Leading International Investment Research, Edison Investment Research

Edison Investment Research

Leading International Investment Research

Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisors and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting.

Equity Bottom-Up

Greggs (GRG) enjoyed a stronger-than-expected end to FY23 with sales ahead of our estimates and consensus forecasts, enabling GRG to meet its profit expectations for the year. GRG’s strong revenue growth and an improved profit performance in FY23 means it has fared better than many other consumer-facing names during the year. With lower inflationary pressures, the company enters FY24 in a better place with respect to its selling price versus cost inflation than at the start of FY23, when it was still playing catch-up to the prior and ongoing rapid increases in input costs.

Greggs (GRG) enjoyed a stronger-than-expected end to FY23 with sales ahead of our estimates and consensus forecasts, enabling GRG to meet its profit expectations for the year. GRG’s strong revenue growth and an improved profit performance in FY23 means it has fared better than many other consumer-facing names during the year. With lower inflationary pressures, the company enters FY24 in a better place with respect to its selling price versus cost inflation than at the start of FY23, when it was still playing catch-up to the prior and ongoing rapid increases in input costs.

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to believe a 1-4-month pullback/consolidation is ongoing. Important supports have been violated, including $110 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and $41 on MSCI EM (EEM-US).</li>
<li>We're shifting our outlook to neutral on $ACWI after being bullish since early-November 2023. Major price breakdowns combined with deteriorating market dynamics have increased the odds of a topping pattern.</li>
<li>Also downgrading Japan to market weight. 7/25/24 we said "Japan's TOPIX breaking below 2800-2815 is near-term bearish, suggests it could pull back to its long-term uptrend, or worse."</li>
</ul>


We continue to believe a 1-4-month pullback/consolidation is ongoing. Important supports have been violated, including $110 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and $41 on MSCI EM (EEM-US).
We're shifting our outlook to neutral on $ACWI after being bullish since early-November 2023. Major price breakdowns combined with deteriorating market dynamics have increased the odds of a topping pattern.
Also downgrading Japan to market weight. 7/25/24 we said "Japan's TOPIX breaking below 2800-2815 is near-term bearish, suggests it could pull back to its long-term uptrend, or worse."


Downgrading Japan; Stay Defensive; Downgrading Outlook on Global Equities $ACWI to Neutral

Greggs continues to generate premium sales growth through a combination of volume, including market share gains as distribution increases, and price growth. The strength of underlying trading in Q323 is highlighted by management’s confirmation of consensus FY23 PBT expectations despite the addition of new costs for expanding the company’s delivery offer to a second platform and a slight delay in some store openings from the end of the year into FY24.

Greggs continues to generate premium sales growth through a combination of volume, including market share gains as distribution increases, and price growth. The strength of underlying trading in Q323 is highlighted by management’s confirmation of consensus FY23 PBT expectations despite the addition of new costs for expanding the company’s delivery offer to a second platform and a slight delay in some store openings from the end of the year into FY24.

Greggs - FY23 profit expectations reiterated

Greggs’ H123 results showed continued strong revenue growth, indicating good progress across the majority of its multi-year initiatives to drive revenue growth. Profitability continued to be hampered by input cost inflation as well as investment in the cost base to drive the expected revenue growth. A more favourable outlook for underlying cost inflation in FY23 than previously should be welcomed. We have slightly increased our estimates to reflect the strong growth in H123 and higher interest rates on cash deposits.

Greggs’ H123 results showed continued strong revenue growth, indicating good progress across the majority of its multi-year initiatives to drive revenue growth. Profitability continued to be hampered by input cost inflation as well as investment in the cost base to drive the expected revenue growth. A more favourable outlook for underlying cost inflation in FY23 than previously should be welcomed. We have slightly increased our estimates to reflect the strong growth in H123 and higher interest rates on cash deposits.

Greggs - Improving outlook for costs in FY23

Greggs’ strong sales performance in the first 19 weeks of the year is in line with management’s expectations and therefore its profit expectations for the year are unchanged, as are our forecasts. Greggs continues to benefit from underlying volume growth despite the squeeze on household budgets and high industry-wide selling price inflation, which is testament to its ongoing product innovation and initiatives to drive growth. Our discounted cash flow (DCF)-based valuation of £30.50/share is unchanged.

Greggs’ strong sales performance in the first 19 weeks of the year is in line with management’s expectations and therefore its profit expectations for the year are unchanged, as are our forecasts. Greggs continues to benefit from underlying volume growth despite the squeeze on household budgets and high industry-wide selling price inflation, which is testament to its ongoing product innovation and initiatives to drive growth. Our discounted cash flow (DCF)-based valuation of £30.50/share is unchanged.

Greggs - Continuation of strong trading in FY23

United Kingdom

Greggs plc retails sandwiches, savories, and other bakery-related products. The Company focuses on takeaway food and catering.

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Greggs PLC (GRG LN)

Greggs - A strong finish to FY23

Greggs (GRG) enjoyed a stronger-than-expected end to FY23 with sales ahead of our estimates and consensus forecasts, enabling GRG to meet its...

Edison Investment Research

Downgrading Japan; Stay Defensive; Downgrading Outlook on Global Equities $ACWI to Neutral

Downgrading Japan TOPIX, Nikkei; Stay Defensive; Downgrading Outlook on Global Equities $ACWI $EEM to Neutral; Many Risk-Off Signals increase odds...

Vermilion Research

Greggs - FY23 profit expectations reiterated

Greggs continues to generate premium sales growth through a combination of volume, including market share gains as distribution increases, and...

Edison Investment Research

Greggs - Improving outlook for costs in FY23

Greggs’ H123 results showed continued strong revenue growth, indicating good progress across the majority of its multi-year initiatives to drive...

Edison Investment Research

Greggs - Continuation of strong trading in FY23

Greggs’ strong sales performance in the first 19 weeks of the year is in line with management’s expectations and therefore its profit expectations...

Edison Investment Research

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