Technical Analysis / Chartered Market Technician, The Markets Academy

David Coloretti, CMT

Technical Analysis / Chartered Market Technician

The Markets Academy

TMA implements 2 strategies. 1) Tactical ... Trend Sustainability Score (TSS) allows TMA to identify exhaustion / reversal points in interim trends by utilising our proprietary analysis of ST momentum indicators. 2) Medium Term ... our 3 Pillars approach to technical analysis allows TMA to determine high probability medium term outcomes in markets.

Technical Analysis

Agricultural Bank Of China / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.</li>
<li>The LT downtrend structure in 1288 HK was simply defined by its 2018/2022 sequence of lower highs and lower lows. This structure was broken last week.  </li>
<li>LT momentum indicators (monthly RSI / MACD) have recently confirmed this bullish LT trend change. The current uptrend appears set to extend towards 3.60/3.90 (+13%-24%) in the coming 2-3 quarters.</li>
</ul>


At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.
The LT downtrend structure in 1288 HK was simply defined by its 2018/2022 sequence of lower highs and lower lows. This structure was broken last week.  
LT momentum indicators (monthly RSI / MACD) have recently confirmed this bullish LT trend change. The current uptrend appears set to extend towards 3.60/3.90 (+13%-24%) in the coming 2-3 quarters.


Agricultural Bank of China Ltd (1288 HK) - Target 13%-24% Uptrend in 2-3 Quarters.

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In my previous insight in Mid-March 2023, we had a look at the potential index changes and the resultant capping flows for the HSCEI Index in June 2023.</li>
<li>Since then, our flow expectations have changed with changes in prices and/or float and total share counts.</li>
<li>Here are our latest flow expectations based on the current prices.</li>
</ul>


In my previous insight in Mid-March 2023, we had a look at the potential index changes and the resultant capping flows for the HSCEI Index in June 2023.
Since then, our flow expectations have changed with changes in prices and/or float and total share counts.
Here are our latest flow expectations based on the current prices.


Quiddity HSCEI Jun 23 Flow Expectations Update: Two Expected Changes, US$608mn One-Way Flow

<ul>
<li>At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.</li>
<li>Since peaking in January 2023, Tencent Holdings Ltd (700 HK) has produced a meaningful ABC correction that is yet to confirm its completion.</li>
<li>We anticipate the correction confirming a MT bottom in the 302/330 range, ahead of a renewed multi-month uptrend. Our bullish multi-month target at 451.95 remains firm. </li>
</ul>


At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.
Since peaking in January 2023, Tencent Holdings Ltd (700 HK) has produced a meaningful ABC correction that is yet to confirm its completion.
We anticipate the correction confirming a MT bottom in the 302/330 range, ahead of a renewed multi-month uptrend. Our bullish multi-month target at 451.95 remains firm. 


Tencent Holdings Ltd (700 HK) - Q2 2023 Correction Presents a MT Buying Opportunity at 302/330

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. 1) Response to key levels. 2) Price action. 3) Momentum confirmation.</li>
<li>Throughout Q4 2022 / Q1 2023 each material turning point has been confirmed by a definitive weekly reversal pattern. Last week produced a definitive bearish weekly reversal pattern. </li>
<li>Long-Term charts imply that MXEF has entered a sustainable multi- quarter uptrend. Last week's bearish weekly confirmation however, confirms risk of a further counter-trend correction in the coming weeks.</li>
</ul>


At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. 1) Response to key levels. 2) Price action. 3) Momentum confirmation.
Throughout Q4 2022 / Q1 2023 each material turning point has been confirmed by a definitive weekly reversal pattern. Last week produced a definitive bearish weekly reversal pattern. 
Long-Term charts imply that MXEF has entered a sustainable multi- quarter uptrend. Last week's bearish weekly confirmation however, confirms risk of a further counter-trend correction in the coming weeks.


MSCI Emerging Markets Index (MXEF): Weekly Close Confirms Bearish Multi-Week Risk

China Mengniu Dairy Co / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. 1) Response to key levels. 2) Price action. 3) Momentum confirmation.</li>
<li>China Mengniu Dairy Co Ltd (2319 HK), ANTA Sports Products Ltd (2020 HK) and Baidu Inc (9888 HK) are all trading at significant discounts to 2023 highs and LT highs.</li>
<li>Today we highlight targeted support levels / buying opportunities in the coming 1-2 days in 2319 HK, 1-3 weeks in 2020 HK and 1-3 months in 9888 HK). </li>
</ul>


At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. 1) Response to key levels. 2) Price action. 3) Momentum confirmation.
China Mengniu Dairy Co Ltd (2319 HK), ANTA Sports Products Ltd (2020 HK) and Baidu Inc (9888 HK) are all trading at significant discounts to 2023 highs and LT highs.
Today we highlight targeted support levels / buying opportunities in the coming 1-2 days in 2319 HK, 1-3 weeks in 2020 HK and 1-3 months in 9888 HK). 


HSCEI Stocks to Buy at a Material Discount - Targeted Buying Levels in 2319 HK / 2020 HK / 9888 HK

China

The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index is a free-float capitalization-weighted index comprised of H-Shares listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and included in the Hang Seng Mainland Composite Index. The base value of this index is 2000 as of Jan 3, 2000. This index replaced the old HSCE index on Oct. 3, 2001.

Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)

Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)

Agricultural Bank of China Ltd (1288 HK) - Target 13%-24% Uptrend in 2-3 Quarters.

30+ years as a technical analyst and a razor sharp focus on momentum confirmation delivered TMA a 75% unleveraged return on our 7 Smartkarma...

David Coloretti, CMT

Quiddity HSCEI Jun 23 Flow Expectations Update: Two Expected Changes, US$608mn One-Way Flow

There seem to be 5 inflow names (including the two expected ADDs) and 47 outflow names (including the two expected DELs). My latest estimate for...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Tencent Holdings Ltd (700 HK) - Q2 2023 Correction Presents a MT Buying Opportunity at 302/330

30+ years as a technical analyst and a razor sharp focus on momentum confirmation delivered TMA a 75% unleveraged return on our 7 Smartkarma...

David Coloretti, CMT

MSCI Emerging Markets Index (MXEF): Weekly Close Confirms Bearish Multi-Week Risk

30+ years as a technical analyst and a razor sharp focus on momentum confirmation delivered TMA a 75% unleveraged return on our 7 Smartkarma...

David Coloretti, CMT

HSCEI Stocks to Buy at a Material Discount - Targeted Buying Levels in 2319 HK / 2020 HK / 9888 HK

30+ years as a technical analyst and a razor sharp focus on momentum confirmation delivered TMA a 75% unleveraged return on our 7 Smartkarma...

David Coloretti, CMT