Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The June 22 lock-up release, involving a 1.68% stake by Eximbank, is drawing attention, with concerns these shares might hit the market immediately, impacting prices significantly.</li>
<li>Eximbank is likely to sell its shares quickly post-lock-up, fueling speculation and potential market reactions, as their focus is on financial stability, not long-term holdings.</li>
<li>The 1.68% block deal could significantly impact Hanwha Ocean's price, similar to last year's 6.4% drop after a smaller block deal announcement by the Korean Financial Services Commission.</li>
</ul>


The June 22 lock-up release, involving a 1.68% stake by Eximbank, is drawing attention, with concerns these shares might hit the market immediately, impacting prices significantly.
Eximbank is likely to sell its shares quickly post-lock-up, fueling speculation and potential market reactions, as their focus is on financial stability, not long-term holdings.
The 1.68% block deal could significantly impact Hanwha Ocean's price, similar to last year's 6.4% drop after a smaller block deal announcement by the Korean Financial Services Commission.


Hanwha Ocean's June 22 Release of a 1.68% Stake Grabs Local Market Attention

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

<ul>
<li>We discuss the end of the mandatory lock-up periods for 45 stocks in Korea in June 2024, among which 5 are in KOSPI and 40 are in KOSDAQ.</li>
<li>These 45 stocks on average could be subject to further selling pressures in June and could underperform relative to the market.</li>
<li><strong>The top three market cap stocks including those of which at least 1% of outstanding shares could be sold in June include Hanwha Ocean, LS Materials, and Komico. </strong></li>
</ul>


We discuss the end of the mandatory lock-up periods for 45 stocks in Korea in June 2024, among which 5 are in KOSPI and 40 are in KOSDAQ.
These 45 stocks on average could be subject to further selling pressures in June and could underperform relative to the market.
The top three market cap stocks including those of which at least 1% of outstanding shares could be sold in June include Hanwha Ocean, LS Materials, and Komico. 


End of Mandatory Lock-Up Periods for 45 Companies in Korea in June 2024

<ul>
<li>The day the basis spread disappears is this Friday, the 24th of November. This mirrors a comparable pattern observed during Korean Air's rights offering in 2020.</li>
<li>If the spot price does not fall below the futures price of our entry until this Friday, we could potentially be in a profitable range.</li>
<li>There has been a notable pattern where the spread continues to exist until just before the moment when new share selling becomes feasible.</li>
</ul>


The day the basis spread disappears is this Friday, the 24th of November. This mirrors a comparable pattern observed during Korean Air's rights offering in 2020.
If the spot price does not fall below the futures price of our entry until this Friday, we could potentially be in a profitable range.
There has been a notable pattern where the spread continues to exist until just before the moment when new share selling becomes feasible.


What Should We Do About the Futures Basis Spread Caused by Hanwha Ocean's Rights Offering?

<ul>
<li>Hanwha Ocean's share price declined by 5% today, mainly due to local media reports about a potential capital raise of nearly 2 trillion won to 2.5 trillion won. </li>
<li>Although the company has not officially announced a rights offering, we believe the probability of Hanwha Ocean announcing a major rights offering is relatively high in the next 3-6 months. </li>
<li>We estimate this probability range is closer to about 60-70%. The company needs additional capital to improve its highly leveraged balance sheet and to make major investments. </li>
</ul>


Hanwha Ocean's share price declined by 5% today, mainly due to local media reports about a potential capital raise of nearly 2 trillion won to 2.5 trillion won. 
Although the company has not officially announced a rights offering, we believe the probability of Hanwha Ocean announcing a major rights offering is relatively high in the next 3-6 months. 
We estimate this probability range is closer to about 60-70%. The company needs additional capital to improve its highly leveraged balance sheet and to make major investments. 


Hanwha Ocean: Potential Capital Raise of Nearly 2 Trillion Won

<ul>
<li>First, we can take on some risk and build up a short position using SSFs from now, aiming for an aggressively low price (likely Day 1) during the rights trading. </li>
<li>If this approach seems somewhat risky, the second is to wait until the rights trading and, although accepting some sacrifice in the spread, build positions relatively risk-free. </li>
<li>We can also actively build up a long position in the significantly backwardated SSFs from now and, instead, set up an aggressive short on the underlying shares.</li>
</ul>


First, we can take on some risk and build up a short position using SSFs from now, aiming for an aggressively low price (likely Day 1) during the rights trading. 
If this approach seems somewhat risky, the second is to wait until the rights trading and, although accepting some sacrifice in the spread, build positions relatively risk-free. 
We can also actively build up a long position in the significantly backwardated SSFs from now and, instead, set up an aggressive short on the underlying shares.


Trading Angles Using Severely Backwardated Hanwha Ocean's SSFs Ahead of the Rights Trading

South Korea

Samsung Heavy Industries Co., Ltd. manufactures crude oil tankers, container vessels, bulk carriers, cruisers, and passenger ferries.  The Company also produces steel and bridge structures, and material handling equipment.  In addition, Samsung Heavy Industries provides civil engineering, architectural, and plant construction services.

Hyundai Rotem Company Ltd. manufactures railroad equipment and defense vehicles. The Company produces high-speed trains, light rail vehicles, locomotives, and passenger coaches, main battle tanks, armored recovery vehicles, and related defense equipment. Hyundai Rotem operates worldwide.

HD Korea Shipbuilding & Offshore Engineering Co., Ltd. operates as a shipbuilding and offshore company. The Company provides industrial plant engineering, special and naval shipbuilding, marine engine and machinery, industrial machinery and energy services. HD Korea Shipbuilding & Offshore Engineering markets its products worldwide.

HD Korea Shipbuilding & Offshore Engineering (009540 KS)

HD Korea Shipbuilding & Offshore Engineering

Bobcat Company specializes in design, manufacture, marketing and distribution of compact equipment for construction, rental, landscaping, agriculture, grounds maintenance, government, utility, industry and mining.

Hyundai Mipo Dockyard Co., Ltd. is shipbuilders in the sectors of medium-sized conventional ships and specialized vessels. The Company constructs and delivers medium-ranged product carriers, chemical tankers, containerships, LPG carriers, pure car truck carriers and others.

Hyundai Elevator Co., Ltd. (HELCO) manufactures, installs, sells, and services elevators, escalators, moving walkways, automated parking systems, and material handling systems.  The Company also produces screen doors used on platforms in train stations.

People and Technology INC is a company manufacturing in Secondary Battery and Semiconductors.

HSD Engine Co., Ltd. is an integrated engine manufacturer specializing in producing diesel engine for large vessels. The Company provides business in diesel power plant construction and operation, engine parts sales, and engine maintenance and repair services.

STX Heavy Industries Co., Ltd. manufactures diesel engine components for ships. The Company's products include crank shafts, cylinder liners, turbo chargers, and cargo pumps.

Sejin Heavy Industries Co. Ltd., operates a shipbuilding firm.  The Company manufactures ship components such as Deck House and Liquified Petroleum Gas (LPG) Tank.

Sejin Heavy Industries Co Ltd (075580 KS)

Seatrium Ltd offers engineering solutions for the offshore, marine, and energy industries. The Company provides rigs and floaters, repairs and upgrades, offshore platforms, and specialized shipbuilding. Seatrium serves customers worldwide.

Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (Holdings) Limited builds a wide range of ships. The Company produces a wide range of commercial vessels, mini bulk carriers, multi-purpose cargo vessels, containerships, chemical tankers, offshore supply vessels, rescue and salvage vessels, and lifting vessels.

AGCO Corporation manufactures and distributes agricultural equipment throughout the world.  The Company sells a range of agricultural equipment and related replacement parts, including tractors, combines, hay tools, sprayers, and forage equipment.  AGCO markets its products under a variety of brand names, including Massey Ferguson, AGCO, Tye, GLEANER, and Hesston.

Kurita Water Industries Ltd. manufactures, sells, and maintains water treatment equipment and systems.  The Company's products include water purification and waste water treatment equipment as well as soil remediation systems.  Kurita also manufactures and sells chemicals for water treatment related to sanitation, air-conditioning, and construction.

Thermax Ltd manufactures equipment and machinery used to both produce and to conserve energy. The Company operates through a number of divisions, including Boilers, Heat Recovery Steam Generators, Water Treatment Plants and Air Pollution Control Equipment. In addition, Thermax  produces steam and gas turbines and diesel gensets through a number of strategic alliances.

EBARA CORPORATION manufactures pneumatic and hydraulic pumps and related equipment.  The Company's products include fuel, oil, water, and firefighting pumps, as well as steam turbines and boilers.  Ebara Corporation also engineers garbage incinerators, smoke desulfurizers, and other products related to environmental technology.

IHI Corporation manufactures heavy machinery. The Company produces aircraft jet engines, rocket propulsion systems, and ships for military and commercial use. Ishikawajima-Harima also constructs petroleum refineries and nuclear power plants.

Watts Water Technologies, Inc. designs, manufactures, and sells a line of products to the water regulation and control markets.  The Company has manufacturing plants and distribution channels in the United States, Canada, and Europe, as well as a joint venture in The People's Republic of China.

Chart Industries, Inc. is a global manufacturer of equipment used in the production, storage, and end-use of hydrocarbon and industrial gases. The Company's products include vacuum-insulated containment vessels, heat exchangers, cold boxes, and other cryogenic components.

RBC Bearings Incorporated designs, manufactures, and markets bearing products. The Company offers precision plain, roller, cam followers, couplings, collars, locking, tool holders, shafts, pins, rods, tubes, and ball bearings. RBC Bearings serves industrial, aerospace, and defense markets worldwide.

Hanwha Ocean Co., Ltd. operates as a shipbuilding and offshore company. The Company provides floating structure construction, steel wire drying, commercial vessels, specialty vessels, gas carrier, tanker, containership, ro ro, bulk carrier, submarine, warship, auxiliaries, cruise ships, and ferries manufacturing services. Hanwha Ocean also offers onshore plants services.

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Hanwha Ocean (042660 KS)

Hanwha Ocean's June 22 Release of a 1.68% Stake Grabs Local Market Attention

This post investigates Hanwha Ocean's lockup releases in June, particularly the one scheduled for June 22nd involving Korea Eximbank.

Sanghyun Park

End of Mandatory Lock-Up Periods for 45 Companies in Korea in June 2024

We discuss the end of the mandatory lock-up periods for 45 stocks in Korea in June 2024, among which 5 are in KOSPI and 40 are in KOSDAQ.

Douglas Kim

What Should We Do About the Futures Basis Spread Caused by Hanwha Ocean's Rights Offering?

This post delves into the trading approaches we should consider in response to the futures basis spread caused by Hanwha Ocean's rights offering.

Sanghyun Park

Hanwha Ocean: Potential Capital Raise of Nearly 2 Trillion Won

Hanwha Ocean completed the subscription for its 1.5 trillion won rights offering targeting employee stock ownership association and existing...

Douglas Kim

Trading Angles Using Severely Backwardated Hanwha Ocean's SSFs Ahead of the Rights Trading

Considering the significantly high spread based on the 2nd-round pricing while the trading deadline for Hanwha Ocean subscription rights is just a...

Sanghyun Park

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