Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In the Korean stock market, one of the biggest positive catalysts of Donald Trump becoming the next United States President has been the shipbuilding sector.</li>
<li>About 20 years, the United States had a dominant naval superiority versus China. That is no longer the case. </li>
<li>There is a likely scenario of the US Navy increasingly outsourcing the construction and after-service of its fleet to Korean companies such as Hanwha Ocean and HD Hyundai Heavy Industries.</li>
</ul>


In the Korean stock market, one of the biggest positive catalysts of Donald Trump becoming the next United States President has been the shipbuilding sector.
About 20 years, the United States had a dominant naval superiority versus China. That is no longer the case. 
There is a likely scenario of the US Navy increasingly outsourcing the construction and after-service of its fleet to Korean companies such as Hanwha Ocean and HD Hyundai Heavy Industries.


Trump Catalyst - Korean Shipbuilding Sector

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The June 22 lock-up release, involving a 1.68% stake by Eximbank, is drawing attention, with concerns these shares might hit the market immediately, impacting prices significantly.</li>
<li>Eximbank is likely to sell its shares quickly post-lock-up, fueling speculation and potential market reactions, as their focus is on financial stability, not long-term holdings.</li>
<li>The 1.68% block deal could significantly impact Hanwha Ocean's price, similar to last year's 6.4% drop after a smaller block deal announcement by the Korean Financial Services Commission.</li>
</ul>


The June 22 lock-up release, involving a 1.68% stake by Eximbank, is drawing attention, with concerns these shares might hit the market immediately, impacting prices significantly.
Eximbank is likely to sell its shares quickly post-lock-up, fueling speculation and potential market reactions, as their focus is on financial stability, not long-term holdings.
The 1.68% block deal could significantly impact Hanwha Ocean's price, similar to last year's 6.4% drop after a smaller block deal announcement by the Korean Financial Services Commission.


Hanwha Ocean's June 22 Release of a 1.68% Stake Grabs Local Market Attention

<ul>
<li>We discuss the end of the mandatory lock-up periods for 45 stocks in Korea in June 2024, among which 5 are in KOSPI and 40 are in KOSDAQ.</li>
<li>These 45 stocks on average could be subject to further selling pressures in June and could underperform relative to the market.</li>
<li>The top three market cap stocks including those of which at least 1% of outstanding shares could be sold in June include Hanwha Ocean, LS Materials, and Komico. </li>
</ul>


We discuss the end of the mandatory lock-up periods for 45 stocks in Korea in June 2024, among which 5 are in KOSPI and 40 are in KOSDAQ.
These 45 stocks on average could be subject to further selling pressures in June and could underperform relative to the market.
The top three market cap stocks including those of which at least 1% of outstanding shares could be sold in June include Hanwha Ocean, LS Materials, and Komico. 


End of Mandatory Lock-Up Periods for 45 Companies in Korea in June 2024

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>On the 11th September, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hanwha-ocean-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12531:1" rel="noopener">Hanwha Ocean (042660 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hanwha-aerospace-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:504:1" rel="noopener">Hanwha Aerospace (012450 KS)</a>, collectively holding 25.36%, made a S$0.60/share cash Offer for shares not owned, conditional on a 50% acceptance.</li>
<li>The transaction stalled on the 24th September, when the estate of Dyna-Mac’s founding shareholder, Desmond Lim Tze Jong (holding ~35% currently) reckoned the Offer “does not adequately reflect” Dyna-Mac’s value.</li>
<li>Hanwha Group has now bumped terms by 11.67% to S$0.67/share, best &amp; final. That's a 35.4% premium to undisturbed, and a decade high. No word, yet, from the Lim estate.</li>
</ul>


On the 11th September, Hanwha Ocean (042660 KS) and Hanwha Aerospace (012450 KS), collectively holding 25.36%, made a S$0.60/share cash Offer for shares not owned, conditional on a 50% acceptance.
The transaction stalled on the 24th September, when the estate of Dyna-Mac’s founding shareholder, Desmond Lim Tze Jong (holding ~35% currently) reckoned the Offer “does not adequately reflect” Dyna-Mac’s value.
Hanwha Group has now bumped terms by 11.67% to S$0.67/share, best &amp; final. That's a 35.4% premium to undisturbed, and a decade high. No word, yet, from the Lim estate.


Dyna-Mac (DMHL SP): No Alternative As Hanwha Group Bumps

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>After a 35% price decline in 2021 and 11% performance YTD, we are exploring if SMM is able to capitalize on the high oil price environment.</li>
<li>We will look at its recent financial performance, orderbook, and financial forecast in 2022.</li>
<li>We will also look at how to value the company and the key risk with our valuation.</li>
</ul>


After a 35% price decline in 2021 and 11% performance YTD, we are exploring if SMM is able to capitalize on the high oil price environment.
We will look at its recent financial performance, orderbook, and financial forecast in 2022.
We will also look at how to value the company and the key risk with our valuation.


Sembcorp Marine: Beneficiary of High Oil Price? Not so Fast

South Korea

Hanwha Ocean Co., Ltd. operates as a shipbuilding and offshore company. The Company provides floating structure construction, steel wire drying, commercial vessels, specialty vessels, gas carrier, tanker, containership, ro ro, bulk carrier, submarine, warship, auxiliaries, cruise ships, and ferries manufacturing services. Hanwha Ocean also offers onshore plants services.

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Hanwha Ocean (042660 KS)

Trump Catalyst - Korean Shipbuilding Sector

The Korean shipbuilding sector (especially shipbuilding companies including Hanwha Ocean and HD Hyundai Heavy Industries) is a major beneficiary of...

Douglas Kim

Hanwha Ocean's June 22 Release of a 1.68% Stake Grabs Local Market Attention

This post investigates Hanwha Ocean's lockup releases in June, particularly the one scheduled for June 22nd involving Korea Eximbank.

Sanghyun Park

End of Mandatory Lock-Up Periods for 45 Companies in Korea in June 2024

We discuss the end of the mandatory lock-up periods for 45 stocks in Korea in June 2024, among which 5 are in KOSPI and 40 are in KOSDAQ.

Douglas Kim

Dyna-Mac (DMHL SP): No Alternative As Hanwha Group Bumps

Trading at S$0.65/share as I type. If I was an arbitrageur, and already in, I'd be selling here and into strength Look to (re) enter on any...

David Blennerhassett

Sembcorp Marine: Beneficiary of High Oil Price? Not so Fast

In this rapid response, we examine the business of Sembcorp Marine and are of the view that the high oil price will not translate into a more...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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