Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We are seeing signs that suggest this pullback may have run its course, as several global market indexes and Sectors appear to be making a higher low near logical support.</li>
<li>This includes the S&amp;P 500, Russell 2000, MSCI ACWI (local currency), TOPIX/TOPIX Small/Nikkei 225, MSCI ACWI Technology (IXN-US), Consumer Discretionary (RXI-US), Financials (IXG-US), Industrials and (EXI-US) -- add exposure.</li>
<li>While our overall outlook remains neutral, we continue to see a plethora of attractive buying opportunities in the new leaders.</li>
</ul>


We are seeing signs that suggest this pullback may have run its course, as several global market indexes and Sectors appear to be making a higher low near logical support.
This includes the S&amp;P 500, Russell 2000, MSCI ACWI (local currency), TOPIX/TOPIX Small/Nikkei 225, MSCI ACWI Technology (IXN-US), Consumer Discretionary (RXI-US), Financials (IXG-US), Industrials and (EXI-US) -- add exposure.
While our overall outlook remains neutral, we continue to see a plethora of attractive buying opportunities in the new leaders.


Pullback Complete?; Commodities Heading Lower; Buying Growth/Cyclicals & A Few Utilities

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intouch-holdings-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17638:1" rel="noopener">Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB)</a>'s discount to NAV is back to levels last seen in November 2021, where euphoric trading was rolling over subsequent to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gulf-energy-development-public-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26038:1" rel="noopener">Gulf Energy Development (GULF TB)</a>'s VTO.</li>
<li>Intouch's net cash increased in the 2Q22 and its look-through interim dividend payout is the highest in at least five years.</li>
<li>I'd be shorting Intouch here and buying <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/advanced-info-service-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:947:1" rel="noopener">Advanced Info Service (ADVANC TB)</a>, with a view to mean reversion of ~25% NAV discount. </li>
</ul>



Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB)'s discount to NAV is back to levels last seen in November 2021, where euphoric trading was rolling over subsequent to Gulf Energy Development (GULF TB)'s VTO.
Intouch's net cash increased in the 2Q22 and its look-through interim dividend payout is the highest in at least five years.
I'd be shorting Intouch here and buying Advanced Info Service (ADVANC TB), with a view to mean reversion of ~25% NAV discount. 


Intouch's NAV Discount Not Supported By Higher Look-Through Payout

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Thai Life Insurance  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Thai Life Insurance (TLI) raised around US$975m in its Thailand IPO. Cornerstone investors, including GIC, took up around 54% of the deal.</li>
<li>Thai Life Insurance is one of the largest life insurance companies in Thailand, third by assets. As of Mar 2022, it had 64,000 insurance agents.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about allocation and the trading dynamics</li>
</ul>


Thai Life Insurance (TLI) raised around US$975m in its Thailand IPO. Cornerstone investors, including GIC, took up around 54% of the deal.
Thai Life Insurance is one of the largest life insurance companies in Thailand, third by assets. As of Mar 2022, it had 64,000 insurance agents.
In this note, we talk about allocation and the trading dynamics


Thai Life Insurance IPO Trading - One for Domestics and Cornerstones

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/siam-commercial-bank-scb-x" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:214:1" rel="noopener">SCB X</a> has been a slightly disappointing performer since its restructuring under a new holding company to allow for a reallocation of capital towards growing tech areas.</li>
<li>A key overhang has been its sizable planned investment into leading Thai crypto exchange BitKub but the due diligence for this has been extended signalling a potential cancellation. </li>
<li>The bank's core business is recovering with loan growth recovering and credit costs coming down plus strong growth in digital banking reducing costs. Valuations are attractive on 0.7x FY22E PBV.</li>
</ul>



SCB X has been a slightly disappointing performer since its restructuring under a new holding company to allow for a reallocation of capital towards growing tech areas.
A key overhang has been its sizable planned investment into leading Thai crypto exchange BitKub but the due diligence for this has been extended signalling a potential cancellation. 
The bank's core business is recovering with loan growth recovering and credit costs coming down plus strong growth in digital banking reducing costs. Valuations are attractive on 0.7x FY22E PBV.


SCB X (SCB TB) - The Song Remains the Same

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/advanced-info-service-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:947:1" rel="noopener">Advanced Info Service (ADVANC TB)</a> intends to acquire <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jasmine-international-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:949:1" rel="noopener">Jasmine International PCL (JAS TB)</a> broadband ops (TTTBB) plus a 19% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jasmine-broadband-internet-infrastructure-fund" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:86:1" rel="noopener">Jasmine Broadband Internet Infrastructure Fund (JASIF TB)</a> from JAS.</li>
<li>AIS will pay Bt 19.5bn for TTTBB and Bt 12.9bn for 19% of JASIF, or Bt 32.4bn (US$908mn) all in. The acquisition will be funded by debt.</li>
<li>The transactions, which are subject to NBTC approval, follow the ongoing regulatory process for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/true-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8:1" rel="noopener">True (TRUE TB)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/total-access-communication" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:948:1" rel="noopener">Total Access Communication (DTAC TB)</a>'s merger.  True is Thailand's largest broadband player. </li>
</ul>



Advanced Info Service (ADVANC TB) intends to acquire Jasmine International PCL (JAS TB) broadband ops (TTTBB) plus a 19% stake in Jasmine Broadband Internet Infrastructure Fund (JASIF TB) from JAS.
AIS will pay Bt 19.5bn for TTTBB and Bt 12.9bn for 19% of JASIF, or Bt 32.4bn (US$908mn) all in. The acquisition will be funded by debt.
The transactions, which are subject to NBTC approval, follow the ongoing regulatory process for True (TRUE TB) / Total Access Communication (DTAC TB)'s merger.  True is Thailand's largest broadband player. 


Jasmine Acquisition To Expand Advanced's Broadband Footprint

Thailand

Gulf Energy Development Public Company Limited produces and sells electricity and steam. The Company manages a portfolio of gas-fired and renewable power projects, as well as supplies steam and chilled water. Gulf Energy Development serves customers in Thailand.

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Gulf Energy Development (GULF TB)

Pullback Complete?; Commodities Heading Lower; Buying Growth/Cyclicals & A Few Utilities

Signs suggest this pullback may have run its course, as several global market indexes & Sectors appear to be making a higher low near logical...

Vermilion Research

Intouch's NAV Discount Not Supported By Higher Look-Through Payout

I'd be shorting Intouch here and buying AIS. I think a more reasonable discount to NAV is >20%. Gulf's holding remains problematic though, and...

David Blennerhassett

Thai Life Insurance IPO Trading - One for Domestics and Cornerstones

Thai Life Insurance (TLI) raised around US$975m in its Thailand IPO. Cornerstone investors, including GIC, took up around 54% of the deal. In this...

Sumeet Singh

SCB X (SCB TB) - The Song Remains the Same

SCB X continues its restructuring under a new holding company to allow for a reallocation of capital towards growth tech areas and we believe this...

Angus Mackintosh

Jasmine Acquisition To Expand Advanced's Broadband Footprint

The spotlight has been on DTAC/True for most of this year. AIS is Thailand's largest mobile phone operator, and is looking to boost its subscriber...

David Blennerhassett

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