Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>On 5th May 2022, Thai Beverage announced that BeerCo will resume its Proposed Spin-off Listing. This time the company is aiming to raise less than US$1bn, as per media reports.</li>
<li>We have looked at various aspects of the deal earlier, as the company had tried to spin-off BeerCo in 2021 as well before finally calling it off in April 2021.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the recent updates for BeerCo.</li>
</ul>


On 5th May 2022, Thai Beverage announced that BeerCo will resume its Proposed Spin-off Listing. This time the company is aiming to raise less than US$1bn, as per media reports.
We have looked at various aspects of the deal earlier, as the company had tried to spin-off BeerCo in 2021 as well before finally calling it off in April 2021.
In this note, we talk about the recent updates for BeerCo.


ThaiBev BeerCo Pre-IPO - Back for Another Round

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<p><strong>The moment of reckoning for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-beverage-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3656:1" rel="noopener">Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)</a> is here</strong>; Phuket Sandbox has given a trial for the tourism reopening, a high and progressing inoculation rate of the tourists' origin countries such as China and Malaysia allow, and the upcoming lifting of quarantine for vaccinated tourists starting November 1st will increase the number of tourists visiting Thailand.</p>
<p>Phuket is the only place in Thailand where alcoholic beverages are allowed to be sold and consumed on-premises but sooner rather than later, the policy will be applied to the whole nation benefiting Thai Beverage. The time to buy <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-beverage-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3656:1" rel="noopener">Thai Beverage (THBEV SP) </a>is now. </p>

The moment of reckoning for Thai Beverage (THBEV SP) is here; Phuket Sandbox has given a trial for the tourism reopening, a high and progressing inoculation rate of the tourists' origin countries such as China and Malaysia allow, and the upcoming lifting of quarantine for vaccinated tourists starting November 1st will increase the number of tourists visiting Thailand.
Phuket is the only place in Thailand where alcoholic beverages are allowed to be sold and consumed on-premises but sooner rather than later, the policy will be applied to the whole nation benefiting Thai Beverage. The time to buy Thai Beverage (THBEV SP) is now. 

<p>Stable result in Q2 2021 despite the increasing COVID-19 cases in Thailand from nightclubs and concerts prompting the Thai government to extend the ban for nightlife entertainment. The interesting part is that contrary to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/berli-jucker-public-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3685:1" rel="noopener">Berli Jucker (BJC TB)'s </a>observation that the Thais are quite happy to drink and socialize at home versus Vietnamese, who tend to consume outside the home, Sabeco (Saigon Bev Company)'s sales volume actually went up during this period and lifted <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-beverage-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3656:1" rel="noopener">Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)</a> results, further reiterating that the Thai may be happy to drink at home but the difficult period has dampened their home drinking appetite. </p><p>Thai Beverage is still trading at a lower valuation to its peak, the current valuation at 17x PER is still higher than 14x forward PER.  The recent Q2 2021 result brought some optimism especially when the management displayed cost savings ability but the spirits and beer outlook remain soft as long as the pandemic is still there. </p>

Stable result in Q2 2021 despite the increasing COVID-19 cases in Thailand from nightclubs and concerts prompting the Thai government to extend the ban for nightlife entertainment. The interesting part is that contrary to Berli Jucker (BJC TB)'s observation that the Thais are quite happy to drink and socialize at home versus Vietnamese, who tend to consume outside the home, Sabeco (Saigon Bev Company)'s sales volume actually went up during this period and lifted Thai Beverage (THBEV SP) results, further reiterating that the Thai may be happy to drink at home but the difficult period has dampened their home drinking appetite. Thai Beverage is still trading at a lower valuation to its peak, the current valuation at 17x PER is still higher than 14x forward PER.  The recent Q2 2021 result brought some optimism especially when the management displayed cost savings ability but the spirits and beer outlook remain soft as long as the pandemic is still there. 

Thai Beverage (THBEV): Weak Quarter Ahead

<p>The two weeks nightlife ban has been put in place by the Thai government and possible further extension if this third wave is not resolved soon enough as the increase in the daily community cases have reached the second wave level. If things do not go under control soon enough, we should expect a stricter measure from the Thai government which means a further extension of the nightlife ban.</p>
<div>Compared to other listed breweries in the region, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-beverage-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3656:1" rel="noopener">Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)</a> is trading at 65% PER discount, 78% PBR discount, and 51% EV/EBITDA discount. Compared to November last year, the valuation gap with the peers remains on the same level with the exception of EV/EBITDA where Thai Bev's high D/E (120%) is the possible cause. </div>
<div></div>
<div>Compared to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cp-all-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13889:1" rel="noopener">CP ALL PCL (CPALL TB)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/airports-of-thailand-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:239:1" rel="noopener">Airports of Thailand (AOT TB)</a> , Thai Beverage is trading at 50% PER discount, 54% PBR discount, and 24% EV/EBITDA discount - the gap somewhat narrowed but Thai Bev remains undervalued. </div>
<div></div>
<p>Since 6 months ago, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-beverage-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3656:1" rel="noopener">Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)</a> has been trading at a discount compared to the peers due to the bigger exposure in domestic tourism. With the reinstatement of the nightlife ban, Thai Bev is likely to trade at discount to the peers until the third wave pandemic is solved and vaccination has started to take place.</p>

The two weeks nightlife ban has been put in place by the Thai government and possible further extension if this third wave is not resolved soon enough as the increase in the daily community cases have reached the second wave level. If things do not go under control soon enough, we should expect a stricter measure from the Thai government which means a further extension of the nightlife ban.
Compared to other listed breweries in the region, Thai Beverage (THBEV SP) is trading at 65% PER discount, 78% PBR discount, and 51% EV/EBITDA discount. Compared to November last year, the valuation gap with the peers remains on the same level with the exception of EV/EBITDA where Thai Bev's high D/E (120%) is the possible cause. 

Compared to CP ALL PCL (CPALL TB) and Airports of Thailand (AOT TB) , Thai Beverage is trading at 50% PER discount, 54% PBR discount, and 24% EV/EBITDA discount - the gap somewhat narrowed but Thai Bev remains undervalued. 

Since 6 months ago, Thai Beverage (THBEV SP) has been trading at a discount compared to the peers due to the bigger exposure in domestic tourism. With the reinstatement of the nightlife ban, Thai Bev is likely to trade at discount to the peers until the third wave pandemic is solved and vaccination has started to take place.

Thai Beverage (THBEV): Not the Time to Buy Yet

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<p>BeerCo consists of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-beverage-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3656:1" rel="noopener">Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)</a>'s beer business and operations except for the sale of Thai beer products outside Thailand. ThaiBev aims to conduct a public offering of up to 20% of the total number of issued ordinary shares of BeerCo through an SGX IPO. The IPO could raise as much as $2 billion, according to press reports. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/thaibev-s-beerco-ipo-first-look" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:47885" rel="noopener">ThaiBev’s BeerCo IPO: First Look</a>, we noted that BeerCo has attractive fundamentals as it will return to growth driven by the recovery in on-premise consumption as the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic wanes. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/thaibev-s-beerco-ipo-valuation-first-look" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:47927" rel="noopener">ThaiBev’s BeerCo IPO: Valuation First Look</a>, we opined that BeerCo's rumoured valuation of $10 billion can be justified. </p><div class="content-highlight"><p>In this note, we take a close look at the BeerCo's 1QFY2021 results released alongside ThaiBev's 1QFY2021 results. BeerCo’s 1QFY2021 results are mixed as the top-line decline driven by largely one-off factors was accompanied by ongoing margin progression and cash generation. We continue to believe that BeerCo is well-placed to return to growth as the year unfolds due to a gradual recovery in on-premise consumption and undemanding comparable periods. </p></div>

BeerCo consists of Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)'s beer business and operations except for the sale of Thai beer products outside Thailand. ThaiBev aims to conduct a public offering of up to 20% of the total number of issued ordinary shares of BeerCo through an SGX IPO. The IPO could raise as much as $2 billion, according to press reports. In ThaiBev’s BeerCo IPO: First Look, we noted that BeerCo has attractive fundamentals as it will return to growth driven by the recovery in on-premise consumption as the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic wanes. In ThaiBev’s BeerCo IPO: Valuation First Look, we opined that BeerCo's rumoured valuation of $10 billion can be justified. In this note, we take a close look at the BeerCo's 1QFY2021 results released alongside ThaiBev's 1QFY2021 results. BeerCo’s 1QFY2021 results are mixed as the top-line decline driven by largely one-off factors was accompanied by ongoing margin progression and cash generation. We continue to believe that BeerCo is well-placed to return to growth as the year unfolds due to a gradual recovery in on-premise consumption and undemanding comparable periods. 

ThaiBev’s BeerCo Limited IPO: 1Q Results

Malaysia

Heineken Malaysia Berhad produces, packages, markets and distributes beer under the Guinness Stout, Anchor Special Beer, Anchor Pilsener Beer, Lion Stout, Anchor Beer, Anchor Ice Beer, Tiger Beer, Heineken Beer, Anglia Shandy, and Malta. Through its subsidiaries, the Company also has operation in property holding and land development.

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Heineken Malaysia Bhd (HEIM MK)

ThaiBev BeerCo Pre-IPO - Back for Another Round

Thai Beverage plans to resume BeerCo's proposed spin-off listing. This time the company is aiming to raise less than US$1bn, as per media reports.

Sumeet Singh

Thai Beverage (THBEV): All Stars Aligned

Phuket is the only place that alcoholic beverages are allowed to be sold on-premises. Soon, the policy will be applied to the whole nation...

Henry Soediarko

Thai Beverage (THBEV): Weak Quarter Ahead

Q2 2021 result brought some optimism especially when the management displayed cost savings ability but the spirits and beer outlook remain soft as...

Henry Soediarko

Thai Beverage (THBEV): Not the Time to Buy Yet

Thai Bev is likely to trade at discount to the peers until the third wave pandemic is solved and vaccination has started to take place.

Henry Soediarko

ThaiBev’s BeerCo Limited IPO: 1Q Results

BeerCo's 1QFY2021 results suggest that it is well-placed to return to growth as the year unfolds due to a gradual recovery in on-premise...

Arun George

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