Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>There is renewed interest in HDFC Bank given potential for stock index re-balancing as well as an acquisition for one of its subsidiaries </li>
<li>The story with HDFC Bank is strong regardless of these new ancillary positives, where growth is incredibly stable, and credit metrics shine</li>
<li>We remind that the amalgamation of HDFC Finance remains new, and gains are still not fully reflected, but a look at costs/assets shows progress</li>
</ul>


There is renewed interest in HDFC Bank given potential for stock index re-balancing as well as an acquisition for one of its subsidiaries 
The story with HDFC Bank is strong regardless of these new ancillary positives, where growth is incredibly stable, and credit metrics shine
We remind that the amalgamation of HDFC Finance remains new, and gains are still not fully reflected, but a look at costs/assets shows progress


HDFC Bank - Rebalancing & MUFG Acquisition Benefit, Ongoing NPL Stability & Profit Strength

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Foreign shareholding in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-bank-ltd-4b6b7a92-9087-468d-9dbe-ab169e77f014" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:558:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN)</a> has dropped to 54.83% and that results in foreign room crossing the 'magical' 25% mark.</li>
<li>The increase in foreign room could lead to passive trackers of a global index needing to buy 256m shares (US$5.3bn; 11.5x ADV) at the end of August.</li>
<li>There will definitely be positioning in the stock but there should still be upside in the stock. The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:559:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Bank (ADR) (HDB US)</a> line was up 4.5% overnight.</li>
</ul>


Foreign shareholding in HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) has dropped to 54.83% and that results in foreign room crossing the 'magical' 25% mark.
The increase in foreign room could lead to passive trackers of a global index needing to buy 256m shares (US$5.3bn; 11.5x ADV) at the end of August.
There will definitely be positioning in the stock but there should still be upside in the stock. The HDFC Bank (ADR) (HDB US) line was up 4.5% overnight.


HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN): Foreign Room Crosses 25%; Index Implications & Positioning for US$5bn+ Buying

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>HDFC Bank (HDFCB) is the second-largest bank in the country with a Balance Sheet size of ~Rs 36 Tn (post merger).</li><li>As of Mar’24, the bank has 8,738 branches and 20,938 ATMs spread across 4,065 Indian cities.</li><li>Post the merger with HDFC Ltd., amongst the key subsidiaries of the bank are HDFC Life, HDFC ERGO General Insurance, HDFC AMC, HDB Financial and HDFC Securities.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

HDFC Bank (HDFCB) is the second-largest bank in the country with a Balance Sheet size of ~Rs 36 Tn (post merger).As of Mar’24, the bank has 8,738 branches and 20,938 ATMs spread across 4,065 Indian cities.Post the merger with HDFC Ltd., amongst the key subsidiaries of the bank are HDFC Life, HDFC ERGO General Insurance, HDFC AMC, HDB Financial and HDFC Securities.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Pick of the Week: HDFC Bank Ltd. - 03 JUNE 2024

Equity L/S Analyst | Forensic Accounting | India, Yellowstone Equity

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

Equity L/S Analyst | Forensic Accounting | India

Creating Wealth through Alpha and Compounding

Yellowstone Equity

Providing unbiased and independent research on Indian equities to global institutions and individual investors


-------------
Regulatory Disclosure: 
Note that Ankit Agrawal (Proprietor of Yellowstone Equity) is a SEBI registered Research Analyst (Registration No.: INH000007216). Registration granted by SEBI and certification from NISM in no way guarantee performance of the intermediary or provide any assurance of returns to investors. Investment in securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing.

Research Analyst Contact Details:
Address: A-412, Shilp Aaron, Sindhu Bhavan Road, Ahmedabad, Gujarat - 380059
Email: services@yellowstoneequity.com
Mobile: +91-7575817289

Compliance/Grievance Officer:
Name: Ankit Agrawal
Email: services@yellowstoneequity.com
Mobile: +91-7575817289
-------------

<ul>
<li>While HDFCB's results have been somewhat lackluster over the past couple of quarters, this has been largely due to merger-related drags, tight liquidity and irrational competition in the marketplace.</li>
<li>From a medium-to-long-term perspective, the growth prospects for HDFCB remain tremendously attractive despite its large size, as evident from its consistent market share gains in deposits.</li>
<li>Q4FY24 earnings came largely in line with the expectation in terms of core earnings, except for one-off gain from an asset sale that was more than offset by floating provisions.</li>
</ul>


While HDFCB's results have been somewhat lackluster over the past couple of quarters, this has been largely due to merger-related drags, tight liquidity and irrational competition in the marketplace.
From a medium-to-long-term perspective, the growth prospects for HDFCB remain tremendously attractive despite its large size, as evident from its consistent market share gains in deposits.
Q4FY24 earnings came largely in line with the expectation in terms of core earnings, except for one-off gain from an asset sale that was more than offset by floating provisions.


HDFC Bank (HDFCB): Looking Beyond Short-Term Headwinds

India BFSI - Long-Short - Equity Research Analyst

Raj S, CA, CFA

Artoval Advisors

Art’o’val stands for Art of Valuation. Artoval Advisors LLP is a professionally run advisory firm catering to various financial advisory services including Valuation, Investment Research, Training, Accounting, CFO Services and other ancillary services.

We are passionate about what we do and strongly believe in working with our clients as their extended teams. With Artoval Advisors as their trusted partner, our clients find it easy to achieve efficiency in service delivery without compromising on quality.

True Art of Valuation

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-bank-ltd-4b6b7a92-9087-468d-9dbe-ab169e77f014" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:558:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN)</a> has been the most successful bank in India over the last two decades, delivering best-in-class performance consistently; Things changed drastically with the merger with HDFC Ltd.</li>
<li>The negatives outweigh the positives in the near-term from the merger; the synergies, which are significant, are long-term in nature and hence would take time to play out.</li>
<li>We remain long-term believers, but it is a "Short" in the short-term as we expect further -20% correction in valuations</li>
</ul>



HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) has been the most successful bank in India over the last two decades, delivering best-in-class performance consistently; Things changed drastically with the merger with HDFC Ltd.
The negatives outweigh the positives in the near-term from the merger; the synergies, which are significant, are long-term in nature and hence would take time to play out.
We remain long-term believers, but it is a "Short" in the short-term as we expect further -20% correction in valuations


HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN): Initiating Coverage – Long Term Compounder; But "Short" For Now

India

HDFC Bank Ltd. offers a wide range of services to the global corporate sector. The Bank provides corporate banking and custodial services and is active in the treasury and capital markets. HDFC also markets project advisory services and capital market products such as Global Deposit Receipts, Euro currency loans, and Euro currency bonds.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN)

HDFC Bank - Rebalancing & MUFG Acquisition Benefit, Ongoing NPL Stability & Profit Strength

Renewed interest from a potential re-balancing, and a possible MUFG purchase for HDB. It shines on its own: stability, growth, credit metrics, with...

Daniel Tabbush