Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We continue our earnings coverage highlighting key earnings and what catches our attention in the conference calls.</li>
<li>For this edition we focus on select Banking names like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-bank-ltd-4b6b7a92-9087-468d-9dbe-ab169e77f014" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:558:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN)</a>; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kotak-mahindra-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:126:1" rel="noopener">Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB IN); </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rbl-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22856:1" rel="noopener">RBL Bank Ltd (RBK IN)</a>.</li>
<li>We are bearish on most names except <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/axis-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:768:1" rel="noopener">Axis Bank Ltd (AXSB IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bandhan-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26705:1" rel="noopener">Bandhan Bank Ltd (BANDHAN IN)</a>. </li>
</ul>


We continue our earnings coverage highlighting key earnings and what catches our attention in the conference calls.
For this edition we focus on select Banking names like HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN); Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB IN); RBL Bank Ltd (RBK IN).
We are bearish on most names except Axis Bank Ltd (AXSB IN) and Bandhan Bank Ltd (BANDHAN IN). 


Namaste India 🙏 | Earnings Edition - Banking Special

Equity L/S Analyst | Forensic Accounting | India, Yellowstone Equity

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

Equity L/S Analyst | Forensic Accounting | India

Creating Wealth through Alpha and Compounding

Yellowstone Equity

Providing unbiased and independent research on Indian equities to global institutions and individual investors


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Regulatory Disclosure: 
Note that Ankit Agrawal (Proprietor of Yellowstone Equity) is a SEBI registered Research Analyst (Registration No.: INH000007216). Registration granted by SEBI and certification from NISM in no way guarantee performance of the intermediary or provide any assurance of returns to investors. Investment in securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing.

Research Analyst Contact Details:
Address: A-412, Shilp Aaron, Sindhu Bhavan Road, Ahmedabad, Gujarat - 380059
Email: services@yellowstoneequity.com
Mobile: +91-7575817289

Compliance/Grievance Officer:
Name: Ankit Agrawal
Email: services@yellowstoneequity.com
Mobile: +91-7575817289
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<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-bank-ltd-4b6b7a92-9087-468d-9dbe-ab169e77f014" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:558:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Bank</a> reported a decent Q2FY25 despite industry headwinds. Average deposits grew 15.5% YoY and 3.1% QoQ. Terms deposits led the growth with 5% QoQ rise.</li>
<li>AUM growth was modest at 10.2% YoY in line with HDFC Bank's stated strategy to grow AUM lower than deposits to bring down the credit-deposit ratio to a reasonable level.</li>
<li>Asset quality remains stable with GNPA at ~1.35%. ROA and ROE continues to be around 1.9% and 15%, respectively. LCR is now healthy at 128% vs 110% 9M ago.</li>
</ul>



HDFC Bank reported a decent Q2FY25 despite industry headwinds. Average deposits grew 15.5% YoY and 3.1% QoQ. Terms deposits led the growth with 5% QoQ rise.
AUM growth was modest at 10.2% YoY in line with HDFC Bank's stated strategy to grow AUM lower than deposits to bring down the credit-deposit ratio to a reasonable level.
Asset quality remains stable with GNPA at ~1.35%. ROA and ROE continues to be around 1.9% and 15%, respectively. LCR is now healthy at 128% vs 110% 9M ago.


Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Companies in India have disclosed their shareholding pattern as of end-September in October. There are companies with significant float changes from end-March and/or end-June.</li>
<li>The changes in free float could be reflected in domestic and global indices over the next few weeks and months resulting in action from passive trackers.</li>
<li>Depending on the date that the shareholding was published, there could be 11 stocks with passive inflows from global trackers while 6 could see passive outflows in November.</li>
</ul>


Companies in India have disclosed their shareholding pattern as of end-September in October. There are companies with significant float changes from end-March and/or end-June.
The changes in free float could be reflected in domestic and global indices over the next few weeks and months resulting in action from passive trackers.
Depending on the date that the shareholding was published, there could be 11 stocks with passive inflows from global trackers while 6 could see passive outflows in November.


India: Potential Free Float Changes & Passive Flows in November

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Sharekhan

Sharekhan

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Sharekhan is India's leading broking house providing services from easy online trading, research to wide array of financial products. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>HDFC Bank reported broadly in-line performance with strong deposit growth in Q2FY2025.</li><li>Given the transition period, management’s relentless focus is towards balance sheet management and stability in return ratios.</li><li>The bank shared its glide path for loan growth. In FY2025, it would probably grow slower than the system.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HDFC Bank reported broadly in-line performance with strong deposit growth in Q2FY2025.Given the transition period, management’s relentless focus is towards balance sheet management and stability in return ratios.The bank shared its glide path for loan growth. In FY2025, it would probably grow slower than the system.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HDFC Bank Ltd - Better Visibility Going Ahead

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited

Motilal Oswal

Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited

Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited is an Indian diversified financial services firm offering a range of financial products and services. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>HDFC Bank (HDFCB) reported steady performance in 2QFY25, with net earnings of INR168.2b (~3% beat).</li><li>NIMs declined 1bp QoQ to 3.46%, while the C/D ratio declined sharply by ~4% QoQ to 99.8%.</li><li>Provisions were 5% higher than MOFSLe at INR27b.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HDFC Bank (HDFCB) reported steady performance in 2QFY25, with net earnings of INR168.2b (~3% beat).NIMs declined 1bp QoQ to 3.46%, while the C/D ratio declined sharply by ~4% QoQ to 99.8%.Provisions were 5% higher than MOFSLe at INR27b.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HDFC Bank - Steadily Moving Towards Improved Growth and Profitability

India

HDFC Bank Ltd. offers a wide range of services to the global corporate sector. The Bank provides corporate banking and custodial services and is active in the treasury and capital markets. HDFC also markets project advisory services and capital market products such as Global Deposit Receipts, Euro currency loans, and Euro currency bonds.

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HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN)

Namaste India 🙏 | Earnings Edition - Banking Special

We cover key earnings and conference call highlights for select Banking names, with a bearish outlook on most except for Axis Bank Ltd and Bandhan...

Pranav Bhavsar

HDFC Bank: Medium-Term Outlook Is Strong

FY25 will see modest credit growth due to merger constraints and weak environment for deposits. However, FY26 onwards, growth is expected to revert...

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

India: Potential Free Float Changes & Passive Flows in November

Changes to shareholding patterns could lead to changes in float for some stocks in local/global indices. Passive trackers will need to trade over 4...

Brian Freitas

HDFC Bank Ltd - Better Visibility Going Ahead

HDFC Bank reported broadly in-line performance with strong deposit growth in Q2FY2025. Given the transition period, management’s relentless focus...

Sharekhan

HDFC Bank - Steadily Moving Towards Improved Growth and Profitability

NIMs declined 1bp QoQ to 3.46%, while the C/D ratio declined sharply by ~4% QoQ to 99.8%. Provisions were 5% higher than MOFSLe at INR27b.

Motilal Oswal

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