Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Chinese restaurant sector could see 15% YoY revenue growth in Q1 2023, as Total Retail Sales of Meals in China rose 16.4% YoY during Jan-Feb 2023.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yum-china-holdings-inc-0533692c-6dae-4014-baa1-ed0b050638f2" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29259:1" rel="noopener">Yum China Holdings Inc (9987 HK)</a>'s 1Q23 OP may reach a record high of $350m, and annual profitability is expected to double as restaurant footfall recovers.</li>
<li>We suggest buying Yum China for potential multiple expansion due to rapid profitability growth.</li>
</ul>


Chinese restaurant sector could see 15% YoY revenue growth in Q1 2023, as Total Retail Sales of Meals in China rose 16.4% YoY during Jan-Feb 2023.

Yum China Holdings Inc (9987 HK)'s 1Q23 OP may reach a record high of $350m, and annual profitability is expected to double as restaurant footfall recovers.
We suggest buying Yum China for potential multiple expansion due to rapid profitability growth.


Yum China: Looking Delicious with Record Profits Expected in 1Q23 and Potential for Further Growth

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Although 5% GDP growth target for 2023 is at the low end of market speculation of 5.5-6%, we think this reflects the government's conservative stance amid post-COVID recovery. </li>
<li>A 0.2pp higher budget deficit and a special purpose bond quota of Rmb3.8trn suggested that government spending will stay as important economic driver.</li>
<li>Consumption is another major stimulus for economic growth, and more supportive measures will be rolled out - we have seen many cities planning to hand out consumption vouchers.</li>
</ul>


Although 5% GDP growth target for 2023 is at the low end of market speculation of 5.5-6%, we think this reflects the government's conservative stance amid post-COVID recovery. 
A 0.2pp higher budget deficit and a special purpose bond quota of Rmb3.8trn suggested that government spending will stay as important economic driver.
Consumption is another major stimulus for economic growth, and more supportive measures will be rolled out - we have seen many cities planning to hand out consumption vouchers.


China NPC: Implications of Government Working Report 2023

Greater China Equity Long/Short Analyst

Eric Chen

<ul>
<li>China catering players have seen strong recovery during the Chinese New Year starting from Jan 22th, amidst a broad-based revival of the service sector as a whole.</li>
<li>For Xiabuxiabu, latest data points suggest significant progress in turnaround and higher visibility into 2023 performance.</li>
<li>We see upside to our financial projection for 2023 and are more confident that Xiabuxiabu is the most attractively-priced to play re-opening in China catering sector. Expect 50% upside.</li>
</ul>


China catering players have seen strong recovery during the Chinese New Year starting from Jan 22th, amidst a broad-based revival of the service sector as a whole.
For Xiabuxiabu, latest data points suggest significant progress in turnaround and higher visibility into 2023 performance.
We see upside to our financial projection for 2023 and are more confident that Xiabuxiabu is the most attractively-priced to play re-opening in China catering sector. Expect 50% upside.


Xiabuxiabu (520 HK): Strong CNY Bodes Well for the Year of 2023

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tao-heung" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2668:1" rel="noopener">Tao Heung (573 HK)</a>, a Chinese cuisine restaurant operator, has lost significant shop-days in 1H22 due to the pandemic. However, this is behind us and 2H22 outlook is better.</li>
<li>The recovery of Hong Kong operations will be supported by further relaxation of social distancing measures while, for mainland China, business has rebounded following removal of lockdowns.   </li>
<li>Its Chairman has upped his stake, signaling a vote of confidence. The stock's valuations are not expensive, but given low turnover, there will be potential share price volatility.</li>
</ul>



Tao Heung (573 HK), a Chinese cuisine restaurant operator, has lost significant shop-days in 1H22 due to the pandemic. However, this is behind us and 2H22 outlook is better.
The recovery of Hong Kong operations will be supported by further relaxation of social distancing measures while, for mainland China, business has rebounded following removal of lockdowns.   
Its Chairman has upped his stake, signaling a vote of confidence. The stock's valuations are not expensive, but given low turnover, there will be potential share price volatility.


Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

<ul>
<li>HK F&amp;B is set to have a reprieve as dine-in services at catering businesses can now remain open from 6 pm-10 pm ( max seating up to 4 people).</li>
<li>We provide a list of 34 names that will benefit from the removal of restrictions ( some with further catalysts down the road as they are exposed to China)</li>
<li>Our favorite pick remains <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taste-gourmet-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27339:1" rel="noopener">Taste Gourmet Group (8371 HK)</a> which we have written about in our insight <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/taste-gourmet-multibagger-reopening-play" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:67297" rel="noopener">Taste Gourmet: Multibagger Reopening Play</a>.</li>
</ul>


HK F&amp;B is set to have a reprieve as dine-in services at catering businesses can now remain open from 6 pm-10 pm ( max seating up to 4 people).
We provide a list of 34 names that will benefit from the removal of restrictions ( some with further catalysts down the road as they are exposed to China)
Our favorite pick remains Taste Gourmet Group (8371 HK) which we have written about in our insight Taste Gourmet: Multibagger Reopening Play.


A Comprehensive List of Hong Kong F&B Names to Play the Reopening

China

Haidilao International Holding Ltd. operates Chinese cuisine restaurant brand focusing on hot pot cuisine. The Company provides hot pots, soup bases, dipping sauces, drinks, prepared food, and other products. Haidilao International Holding opens restaurants in Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea, Japan, and the United States.

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Haidilao International Holding (6862 HK)

Yum China: Looking Delicious with Record Profits Expected in 1Q23 and Potential for Further Growth

Yum China's 1Q23 OP may reach a record high of $350m, and annual profitability is expected to double. Consider buying Yum China for potential...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

China NPC: Implications of Government Working Report 2023

A 0.2pp higher budget deficit and a Rmb3.8trn special purpose bond quota suggested government spending will remain important economic driver. More...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Xiabuxiabu (520 HK): Strong CNY Bodes Well for the Year of 2023

Strong operating data of Xiabuxiabu Group during CNY highlighted not only very favorable industry tailwinds but also significant progress in...

Eric Chen

Tao Heung (573 HK): Bon Appetit

Tao Heung should have a better 2H22 given recovery of Hong Kong operations as consumer spending improves. Also, mainland China market is not...

Osbert Tang, CFA

A Comprehensive List of Hong Kong F&B Names to Play the Reopening

We list 34 names that will benefit from the easing of dine-in restrictions in Hong Kong. Our favorite pick remains Taste Gourmet Group (8371 HK).

Sameer Taneja

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