Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We maintain an Outperform rating, with a 12M FV of Bt124.00, based on the earnings yield method and a required return of 15.6%.</li><li>The valuation metrics suggest that the stock has upside of around 9% from the current price, while the long-term performance is expected to grow at a moderate pace.</li><li>The tactical risk remains neutral.</li></ul>

We maintain an Outperform rating, with a 12M FV of Bt124.00, based on the earnings yield method and a required return of 15.6%.The valuation metrics suggest that the stock has upside of around 9% from the current price, while the long-term performance is expected to grow at a moderate pace.The tactical risk remains neutral.

Scb X - Upbeat 3Q24 Earnings; Lower Provisioning

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We hold a slightly positive view on this transaction as it mitigates the risk of SCB having to recognize an asset impairment.
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SCB has already recorded approximately Bt800mn in expenses related to discontinuing Robinhood services, leaving PPV with a remaining book value of around Bt1bn.
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Our 2024E earnings forecast has incorporated the assumption of a complete write-off of the PPV asset, with an initial settlement value of Bt400mn.
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We hold a slightly positive view on this transaction as it mitigates the risk of SCB having to recognize an asset impairment.


SCB has already recorded approximately Bt800mn in expenses related to discontinuing Robinhood services, leaving PPV with a remaining book value of around Bt1bn.


Our 2024E earnings forecast has incorporated the assumption of a complete write-off of the PPV asset, with an initial settlement value of Bt400mn.



SCB X Plc. - SCB Selling All of Its Shares in Purple Ventures Co., Ltd.

<ul>
<li>We maintain an Outperform rating with a 12M fair value of Bt117.44, based on the earnings yield and a required return of 11.7%.</li>
<li>The valuation metrics suggest that the share price implies upside compared to the fair value of 15.7%.</li>
<li>Meanwhile, the tactical risk is very limited, and the long-term earnings prospects are neutral.</li>
</ul>


We maintain an Outperform rating with a 12M fair value of Bt117.44, based on the earnings yield and a required return of 11.7%.
The valuation metrics suggest that the share price implies upside compared to the fair value of 15.7%.
Meanwhile, the tactical risk is very limited, and the long-term earnings prospects are neutral.


SCB X - Downbeat Earnings on Higher Provision

<ul><li>We initiate coverage on SCB with an Outperform rating, with a 12M FV of Bt117.44, based on the earnings yield and a required return of 11.7%.</li><li>The valuation metrics suggest that the share price implies upside of 10.8% vs. the fair value.</li><li>Loan quality control and the expansion of auto title loans should boost the earnings growth for SCB, reaching a 6.0% CAGR in 2024-26E. </li></ul>

We initiate coverage on SCB with an Outperform rating, with a 12M FV of Bt117.44, based on the earnings yield and a required return of 11.7%.The valuation metrics suggest that the share price implies upside of 10.8% vs. the fair value.Loan quality control and the expansion of auto title loans should boost the earnings growth for SCB, reaching a 6.0% CAGR in 2024-26E. 

SCB - High Dividends the Highlight Amid Slow Domestic Loan Growth

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The latest MPC meeting signaled that there is no urgency to cut the policy interest rate, despite pressures from the government or the downward revision of the inflation forecasts for 2024-25E to +0.4% and +1.1% (vs. the previous forecasts of +0.7% and +1.2%), which are only slightly above the lower bound of the MPC's inflation target range of 1-3%.</li><li>We anticipate that a rate cut would only occur if external risks escalate, such as a potential tax hike policy under a Trump 2.0 administration.</li><li>We maintain our recommendation for stocks that benefit from stable interest rates, including the banking and insurance sectors, with the top picks being SCB, TTB, TISCO, and TLI.</li></ul>

The latest MPC meeting signaled that there is no urgency to cut the policy interest rate, despite pressures from the government or the downward revision of the inflation forecasts for 2024-25E to +0.4% and +1.1% (vs. the previous forecasts of +0.7% and +1.2%), which are only slightly above the lower bound of the MPC's inflation target range of 1-3%.We anticipate that a rate cut would only occur if external risks escalate, such as a potential tax hike policy under a Trump 2.0 administration.We maintain our recommendation for stocks that benefit from stable interest rates, including the banking and insurance sectors, with the top picks being SCB, TTB, TISCO, and TLI.

Economic Update: Policy Interest Rate Maintained at 2.25% - DECEMBER 19, 2024

Thailand

SCB X Public Company Limited provides banking services. The Bank offers accounts, loans, cards, deposits, insurance, investment, payment, digital banking, and other related services. SCB X serves customers worldwide.

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Siam Commercial Bank (SCB TB)

Scb X - Upbeat 3Q24 Earnings; Lower Provisioning

We maintain an Outperform rating, with a 12M FV of Bt124.00, based on the earnings yield method and a required return of 15.6%.

Krungthai XSpring

SCB X Plc. - SCB Selling All of Its Shares in Purple Ventures Co., Ltd.

Our 2024E earnings forecast has incorporated the assumption of a complete write-off of the PPV asset, with an initial settlement value of Bt400mn.

Krungthai XSpring

SCB X - Downbeat Earnings on Higher Provision

We maintain an Outperform rating with a 12M fair value of Bt117.44, based on the earnings yield and a required return of 11.7%.

Krungthai XSpring

SCB - High Dividends the Highlight Amid Slow Domestic Loan Growth

We initiate coverage on SCB with an Outperform rating, with a 12M FV of Bt117.44, based on the earnings yield and a required return of 11.7%.

Krungthai XSpring

Economic Update: Policy Interest Rate Maintained at 2.25% - DECEMBER 19, 2024

We maintain our recommendation for stocks that benefit from stable interest rates, including the banking and insurance sectors, with the top picks...

Krungthai XSpring

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