Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The June 22 lock-up release, involving a 1.68% stake by Eximbank, is drawing attention, with concerns these shares might hit the market immediately, impacting prices significantly.</li>
<li>Eximbank is likely to sell its shares quickly post-lock-up, fueling speculation and potential market reactions, as their focus is on financial stability, not long-term holdings.</li>
<li>The 1.68% block deal could significantly impact Hanwha Ocean's price, similar to last year's 6.4% drop after a smaller block deal announcement by the Korean Financial Services Commission.</li>
</ul>


The June 22 lock-up release, involving a 1.68% stake by Eximbank, is drawing attention, with concerns these shares might hit the market immediately, impacting prices significantly.
Eximbank is likely to sell its shares quickly post-lock-up, fueling speculation and potential market reactions, as their focus is on financial stability, not long-term holdings.
The 1.68% block deal could significantly impact Hanwha Ocean's price, similar to last year's 6.4% drop after a smaller block deal announcement by the Korean Financial Services Commission.


Hanwha Ocean's June 22 Release of a 1.68% Stake Grabs Local Market Attention

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

<ul>
<li>We discuss the end of the mandatory lock-up periods for 45 stocks in Korea in June 2024, among which 5 are in KOSPI and 40 are in KOSDAQ.</li>
<li>These 45 stocks on average could be subject to further selling pressures in June and could underperform relative to the market.</li>
<li><strong>The top three market cap stocks including those of which at least 1% of outstanding shares could be sold in June include Hanwha Ocean, LS Materials, and Komico. </strong></li>
</ul>


We discuss the end of the mandatory lock-up periods for 45 stocks in Korea in June 2024, among which 5 are in KOSPI and 40 are in KOSDAQ.
These 45 stocks on average could be subject to further selling pressures in June and could underperform relative to the market.
The top three market cap stocks including those of which at least 1% of outstanding shares could be sold in June include Hanwha Ocean, LS Materials, and Komico. 


End of Mandatory Lock-Up Periods for 45 Companies in Korea in June 2024

<ul>
<li>The declining appeal of the separator business prompts SK to seek buyers for SKIET through block deals amid financial pressures. The first deal is anticipated despite recent stock price drops.</li>
<li>SK Ecoplant looks to sell its 37.6% stake in SK Oceanplant. Negotiations stall over the former major shareholder's 20% stake, prompting consideration of a block deal.</li>
<li>SK Bioscience, under SK Discovery, faces possible sale amid SK's bio company reshuffle. SK Chemicals may bring SK Biopharm under its wing to help SK Inc focus on semiconductors/batteries.</li>
</ul>


The declining appeal of the separator business prompts SK to seek buyers for SKIET through block deals amid financial pressures. The first deal is anticipated despite recent stock price drops.
SK Ecoplant looks to sell its 37.6% stake in SK Oceanplant. Negotiations stall over the former major shareholder's 20% stake, prompting consideration of a block deal.
SK Bioscience, under SK Discovery, faces possible sale amid SK's bio company reshuffle. SK Chemicals may bring SK Biopharm under its wing to help SK Inc focus on semiconductors/batteries.


Block Deal Prospects Arising from SK Group's Corporate Reshuffle

<ul>
<li>The day the basis spread disappears is this Friday, the 24th of November. This mirrors a comparable pattern observed during Korean Air's rights offering in 2020.</li>
<li>If the spot price does not fall below the futures price of our entry until this Friday, we could potentially be in a profitable range.</li>
<li>There has been a notable pattern where the spread continues to exist until just before the moment when new share selling becomes feasible.</li>
</ul>


The day the basis spread disappears is this Friday, the 24th of November. This mirrors a comparable pattern observed during Korean Air's rights offering in 2020.
If the spot price does not fall below the futures price of our entry until this Friday, we could potentially be in a profitable range.
There has been a notable pattern where the spread continues to exist until just before the moment when new share selling becomes feasible.


What Should We Do About the Futures Basis Spread Caused by Hanwha Ocean's Rights Offering?

<ul>
<li>Hanwha Ocean's share price declined by 5% today, mainly due to local media reports about a potential capital raise of nearly 2 trillion won to 2.5 trillion won. </li>
<li>Although the company has not officially announced a rights offering, we believe the probability of Hanwha Ocean announcing a major rights offering is relatively high in the next 3-6 months. </li>
<li>We estimate this probability range is closer to about 60-70%. The company needs additional capital to improve its highly leveraged balance sheet and to make major investments. </li>
</ul>


Hanwha Ocean's share price declined by 5% today, mainly due to local media reports about a potential capital raise of nearly 2 trillion won to 2.5 trillion won. 
Although the company has not officially announced a rights offering, we believe the probability of Hanwha Ocean announcing a major rights offering is relatively high in the next 3-6 months. 
We estimate this probability range is closer to about 60-70%. The company needs additional capital to improve its highly leveraged balance sheet and to make major investments. 


Hanwha Ocean: Potential Capital Raise of Nearly 2 Trillion Won

South Korea

Hanwha Ocean Co., Ltd. operates as a shipbuilding and offshore company. The Company provides floating structure construction, steel wire drying, commercial vessels, specialty vessels, gas carrier, tanker, containership, ro ro, bulk carrier, submarine, warship, auxiliaries, cruise ships, and ferries manufacturing services. Hanwha Ocean also offers onshore plants services.

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Hanwha Ocean (042660 KS)

Hanwha Ocean's June 22 Release of a 1.68% Stake Grabs Local Market Attention

This post investigates Hanwha Ocean's lockup releases in June, particularly the one scheduled for June 22nd involving Korea Eximbank.

Sanghyun Park

End of Mandatory Lock-Up Periods for 45 Companies in Korea in June 2024

We discuss the end of the mandatory lock-up periods for 45 stocks in Korea in June 2024, among which 5 are in KOSPI and 40 are in KOSDAQ.

Douglas Kim

Block Deal Prospects Arising from SK Group's Corporate Reshuffle

SK Group seems to have chosen a block deal of SK Innovation's stake in SKIET as the first step to improve SK On's financial structure. SK...

Sanghyun Park

What Should We Do About the Futures Basis Spread Caused by Hanwha Ocean's Rights Offering?

This post delves into the trading approaches we should consider in response to the futures basis spread caused by Hanwha Ocean's rights offering.

Sanghyun Park

Hanwha Ocean: Potential Capital Raise of Nearly 2 Trillion Won

Hanwha Ocean completed the subscription for its 1.5 trillion won rights offering targeting employee stock ownership association and existing...

Douglas Kim

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