Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
Couche-Tard execs do the rounds in Tokyo, complaining about not being able to do the rounds. This sounds like they are trying to make themselves sound nice. For now</li>
<li>First the low-balled VTOs for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/advanced-info-service-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:947:1" rel="noopener">AIS (ADVANC TB)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thaicom-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18019:1" rel="noopener">Thaicom (THCOM TB)</a>. Then the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intouch-holdings-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17638:1" rel="noopener">Intouch (INTUCH TB)</a>/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gulf-energy-development-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26038:1" rel="noopener">Gulf Energy (GULF TB)</a> amalgamation. Then, arguably, the next unorthodox development will take place.</li>
<li>Investors buying <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samty-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43711:1" rel="noopener">SAMTY HOLDINGS (187A JP)</a> in size may withhold shares, either they'll try to become the fulcrum investor to get into the Bidco OR they will try for a bump.</li>
</ul>



Couche-Tard execs do the rounds in Tokyo, complaining about not being able to do the rounds. This sounds like they are trying to make themselves sound nice. For now
First the low-balled VTOs for AIS (ADVANC TB) and Thaicom (THCOM TB). Then the Intouch (INTUCH TB)/Gulf Energy (GULF TB) amalgamation. Then, arguably, the next unorthodox development will take place.
Investors buying SAMTY HOLDINGS (187A JP) in size may withhold shares, either they'll try to become the fulcrum investor to get into the Bidco OR they will try for a bump.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Seven & I/Couche-Tard, Intouch, SAMTY, Korea Zinc/Young Poong

Travis Lundy

<ul>
<li>Huge volumes traded on the mainland, Southbound volumes dropped, AH Premia contracted a little bit, but not much. Things are starting to stabilise.</li>
<li>Average AH pairwise volatility is super high. Intracorrelation of spreads quite low. Lots of room to market-make wide spreads/high premia. High premia may continue to contract on speculation.</li>
<li>Continuing different onshore and offshore opinion regarding the nature and vibe of Chinese stimulus will continue to lead to interesting dispersion. Identify the trend, then market make around it.</li>
</ul>


Huge volumes traded on the mainland, Southbound volumes dropped, AH Premia contracted a little bit, but not much. Things are starting to stabilise.
Average AH pairwise volatility is super high. Intracorrelation of spreads quite low. Lots of room to market-make wide spreads/high premia. High premia may continue to contract on speculation.
Continuing different onshore and offshore opinion regarding the nature and vibe of Chinese stimulus will continue to lead to interesting dispersion. Identify the trend, then market make around it.


A/H Premium Tracker (To 18 Oct 2024): AH Premia Drop Sharply; High Premia May Contract More

<ul>
<li>I  tally 44 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li>One new deals discussed this week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bossini-international-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4085:1" rel="noopener">Bossini International (592 HK)</a> low-balled scrip Offer from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/viva-goods-company-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15864:1" rel="noopener">Viva Goods (933 HK)</a>. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-capital-grand-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18241:1" rel="noopener">Beijing Capital Grand (1329 HK)</a> also suspended due to the Takeovers code. </li>
<li>Key updates took place on: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guotai-junan-securities-co-ltd-5dfaf2c5-76d3-4f34-a77d-118787fd7091" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23752:1" rel="noopener">GJS (2611 HK)</a>/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haitong-securities-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:166:1" rel="noopener">Haitong Securities (600837 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fuji-soft-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17504:1" rel="noopener">Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hotel-property-investments" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9850:1" rel="noopener">Hotel Property Investments (HPI AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-traditional-chinese-medicine" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:351:1" rel="noopener">TCM (570 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dyna-mac-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16153:1" rel="noopener">Dyna Mac Holdings (DMHL SP)</a> </li>
</ul>


I  tally 44 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
One new deals discussed this week: Bossini International (592 HK) low-balled scrip Offer from Viva Goods (933 HK). Beijing Capital Grand (1329 HK) also suspended due to the Takeovers code. 
Key updates took place on: GJS (2611 HK)/Haitong Securities (600837 CH), Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP), Hotel Property Investments (HPI AU), TCM (570 HK) and Dyna Mac Holdings (DMHL SP) 


(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: GJS/Haitong, Fuji Soft, Bossini, Dyna-Mac, Beijing Capital Grand, TCM

Hotel Property Investments / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Back on the 9th September, pub play <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hotel-property-investments" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9850:1" rel="noopener">Hotel Property Investments (HPI AU)</a> announced - and summarily <a href="https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20240909/pdf/067ntttrhq85j9.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">rejected</a> - a A$3.65/share cash Offer from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/charter-hall-retail-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11375:1" rel="noopener">Charter Hall Retail Reit (CQR AU)</a>.</li>
<li>Charter Hall has now <a href="https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20241018/pdf/0698jwgh9vfx9k.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">increased terms to A$3.85/share</a> (best &amp; final), a 17.7% premium to undisturbed. The Offer remains conditional on an 50.1% minimum acceptance condition. Charter Hall holds 14.7%. </li>
<li>
HPI's <a href="https://www.sharecafe.com.au/2024/10/18/charter-hall-ups-the-ante-with-final-hpi-bid/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reported</a> response? "While Charter Hall’s improved offer provides an attractive exit for shareholders, we remain committed to evaluating all options that deliver the best long-term value."</li>
</ul>


Back on the 9th September, pub play Hotel Property Investments (HPI AU) announced - and summarily rejected - a A$3.65/share cash Offer from Charter Hall Retail Reit (CQR AU).
Charter Hall has now increased terms to A$3.85/share (best &amp; final), a 17.7% premium to undisturbed. The Offer remains conditional on an 50.1% minimum acceptance condition. Charter Hall holds 14.7%. 

HPI's reported response? "While Charter Hall’s improved offer provides an attractive exit for shareholders, we remain committed to evaluating all options that deliver the best long-term value."


HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Although the H-share securities companies have retreated significantly from their peaks, there are still "fats" in their share prices in the near term, relative to the market turnover.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/citic-securities-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:463:1" rel="noopener">Citic Securities (H) (6030 HK)</a> looks vulnerable given its high valuations, low H-A share discount, limited correction from its peak, and significant rebound from the trough.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-merchants-securities-co-4f5d644c-0051-426f-9706-eaa74b0ba280" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22738:1" rel="noopener">China Merchants Securities (6099 HK)</a> appears exposed though valuations are not high. It has the best YTD performance and rebound from the trough, and its H-A share discount is light.   </li>
</ul>


Although the H-share securities companies have retreated significantly from their peaks, there are still "fats" in their share prices in the near term, relative to the market turnover.

Citic Securities (H) (6030 HK) looks vulnerable given its high valuations, low H-A share discount, limited correction from its peak, and significant rebound from the trough.

China Merchants Securities (6099 HK) appears exposed though valuations are not high. It has the best YTD performance and rebound from the trough, and its H-A share discount is light.   


China Strategy: Screening the H-Share Securities Companies

China

Guotai Junan Securities Co.,Ltd. provides financial services. The Company offers corporate finance, fixed income securities, asset management, risk management, and other services. Guotai Junan Securities Company serves clients throughout China.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Guotai Junan Securities (2611 HK)

Last Week in Event SPACE: Seven & I/Couche-Tard, Intouch, SAMTY, Korea Zinc/Young Poong

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

A/H Premium Tracker (To 18 Oct 2024): AH Premia Drop Sharply; High Premia May Contract More

AH Pair Premia start to settle down as an average but there is a lot of dispersion still across names and sectors. It's a great time to have an...

Travis Lundy

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: GJS/Haitong, Fuji Soft, Bossini, Dyna-Mac, Beijing Capital Grand, TCM

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Charter Hall Bumps With Final HPI Bid

I expected Charter Hall to nudge the terms higher to secure board support. But I don't believe a 5% bump will cut it. If an arbitrageur, I'd be...

David Blennerhassett

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Last Week in Event SPACE: Seven & I/Couche-Tard, Intouch, SAMTY, Korea Zinc/Young Poong

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

A/H Premium Tracker (To 18 Oct 2024): AH Premia Drop Sharply; High Premia May Contract More

AH Pair Premia start to settle down as an average but there is a lot of dispersion still across names and sectors. It's a great time to have an...

Travis Lundy

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: GJS/Haitong, Fuji Soft, Bossini, Dyna-Mac, Beijing Capital Grand, TCM

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Charter Hall Bumps With Final HPI Bid

I expected Charter Hall to nudge the terms higher to secure board support. But I don't believe a 5% bump will cut it. If an arbitrageur, I'd be...

David Blennerhassett

China Strategy: Screening the H-Share Securities Companies

​H-share securities companies still have room for corrections despite recent retreats, with Citic Securities and China Merchants Securities looking...

Osbert Tang, CFA

H-share securities companies still have room for corrections despite recent retreats, with Citic Securities and China Merchants Securities looking...