumes over the seasonally strong Q4FY24.</li><li>For Aluminium companies, we expect growth in EBITDA margin to moderate on a QoQ basis.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

For Steel companies under our coverage, EBITDA/t is expected to increase on a YoY basis, led by higher metal sales volumes YoY and lower coking coal consumption costs, partially offset by lower NSRs (Benchmark Steel HRC prices in the traders market exMumbai have declined by 6% YoY and flat QoQ).On a QoQ basis, we expect EBITDA/t growth to moderate or even decline as a decline in coking coal consumption cost is offset by lower NSRs and lower sales volumes over the seasonally strong Q4FY24.For Aluminium companies, we expect growth in EBITDA margin to moderate on a QoQ basis.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alumina-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:939:1" rel="noopener">Alumina Ltd (AWC AU)</a> IE considers <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alcoa-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6510:1" rel="noopener">Alcoa (AA US)</a>’s scheme offer (0.02854 Alcoa shares per Alumina share) fair and reasonable as the terms are within its valuation range. </li>
<li>The offer is conditional on FIRB and Alumina/Alcoa shareholder approval. FIRB approval should be forthcoming as Alcoa already owns most of Alumina’s sole assets (AWAC).</li>
<li>The support of the substantive shareholders and the re-rating of Alcoa shares since 12 March (entry into a SID) has materially lowered the vote risk. This is a done deal.</li>
</ul>


The Alumina Ltd (AWC AU) IE considers Alcoa (AA US)’s scheme offer (0.02854 Alcoa shares per Alumina share) fair and reasonable as the terms are within its valuation range. 
The offer is conditional on FIRB and Alumina/Alcoa shareholder approval. FIRB approval should be forthcoming as Alcoa already owns most of Alumina’s sole assets (AWAC).
The support of the substantive shareholders and the re-rating of Alcoa shares since 12 March (entry into a SID) has materially lowered the vote risk. This is a done deal.


India

Hindalco Industries Limited is an integrated aluminum manufacturer. The Company mines bauxite and refines it into alumina. The Company's other operations include the smelting of alumina into aluminum, the manufacture of semi-fabricated rolled and extruded products. The Company's products include aluminum ingots, steel rods and rolled flat steel products.

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Hindalco Industries (HNDL IN)

Hindalco Industries Ltd - Headwinds Bottoming Out; Maintain BUY

This outperformance was propelled by Indian Aluminium and Copper operations, which demonstrated better-than-anticipated EBITDA due to increased...

Axis Direct

Hindalco Industries Ltd - Margin Recovery at Novelis

Novelis’s Revenue/EBITDA/PAT stood largely in line despite a surprise 9%/6% YoY/QoQ drop in shipments (4% miss) to 879kt due to lower can and...

Axis Direct

Q1FY25 - Consolidated Earnings Preview

Based on our and consensus estimates, we forecast Nifty to deliver Revenue/EBITDA/PAT growth of 7.8%/3%/1.2% respectively for the quarter.

Axis Direct

Metals - Q1FY25 Earnings Preview

For Steel companies under our coverage, EBITDA/t is expected to increase on a YoY basis, led by higher metal sales volumes YoY and lower coking...

Axis Direct

Alumina (AWC AU): Scheme Vote on 18 July

The support of the substantive shareholders and the re-rating of Alcoa shares since 12 March (entry into a SID) has materially lowered the vote...

Arun George

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