Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

*Better – But Not Good: Bank of Baroda (BOB.IN) [BOB] reported FY 2Q21 results of INR 16.8bn, quite a reversal of fortune from the losses of INR 8.6 bn in FY 1Q21. Several factors drove BOB’s outperformance: a) net interest income improvement of INR 7.5 bn (11.0%) linked quarter driven solely by NIM expansion of 31 bp to 2.86% while the loan book contracted 1.8%; b) fee revenue improvement of INR 2.6 bn (22.2%) on the back of higher loan processing fees as retail loan disbursements increased; and c) most importantly, an INR 26.3 bn (46.7%) reduction in loss provisions as annualized net new NPL creation dropped precipitously to just 2.0%;*Poor Reserve Cover: Excluding the September 2016 Supreme Court standstill on NPL classification, BOB’s NPLs still would have declined INR 19.9 bn (2.9%) and the NPL ratio would have been 9.30% - still improving 10 bp over the previous quarter. Anything over 8% suggest institutions are insolvent. By our calculation, however, BOB’s reserves still remain light by INR 245 bn or nearly ten quarters of pre-tax earnings – this prior to its merger with Vijaya and Dena Banks; and       *Capital Raise A Real Challenge: Merger-related challenges leading to growth slowdown, higher NPLs on portfolio alignment, and continued deterioration in the international business. Equity dilution is BOB’s single largest risk.

*Better – But Not Good: Bank of Baroda (BOB.IN) [BOB] reported FY 2Q21 results of INR 16.8bn, quite a reversal of fortune from the losses of INR 8.6 bn in FY 1Q21. Several factors drove BOB’s outperformance: a) net interest income improvement of INR 7.5 bn (11.0%) linked quarter driven solely by NIM expansion of 31 bp to 2.86% while the loan book contracted 1.8%; b) fee revenue improvement of INR 2.6 bn (22.2%) on the back of higher loan processing fees as retail loan disbursements increased; and c) most importantly, an INR 26.3 bn (46.7%) reduction in loss provisions as annualized net new NPL creation dropped precipitously to just 2.0%;*Poor Reserve Cover: Excluding the September 2016 Supreme Court standstill on NPL classification, BOB’s NPLs still would have declined INR 19.9 bn (2.9%) and the NPL ratio would have been 9.30% - still improving 10 bp over the previous quarter. Anything over 8% suggest institutions are insolvent. By our calculation, however, BOB’s reserves still remain light by INR 245 bn or nearly ten quarters of pre-tax earnings – this prior to its merger with Vijaya and Dena Banks; and       *Capital Raise A Real Challenge: Merger-related challenges leading to growth slowdown, higher NPLs on portfolio alignment, and continued deterioration in the international business. Equity dilution is BOB’s single largest risk.

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Last Week in Event SPACE: Coca Cola Amatil, Shimachu, AMP, Hitachi, Jardines, Evergrande

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

After trading at a premium of just over 10% for a long time, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:559:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Bank (ADR) (HDB US)</a> is now trading at a 20% premium to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-bank-ltd-4b6b7a92-9087-468d-9dbe-ab169e77f014" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:558:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN)</a> with the spike coming in the last couple of weeks during which time the volumes on the ADR have been higher than normal.While there may be more flow coming on the ADR, we feel that the premium should peak in the near future and recommend selling the ADR, buying the local shares (or the single stock futures) and hedging the USDINR FX. With local shares available to foreign investors, existing holders of ADRs should look to switch to the local line.In this Insight, we look at the ADR premium, the shareholding pattern on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-bank-ltd-4b6b7a92-9087-468d-9dbe-ab169e77f014" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:558:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN)</a>, the ADR headroom, the FPI holding on HDFC Bank, and catalysts that could take the premium higher or lower.

After trading at a premium of just over 10% for a long time, HDFC Bank (ADR) (HDB US) is now trading at a 20% premium to HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) with the spike coming in the last couple of weeks during which time the volumes on the ADR have been higher than normal.While there may be more flow coming on the ADR, we feel that the premium should peak in the near future and recommend selling the ADR, buying the local shares (or the single stock futures) and hedging the USDINR FX. With local shares available to foreign investors, existing holders of ADRs should look to switch to the local line.In this Insight, we look at the ADR premium, the shareholding pattern on HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN), the ADR headroom, the FPI holding on HDFC Bank, and catalysts that could take the premium higher or lower. 

HDFC Bank ADR - Too High a Premium to Pay

*Solid Results In FY 2Q21: Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB.IN) [Kotak] reported a fairly stellar FY 2Q21 earnings result of INR 21.8 bn – exceeding FY 1Q21 results by INR 9.3 bn or 75.5% - a high quality beat of consensus as well; and*Strong Credit Metrics Across The Board: Gross NPLs were flattish linked quarter, while net new NPLs increased just INR 1.1 bn or 7.6% on an annualized basis. Further, despite the loss provisioning decline of INR 5.9 bn (61.7%), loss reserves at KMB increased INR 2.8 bn (7.4%) as NCOs continue to decelerate.

*Solid Results In FY 2Q21: Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB.IN) [Kotak] reported a fairly stellar FY 2Q21 earnings result of INR 21.8 bn – exceeding FY 1Q21 results by INR 9.3 bn or 75.5% - a high quality beat of consensus as well; and*Strong Credit Metrics Across The Board: Gross NPLs were flattish linked quarter, while net new NPLs increased just INR 1.1 bn or 7.6% on an annualized basis. Further, despite the loss provisioning decline of INR 5.9 bn (61.7%), loss reserves at KMB increased INR 2.8 bn (7.4%) as NCOs continue to decelerate. 

Kotak Mahindra Bank – Surprisingly Strong Performance

Specialist in Indian Banking and Economic Research

Hemindra Hazari

Aditya Puri, the iconic first CEO of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-bank-ltd-4b6b7a92-9087-468d-9dbe-ab169e77f014" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:558:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN)</a>, will finally step down on October 26, 2020 after 26 years at the helm. In this period he rightly deserves the credit for making HDFC Bank India’s most valuable bank, with a market capitalisation of US$ 92.1 bn, and the largest private sector bank in India. His leadership qualities, banking <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/12-lessons-from-grand-master-banking-mr-aditya-puri-aseem-dhru/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">acumen</a>  and ability to predict change in trends at an early stage insulated the bank from the pitfalls that befell the rest of the banking industry in India.  His single minded dedication to profit maximisation ensured HDFC Bank’s premium valuation on the capital market. While commentators have highlighted his positive attributes, stakeholders and the public should also be aware of his Achilles Heel, namely a history of non-compliance to banking norms and regulation, which was publicly visible when he was heading Citibank’s corporate business in India in 1990. The ruthlessly efficient business model he implemented in HDFC Bank brought with it certain unsavoury aspects of banking: non-compliance with regulatory norms, practices highlighted by the <a href="https://www.cobrapost.com/blog/investigation%20hdfc-bank-introduction/949" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Cobrapost expose</a>, the <a href="https://hemindrahazari.com/2020/09/20/us-firms-class-action-suits-hdfc-banks-auto-loan-malpractices-have-hit-the-fan/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">mis-selling</a> of products to unsuspecting customers, the high pressure on lower level staff to achieve ambitious targets and the lack of transparency to stakeholders on important developments such as  irregularities at the bank and the sudden  <a href="https://hemindrahazari.com/2020/07/13/another-top-executive-leaves-hdfc-bank-but-dont-try-finding-the-news-in-the-media/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">exits</a>  of senior staff. Sashidhar Jagdisan, Puri’s handpicked successor, inherits a strong banking platform geared towards shareholder returns and growth, but he should ensure that HDFC Bank avoids the fate of Wells Fargo, a bank much admired by Puri before it suffered setbacks due to mis-selling and poor adherence to regulatory norms.

Aditya Puri, the iconic first CEO of HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN), will finally step down on October 26, 2020 after 26 years at the helm. In this period he rightly deserves the credit for making HDFC Bank India’s most valuable bank, with a market capitalisation of US$ 92.1 bn, and the largest private sector bank in India. His leadership qualities, banking acumen  and ability to predict change in trends at an early stage insulated the bank from the pitfalls that befell the rest of the banking industry in India.  His single minded dedication to profit maximisation ensured HDFC Bank’s premium valuation on the capital market. While commentators have highlighted his positive attributes, stakeholders and the public should also be aware of his Achilles Heel, namely a history of non-compliance to banking norms and regulation, which was publicly visible when he was heading Citibank’s corporate business in India in 1990. The ruthlessly efficient business model he implemented in HDFC Bank brought with it certain unsavoury aspects of banking: non-compliance with regulatory norms, practices highlighted by the Cobrapost expose, the mis-selling of products to unsuspecting customers, the high pressure on lower level staff to achieve ambitious targets and the lack of transparency to stakeholders on important developments such as  irregularities at the bank and the sudden  exits  of senior staff. Sashidhar Jagdisan, Puri’s handpicked successor, inherits a strong banking platform geared towards shareholder returns and growth, but he should ensure that HDFC Bank avoids the fate of Wells Fargo, a bank much admired by Puri before it suffered setbacks due to mis-selling and poor adherence to regulatory norms.

Time to Junk the Less Savoury Parts of the Legacy of HDFC Bank’s Iconic CEO

India

HDFC Bank Ltd. offers a wide range of services to the global corporate sector. The Bank provides corporate banking and custodial services and is active in the treasury and capital markets. HDFC also markets project advisory services and capital market products such as Global Deposit Receipts, Euro currency loans, and Euro currency bonds.

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HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN)

Bank of Baroda – Scary On Halloween

BANK OF BARODA: Manufactured Profits Ahead Of Capital Raise. BOB Already Appears Insolvent With 9.3% NPLs and 10 Quarter Reserve Shortfall

Thomas J. Monaco

Last Week in Event SPACE: Coca Cola Amatil, Shimachu, AMP, Hitachi, Jardines, Evergrande

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

HDFC Bank ADR - Too High a Premium to Pay

With the HDFC Bank ADR premium spiking to 20% in the last couple of weeks, we look at the ADR premium history and suggest scaling into a short ADR/...

Brian Freitas

Kotak Mahindra Bank – Surprisingly Strong Performance

KOTAK MAHINDRA BANK: Surprise, Surprise, Surprise. Both Credit Metrics and Ne Interest Income Improves As Risk Substantially Declines

Thomas J. Monaco

Time to Junk the Less Savoury Parts of the Legacy of HDFC Bank’s Iconic CEO

While commentators have highlighted Puri's positive attributes, stakeholders should also be aware of his Achilles Heel, namely a history of non...

Hemindra Hazari

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