IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

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Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

Haitong Securities Co Ltd (H) / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The exchange ratio for the merger between <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guotai-junan-securities-co-ltd-5dfaf2c5-76d3-4f34-a77d-118787fd7091" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23752:1" rel="noopener">Guotai Junan Securities (2611 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haitong-securities-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5665:1" rel="noopener">Haitong Securities Co Ltd (H) (6837 HK)</a> is 0.62x. </li>
<li>The merger closing is subject to several effectiveness and implementation conditions. The latest update suggests that the remaining conditions are CSRC and HKEx approvals.</li>
<li>The satisfaction of the remaining conditions is a formality. At the last close and for an end February payment, the gross/annualised spread is 3.2%/26.4%. </li>
</ul>


The exchange ratio for the merger between Guotai Junan Securities (2611 HK) and Haitong Securities Co Ltd (H) (6837 HK) is 0.62x. 
The merger closing is subject to several effectiveness and implementation conditions. The latest update suggests that the remaining conditions are CSRC and HKEx approvals.
The satisfaction of the remaining conditions is a formality. At the last close and for an end February payment, the gross/annualised spread is 3.2%/26.4%. 


Haitong Securities (6837 HK)/GTJA (2611 HK) Merger: The Home Stretch

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>Back on the 9th October, China's leading state-backed brokerages <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guotai-junan-securities-co-ltd-5dfaf2c5-76d3-4f34-a77d-118787fd7091" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23752:1" rel="noopener">Guotai Junan Securities (2611 HK)</a> (GJS) and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haitong-securities-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5665:1" rel="noopener">Haitong Securities (6837 HK)</a> announced a scrip merger, with GJS the surviving entity.</li>
<li>Barring a <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-traditional-chinese-medicine" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:351:1" rel="noopener">China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK)</a>-like obstacle/debacle, this transaction was a wrap. Fortunately, key regulatory approvals (SAMR and SASAC) have been ticked off.</li>
<li>Approval from the Shanghai Stock Exchange was secured overnight. That was a formality. One approval remains - CSRC. Expect that condition to be satisfied shortly. GJS is no longer shortable.</li>
</ul>


Back on the 9th October, China's leading state-backed brokerages Guotai Junan Securities (2611 HK) (GJS) and Haitong Securities (6837 HK) announced a scrip merger, with GJS the surviving entity.
Barring a China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK)-like obstacle/debacle, this transaction was a wrap. Fortunately, key regulatory approvals (SAMR and SASAC) have been ticked off.
Approval from the Shanghai Stock Exchange was secured overnight. That was a formality. One approval remains - CSRC. Expect that condition to be satisfied shortly. GJS is no longer shortable.


GJS/Haitong Merger: One Formality Reg To Go

<ul>
<li>Back in March, the CSRC said it aimed to "form two to three investment banks and institutions with international competitiveness and market leadership by 2035".
</li>
<li>Last week's announced merger between China's leading state-backed brokerages, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guotai-junan-securities-co-ltd-5dfaf2c5-76d3-4f34-a77d-118787fd7091" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23752:1" rel="noopener">Guotai Junan Securities (2611 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haitong-securities-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5665:1" rel="noopener">Haitong (6837 HK)</a>, is a move in that direction. Expect more scrip mergers to follow. </li>
<li>There have also been some media reports that the GJS/Haitong terms disadvantage holders of other Hong Kong broker stocks if potentially acquired in a merger. It's not quite that simple. </li>
</ul>


Back in March, the CSRC said it aimed to "form two to three investment banks and institutions with international competitiveness and market leadership by 2035".

Last week's announced merger between China's leading state-backed brokerages, Guotai Junan Securities (2611 HK) and Haitong (6837 HK), is a move in that direction. Expect more scrip mergers to follow. 
There have also been some media reports that the GJS/Haitong terms disadvantage holders of other Hong Kong broker stocks if potentially acquired in a merger. It's not quite that simple. 


<ul>
<li>A month after China's leading state-backed brokerages, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guotai-junan-securities-co-ltd-5dfaf2c5-76d3-4f34-a77d-118787fd7091" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23752:1" rel="noopener">Guotai Junan Securities (2611 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haitong-securities-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5665:1" rel="noopener">Haitong Securities (H) (6837 HK)</a>, announced an intention to merge, we have a <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2024/1009/2024100900977.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">firm deal</a>. </li>
<li>Via a share swap, each Haitong H share may be exchanged for 0.62 H shares of GJS. A similar ratio is in place for the As. Cash options are afforded</li>
<li>Conditions include GJS and Haitong shareholder approval; plus the usual suspects on the regulatory front. The key risk, as with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-traditional-chinese-medicine" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:351:1" rel="noopener">TCM (570 HK)</a>'s Offer, is one of timing.</li>
</ul>


A month after China's leading state-backed brokerages, Guotai Junan Securities (2611 HK) and Haitong Securities (H) (6837 HK), announced an intention to merge, we have a firm deal. 
Via a share swap, each Haitong H share may be exchanged for 0.62 H shares of GJS. A similar ratio is in place for the As. Cash options are afforded
Conditions include GJS and Haitong shareholder approval; plus the usual suspects on the regulatory front. The key risk, as with TCM (570 HK)'s Offer, is one of timing.


Guotai Junan (2611 HK)/Haitong (6837 HK)'s Merger: A Win For H-Shareholders

<ul>
<li>The gross spreads of large HK merger arb situations have increased since 18 October. The widening spread is due to the unfortunate fallout from the China TCM deal break. </li>
<li>We assess the widening spreads of HK's merger arb situations on several factors. Deal risk of the HK merger arb situations is evaluated by allocating 15 points across each factor.</li>
<li>In descending order, the companies with the lowest deal risk are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haitong-securities-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Haitong Securities Co Ltd (H) (6837 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cpmc-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener">CPMC Holdings (906 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/greatview-aseptic-packaging" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-henlius-biotech-inc" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK)</a>, and Canvest.</li>
</ul>


The gross spreads of large HK merger arb situations have increased since 18 October. The widening spread is due to the unfortunate fallout from the China TCM deal break. 
We assess the widening spreads of HK's merger arb situations on several factors. Deal risk of the HK merger arb situations is evaluated by allocating 15 points across each factor.
In descending order, the companies with the lowest deal risk are Haitong Securities Co Ltd (H) (6837 HK), CPMC Holdings (906 HK), Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468 HK), Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK), and Canvest.


HK Merger Arb: Evaluating the Post China TCM Widening Spreads

China

Haitong Securities Co., Ltd. is a securities firm which acts as a broker, dealer for securities. The Company also provides investment advisory, placing and underwriting, nominee and custodian services.

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Haitong Securities Co Ltd (H) (6837 HK)

Haitong Securities (6837 HK)/GTJA (2611 HK) Merger: The Home Stretch

The latest update notes that CSRC approval has been obtained. Therefore, the remaining condition is HKEx approval, which is a formality. At the...

Arun George

GJS/Haitong Merger: One Formality Reg To Go

Trading at a gross spread of 3.1%. With possible completion next month (by my estimate), that looks attractive. BUT GJS is no longer shortable,...

David Blennerhassett

GJS/Haitong Merger Musings

Some media outlets believe that the GJS/Haitong terms may place holders of other Hong Kong broker stocks at a disadvantage if potentially acquired...

David Blennerhassett

Guotai Junan (2611 HK)/Haitong (6837 HK)'s Merger: A Win For H-Shareholders

Done and done. After bigly moves in both stock, I see the gross/annualised return at 21%/22%, assuming late 3Q25. If you can take down borrow...

David Blennerhassett

HK Merger Arb: Evaluating the Post China TCM Widening Spreads

The gross spreads of large HK merger arb situations have increased since 18 October, the China TCM deal break date. We assess the spreads of HK's...

Arun George

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