Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The bear market rally we have been discussing since our Sept. 27 Compass report has begun.</li>
<li>Over half of the Sectors and all the major indexes (S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100, DJIA, and S&amp;P 600 Small Caps) display bullish 2+ month inflections.</li>
<li>As referenced last week, we expect the aforementioned indexes to rally to their 200-day MAs; longer-term, this is still a bear market until they can break above their 200-day MAs.</li>
</ul>


The bear market rally we have been discussing since our Sept. 27 Compass report has begun.
Over half of the Sectors and all the major indexes (S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100, DJIA, and S&amp;P 600 Small Caps) display bullish 2+ month inflections.
As referenced last week, we expect the aforementioned indexes to rally to their 200-day MAs; longer-term, this is still a bear market until they can break above their 200-day MAs.


Another Bear Market Rally Begins; Indexes and Sectors With Bullish 2+ Month Inflections

Consumer Discretionary Select / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to believe that the bear market lows have already been established.</li>
<li>It remains to be seen whether the indexes will experience a meaningful pullback first, or whether we are already experiencing the initial leg of a new bull market.</li>
<li>Thus far, market indexes have ignored overbought conditions, which is historically a sign of strength during the initial leg of new bull markets.</li>
</ul>


We continue to believe that the bear market lows have already been established.
It remains to be seen whether the indexes will experience a meaningful pullback first, or whether we are already experiencing the initial leg of a new bull market.
Thus far, market indexes have ignored overbought conditions, which is historically a sign of strength during the initial leg of new bull markets.


Upgrading Discretionary to Overweight, Downgrading Energy & Health Care to Market Weight

<ul>
<li>We continue to view the price action over the past month as a bear market bounce in the S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM).</li>
<li>Each index appears to be forming a bearish flag pattern. Until the S&amp;P 500, QQQ, and IWM can break above their YTD downtrends, we remain bearish.</li>
<li>We continue to believe that this bear market is being fueled by the rising U.S. dollar (DXY), rising 10-yr Treasury yield, and the move higher in WTI crude oil.</li>
</ul>


We continue to view the price action over the past month as a bear market bounce in the S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM).
Each index appears to be forming a bearish flag pattern. Until the S&amp;P 500, QQQ, and IWM can break above their YTD downtrends, we remain bearish.
We continue to believe that this bear market is being fueled by the rising U.S. dollar (DXY), rising 10-yr Treasury yield, and the move higher in WTI crude oil.


U.S. Indexes Form Bear Flag Patterns Within Downtrends; Opportunities Within Health Care

<ul>
<li>We see the S&amp;P 500 as trading within a downtrend channel; as long as it remains within this channel, our intermediate to long-term outlook is bearish at the index level.</li>
<li>With that said, the S&amp;P 500 is currently testing support within the downtrend channel, and we are on watch for a potential bear market rally.</li>
<li>We will need to see a bullish reversal of the 1-month downtrend (currently at 4030-4050) to have confidence that a tradeable bounce is underway, with the potential for more.</li>
</ul>


We see the S&amp;P 500 as trading within a downtrend channel; as long as it remains within this channel, our intermediate to long-term outlook is bearish at the index level.
With that said, the S&amp;P 500 is currently testing support within the downtrend channel, and we are on watch for a potential bear market rally.
We will need to see a bullish reversal of the 1-month downtrend (currently at 4030-4050) to have confidence that a tradeable bounce is underway, with the potential for more.


S&P 500 Downtrend Channel Intact & Testing Support; Buy Ideas Within Energy & Biotech

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Over the last one month, the U.S. healthcare sector remained mostly resilient to the inflation risk and gained 7.1% outperforming S&amp;P 500 index’s gain of 5%.  </li>
<li>Sound financials, high revenue visibility, low or no debt, and cash rich position are some of the reasons for the outperformance.</li>
<li>In this insight, we have handpicked top-quality healthcare sector bets from the S&amp;P 500 index and discussed about their growth stories.</li>
</ul>


Over the last one month, the U.S. healthcare sector remained mostly resilient to the inflation risk and gained 7.1% outperforming S&amp;P 500 index’s gain of 5%.  
Sound financials, high revenue visibility, low or no debt, and cash rich position are some of the reasons for the outperformance.
In this insight, we have handpicked top-quality healthcare sector bets from the S&amp;P 500 index and discussed about their growth stories.


U.S. Healthcare Sector: Ride Out Market Turmoil with High-Quality Large-Cap Ideas

United States

Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA.  The Fund's objective is to provide investment results that correspond to the performance of The Health Care Select Sector Index.  The Index includes companies involved in health care equipment and supplies, health care providers and services, biotechnology & pharmaceuticals.

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Health Care Select Sector SPDR (XLV US)

Another Bear Market Rally Begins; Indexes and Sectors With Bullish 2+ Month Inflections

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Upgrading Discretionary to Overweight, Downgrading Energy & Health Care to Market Weight

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U.S. Indexes Form Bear Flag Patterns Within Downtrends; Opportunities Within Health Care

We continue to view the price action over the past month as a bear market bounce in the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM), as each...

Vermilion Research

S&P 500 Downtrend Channel Intact & Testing Support; Buy Ideas Within Energy & Biotech

The $SPX is trading within a downtrend channel; as long as it remains within this channel, our intermediate to long-term outlook is bearish at the...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Healthcare Sector: Ride Out Market Turmoil with High-Quality Large-Cap Ideas

Healthcare sector is expected to remain resilient to the inflation worry and outperform broader market in near-term. This insight highlights top...

Tina Banerjee

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