IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/monde-nissin-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32188:1" rel="noopener">Monde Nissin Corp (0191881D PM)</a> is a leading food manufacturer in the Philippines with flagship brands such as Lucky Me! for instant noodles and Quorn for meat alternative products. Monde Nissin ranked first in retail sales value in the Philippines with its instant noodles, biscuits, oyster sauce and yoghurt drinks in 2020, according to Nielsen. Monde Nissin will launch pre-marketing for an IPO to raise up to PHP63 billion ($1.3 billion) in April, according to press reports. <div class="content-highlight">Monde Nissin is a play on the growing demand for consumer staples in the Philippines and Thailand and the healthy food category on a global scale. Monde Nissin’s financial track record shows it has been able to combine modest top-line growth with improving margins and cash generation. Overall, we believe that Monde Nissin’s fundamentals are attractive.</div>

Monde Nissin Corp (0191881D PM) is a leading food manufacturer in the Philippines with flagship brands such as Lucky Me! for instant noodles and Quorn for meat alternative products. Monde Nissin ranked first in retail sales value in the Philippines with its instant noodles, biscuits, oyster sauce and yoghurt drinks in 2020, according to Nielsen. Monde Nissin will launch pre-marketing for an IPO to raise up to PHP63 billion ($1.3 billion) in April, according to press reports. Monde Nissin is a play on the growing demand for consumer staples in the Philippines and Thailand and the healthy food category on a global scale. Monde Nissin’s financial track record shows it has been able to combine modest top-line growth with improving margins and cash generation. Overall, we believe that Monde Nissin’s fundamentals are attractive.

Monde Nissin IPO Initiation: Instant Karma

Leading International Investment Research, Edison Investment Research

Edison Investment Research

Leading International Investment Research

Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisors and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting.

Equity Bottom-Up

Greggs’ Q320 trading update shows a recovery in sales in line with our expectations. There has been good progress: getting all infrastructure up and running, and adapting to the new environment, both in store (including the Click and Collect service) and in generating strong incremental sales from the new Delivery offer. We retain our existing forecasts. The uncertainty about the recovery in sales leaves the EV/sales multiple for FY21e of 1.1x lower than recent multiples.

Greggs’ Q320 trading update shows a recovery in sales in line with our expectations. There has been good progress: getting all infrastructure up and running, and adapting to the new environment, both in store (including the Click and Collect service) and in generating strong incremental sales from the new Delivery offer. We retain our existing forecasts. The uncertainty about the recovery in sales leaves the EV/sales multiple for FY21e of 1.1x lower than recent multiples.

Greggs’ interim results were heavily affected by the estate closure for the majority of Q220, due to COVID-19. The key takeaways are that operating cash burn during lockdown was in line with management expectations, and current trading, albeit with limited data, indicates gradual weekly progress in revenue, described by management as encouraging. We assume recovery through H121e, before stabilising at a revenue run-rate equivalent to 90% of the level in FY19. The resulting EV/sales multiple of 1.2x for FY21e, is in line with recent multiples. It reflects lower estimated revenue in that year and uncertainty about the rate of recovery.

Greggs’ interim results were heavily affected by the estate closure for the majority of Q220, due to COVID-19. The key takeaways are that operating cash burn during lockdown was in line with management expectations, and current trading, albeit with limited data, indicates gradual weekly progress in revenue, described by management as encouraging. We assume recovery through H121e, before stabilising at a revenue run-rate equivalent to 90% of the level in FY19. The resulting EV/sales multiple of 1.2x for FY21e, is in line with recent multiples. It reflects lower estimated revenue in that year and uncertainty about the rate of recovery.


COVID-19 will have an uncertain but important impact on Greggs' profitability in FY20. The profit and cash flow impact of lost sales will be mitigated by internal initiatives and government support on operating costs (rates and employees). The strong balance sheet means that Greggs is well placed for tougher times. Our forecasts are now under review and we are planning to publish a note to update them shortly.

COVID-19 will have an uncertain but important impact on Greggs' profitability in FY20. The profit and cash flow impact of lost sales will be mitigated by internal initiatives and government support on operating costs (rates and employees). The strong balance sheet means that Greggs is well placed for tougher times. Our forecasts are now under review and we are planning to publish a note to update them shortly.


Greggs - Protecting employees and customers

Greggs’ FY19 PBT was 1% ahead of our expectations and current trading suggests it will continue to take market share in the growing food-on-the-go market. Greggs has many opportunities to accelerate growth in the medium term: more and larger stores; the shift from a single channel to multichannel; further product innovation; and more investment in its supply chain, funded by strong cash generation. There is near-term risk, as with the sector in general, if the coronavirus results in people staying away from public places. Our PBT forecast for FY20 increases by 2% and our DCF-based valuation increases by c 4% to 2,188p.

Greggs’ FY19 PBT was 1% ahead of our expectations and current trading suggests it will continue to take market share in the growing food-on-the-go market. Greggs has many opportunities to accelerate growth in the medium term: more and larger stores; the shift from a single channel to multichannel; further product innovation; and more investment in its supply chain, funded by strong cash generation. There is near-term risk, as with the sector in general, if the coronavirus results in people staying away from public places. Our PBT forecast for FY20 increases by 2% and our DCF-based valuation increases by c 4% to 2,188p.

United Kingdom

Greggs plc retails sandwiches, savories, and other bakery-related products. The Company focuses on takeaway food and catering.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Greggs PLC (GRG LN)

Monde Nissin IPO Initiation: Instant Karma

Monde Nissin will launch pre-marketing for an IPO to raise up to PHP63 billion ($1.3 billion) in April, according to press reports. Overall, we...

Arun George

Greggs - Learning to manage

Greggs’ Q320 trading update shows a recovery in sales in line with our expectations. There has been good progress: getting all infrastructure up...

Edison Investment Research

Greggs - Gradual recovery expected

Greggs’ interim results were heavily affected by the estate closure for the majority of Q220, due to COVID-19. The key takeaways are that operating...

Edison Investment Research

Greggs - Protecting employees and customers

COVID-19 will have an uncertain but important impact on Greggs' profitability in FY20. The profit and cash flow impact of lost sales will be...

Edison Investment Research

Greggs - Very tasty

Greggs’ FY19 PBT was 1% ahead of our expectations and current trading suggests it will continue to take market share in the growing food-on-the-go...

Edison Investment Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)