Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In April 2021, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gulf-energy-development-public-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26038:1" rel="noopener">Gulf Energy (GULF TB)</a>'s surprising VTO for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intouch-holdings-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17638:1" rel="noopener">Intouch (INTUCH TB)</a> was conditional, inter alia, on a waiver NOT to make a downstream offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thaicom-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18019:1" rel="noopener">Thaicom (THCOM TB)</a>.</li>
<li>Now Gulf has announced an intention to acquire Intouch's 41.13% stake in Thaicom for Bt 9.92/share, a 19.3% discount last close, the completion of which triggers an MTO.</li>
<li>The acquisition of shares from Intouch requires approval from Intouch shareholders. Gulf, with 46.44% of shares out, is required to abstain. </li>
</ul>


In April 2021, Gulf Energy (GULF TB)'s surprising VTO for Intouch (INTUCH TB) was conditional, inter alia, on a waiver NOT to make a downstream offer for Thaicom (THCOM TB).
Now Gulf has announced an intention to acquire Intouch's 41.13% stake in Thaicom for Bt 9.92/share, a 19.3% discount last close, the completion of which triggers an MTO.
The acquisition of shares from Intouch requires approval from Intouch shareholders. Gulf, with 46.44% of shares out, is required to abstain. 


Singtel Holds The Key To Gulf Energy's Takeunder For Thaicom

Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities, Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Research

Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities

Leading, full-service investment firm in Thailand

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Securities is a well known securities company with 40 years experience in the industry, serving more than 60,000 clients. We offer one - stop service providing full range of financial products and services including extensive Brokerage, Proprietary Trading (Equities and Bonds), Advisory Services, Structured Products.

Moreover, our new research team tailored for institutional clients to focus on mid to small cap of Thai equities and trading strategies. Our services offered to our premium clients also include arrangement of company or site visits to with the managements of Thai listed companies.

Note: Effective on 1 March 2022, Country Group Securities PCL changed its name to Pi Securities

Equity Bottom-Up

Gulf Energy Development  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We reiterate our BUY call with a TP of Bt62.0. We maintain our positive outlook on GULF’s strong EPS growth of 31% in 2023,underpinned by 1.5GWe projects expected to recognize </li>
<li>Weak earnings expected in 3Q22 We expect GULF to post a net profit of Bt1.1bn (-30% YoY, -27% QoQ) in 3Q22. The QoQ and YoY drop in the net profit</li>
<li>GULF's recurring profit is also expected to drop 25% QoQ to Bt2.4bn (+2% YoY), caused by weak operations from IPP powerplants on account of weak electricity dispatch as EGAT prioritized</li>
</ul>


We reiterate our BUY call with a TP of Bt62.0. We maintain our positive outlook on GULF’s strong EPS growth of 31% in 2023,underpinned by 1.5GWe projects expected to recognize 
Weak earnings expected in 3Q22 We expect GULF to post a net profit of Bt1.1bn (-30% YoY, -27% QoQ) in 3Q22. The QoQ and YoY drop in the net profit
GULF's recurring profit is also expected to drop 25% QoQ to Bt2.4bn (+2% YoY), caused by weak operations from IPP powerplants on account of weak electricity dispatch as EGAT prioritized


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jasmine-international-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:949:1" rel="noopener">Jasmine International PCL (JAS TB)</a>'s shareholders approved <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/advanced-info-service-pcl-ca1a971f-2f70-4565-b1fd-dda5b533acd3" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27653:1" rel="noopener">Advanced Info Service (ADVANC TB)</a> acquiring its subsidiary Triple T Broadband, and to buy 19% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jasmine-broadband-internet-infrastructure-fund" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:86:1" rel="noopener">Jasmine Broadband (JASIF TB)</a>.</li>
<li>The deal, involving a total outlay of Bt32.4bn, remains subject to approval from JASIF unitholders and NBTC. AIS' current market cap is Bt574bn.</li>
<li>Separately, the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/total-access-communication" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:948:1" rel="noopener">DTAC</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/true-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8:1" rel="noopener">True</a> merger looks set to become a reality as it, ironically, does not require NBTC approval. A merger would create a duopoly and ultimately benefit AIS.</li>
</ul>



Jasmine International PCL (JAS TB)'s shareholders approved Advanced Info Service (ADVANC TB) acquiring its subsidiary Triple T Broadband, and to buy 19% of Jasmine Broadband (JASIF TB).
The deal, involving a total outlay of Bt32.4bn, remains subject to approval from JASIF unitholders and NBTC. AIS' current market cap is Bt574bn.
Separately, the DTAC / True merger looks set to become a reality as it, ironically, does not require NBTC approval. A merger would create a duopoly and ultimately benefit AIS.


Intouch: AIS' Expanding Broadband And Expected Mobile Duopoly

<ul>
<li>We maintain the BUY call while raising the TP by 7%to Bt62.0 on the back of SOTP adjustment to factor in acquisition of new 588MWe Jackson Generation power project (US) </li>
<li>49% holding in the US project will add Bt4 in SOTP The company informs the SET about acquiring 49% stake in 1,200 MW (588MWe) Gas power plant “Jackson Generation”</li>
<li>The company supplies electricity to the PJM (Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and Maryland) which is a regional transmission organization (RTO) that coordinates the movement of wholesale electricity in the US</li>
</ul>


We maintain the BUY call while raising the TP by 7%to Bt62.0 on the back of SOTP adjustment to factor in acquisition of new 588MWe Jackson Generation power project (US) 
49% holding in the US project will add Bt4 in SOTP The company informs the SET about acquiring 49% stake in 1,200 MW (588MWe) Gas power plant “Jackson Generation”
The company supplies electricity to the PJM (Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and Maryland) which is a regional transmission organization (RTO) that coordinates the movement of wholesale electricity in the US


Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We are seeing signs that suggest this pullback may have run its course, as several global market indexes and Sectors appear to be making a higher low near logical support.</li>
<li>This includes the S&amp;P 500, Russell 2000, MSCI ACWI (local currency), TOPIX/TOPIX Small/Nikkei 225, MSCI ACWI Technology (IXN-US), Consumer Discretionary (RXI-US), Financials (IXG-US), Industrials and (EXI-US) -- add exposure.</li>
<li>While our overall outlook remains neutral, we continue to see a plethora of attractive buying opportunities in the new leaders.</li>
</ul>


We are seeing signs that suggest this pullback may have run its course, as several global market indexes and Sectors appear to be making a higher low near logical support.
This includes the S&amp;P 500, Russell 2000, MSCI ACWI (local currency), TOPIX/TOPIX Small/Nikkei 225, MSCI ACWI Technology (IXN-US), Consumer Discretionary (RXI-US), Financials (IXG-US), Industrials and (EXI-US) -- add exposure.
While our overall outlook remains neutral, we continue to see a plethora of attractive buying opportunities in the new leaders.


Pullback Complete?; Commodities Heading Lower; Buying Growth/Cyclicals & A Few Utilities

Thailand

Gulf Energy Development Public Company Limited produces and sells electricity and steam. The Company manages a portfolio of gas-fired and renewable power projects, as well as supplies steam and chilled water. Gulf Energy Development serves customers in Thailand.

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Gulf Energy Development (GULF TB)

Singtel Holds The Key To Gulf Energy's Takeunder For Thaicom

This is a low-balled Offer from Gulf, Singtel can scupper the transaction. But would they want to be immersed in the politics overseeing the...

David Blennerhassett

GULF : Weak 3Q22 Earnings Expected

We reiterate our BUY call with a TP of Bt62.0. We maintain our positive outlook on GULF’s strong EPS growth of 31% in 2023, underpinned by 1.5GWe...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Intouch: AIS' Expanding Broadband And Expected Mobile Duopoly

I'd still be shorting Intouch here and buying Advanced Info. I believe a more reasonable discount to NAV target is >20%.

David Blennerhassett

GULF : Expansion in the US Plant

We maintain the BUY call while raising the TP by 7% to Bt62.0 on the back of SOTP adjustment to factor in acquisition of new 588MWe Jackson...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pullback Complete?; Commodities Heading Lower; Buying Growth/Cyclicals & A Few Utilities

Signs suggest this pullback may have run its course, as several global market indexes & Sectors appear to be making a higher low near logical...

Vermilion Research

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