Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

Orient Overseas International / Event-Driven

<p>Hang Seng Indexes Company (HSIL) reviews the constituents of the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) on a half yearly basis in March and September with data cut-off dates as of the end of December and June.</p><p>The December review will see the inclusion of stocks that were newly listed from 1 July to 30 September and meet the criteria for joining the index.</p><p>We expect <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/brii-biosciences" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33014:1" rel="noopener">Brii Biosciences (2137 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/helen-s-international-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34113:1" rel="noopener">Helen's International Holdings (9869 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/medlive-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32985:1" rel="noopener">Medlive Technology (2192 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keymed-biosciences-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33011:1" rel="noopener">Keymed Biosciences Inc (2162 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sce-intelligent-commercial-management" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33500:1" rel="noopener">SCE Intelligent Commercial Management (606 HK)</a> to be included in the index at the close of trading on 3 December.</p><p>For the regular rebalance in March 2022, we see 17 potential inclusions to the index and 4 potential deletions. There are 4 stocks that are close adds and 5 that are close deletes.</p><div><p>Although there are no assets indexed to the HSCI, the index forms the basis of stocks that are eligible for Southbound Stock Connect. Stocks that are included in the HSCI and subsequently included in the Stock Connect program get inflows from mainland investors. There is pre-positioning in the stocks in the lead up to the announcement and prior to the stocks being open for purchase by mainland investors.</p></div>

Hang Seng Indexes Company (HSIL) reviews the constituents of the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) on a half yearly basis in March and September with data cut-off dates as of the end of December and June.The December review will see the inclusion of stocks that were newly listed from 1 July to 30 September and meet the criteria for joining the index.We expect Brii Biosciences (2137 HK), Helen's International Holdings (9869 HK), Medlive Technology (2192 HK), Keymed Biosciences Inc (2162 HK) and SCE Intelligent Commercial Management (606 HK) to be included in the index at the close of trading on 3 December.For the regular rebalance in March 2022, we see 17 potential inclusions to the index and 4 potential deletions. There are 4 stocks that are close adds and 5 that are close deletes.Although there are no assets indexed to the HSCI, the index forms the basis of stocks that are eligible for Southbound Stock Connect. Stocks that are included in the HSCI and subsequently included in the Stock Connect program get inflows from mainland investors. There is pre-positioning in the stocks in the lead up to the announcement and prior to the stocks being open for purchase by mainland investors.

HSCI Index Rebalance and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in December and March

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>The Venerable David Webb just increased his position in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/analogue-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28661:1" rel="noopener">Analogue Holdings Ltd (1977 HK)</a> as the company is transforming from a traditional E&amp;M player into a smart city and high tech building management company that has won a contract from the HK Housing Authority. </p><div class="content-highlight"><p>The company is trading at a deep discount to its peers in various valuation multiples but with the amount of cash in the balance sheet, the ex-cash PER is even lower at 5.2x. It has a 5.5% dividend yield that is quite enviable for a small-cap with a growth prospect. What not to like?</p></div>

The Venerable David Webb just increased his position in Analogue Holdings Ltd (1977 HK) as the company is transforming from a traditional E&amp;M player into a smart city and high tech building management company that has won a contract from the HK Housing Authority. The company is trading at a deep discount to its peers in various valuation multiples but with the amount of cash in the balance sheet, the ex-cash PER is even lower at 5.2x. It has a 5.5% dividend yield that is quite enviable for a small-cap with a growth prospect. What not to like?

Analogue Holding (1977): From E&M to Smart City

APAC IPOs & Placements

Zhen Zhou, Toh

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Central China Management / Equity Capital Markets

<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/central-china-management-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33328:1" rel="noopener">Central China Management Company Limited (9982 HK)</a> (CCM) raised US$127m at HK$3 per share, close to the top end of its price range.</p></div><div><p>Central China Management (CCM) is a project management company for property development projects in China. The company manages property management projects on behalf of Project Owners throughout the entire property development process.</p></div><div>
<p>In this note, we will discuss deal dynamics and update valuation. </p>
<p>We covered the IPO earlier in:</p>
<ul><li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/central-china-management-ipo-concentrated-exposure" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:51692" rel="noopener">Central China Management (中原建业) IPO - Concentrated Exposure</a> </li></ul>
</div>

Central China Management Company Limited (9982 HK) (CCM) raised US$127m at HK$3 per share, close to the top end of its price range.Central China Management (CCM) is a project management company for property development projects in China. The company manages property management projects on behalf of Project Owners throughout the entire property development process.
In this note, we will discuss deal dynamics and update valuation. 
We covered the IPO earlier in:

Central China Management (中原建业) IPO - Concentrated Exposure 


Central China Management (中原建业) IPO Trading - Weak Demand

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/central-china-management-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33328:1" rel="noopener">Central China Management Company Limited (9982 HK)</a> (CCM) is looking to raise up to US$135m in its Hong Kong IPO.</p><p>Central China Management (CCM) is a project management company for property development projects in China. The company manages property management projects on behalf of Project Owners throughout the entire property development process.</p><p>In this note, we will look at company fundamentals, share our thoughts on the business, and discuss valuation.</p>

Central China Management Company Limited (9982 HK) (CCM) is looking to raise up to US$135m in its Hong Kong IPO.Central China Management (CCM) is a project management company for property development projects in China. The company manages property management projects on behalf of Project Owners throughout the entire property development process.In this note, we will look at company fundamentals, share our thoughts on the business, and discuss valuation.

Central China Management (中原建业) IPO - Concentrated Exposure

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Hygeia Healthcare Group / Equity Capital Markets

<div>
<p>For primary listings in Hong Kong, there are standard rules as to the lock-up duration. There are exceptions - lock-ups can be entered into and negotiated with underwriters, as is often the case for secondary listings.</p>
<p>There are other quirks such as specific lock-ups with respect to share incentive schemes, such as in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shenzhen-hepalink-pharmaceutical-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29142:1" rel="noopener">Shenzhen HepaLink Pharmaceutical (H) (9989 HK)</a>, which have their own unique lock-up period - although in this case, the % of shares out (0.31%) affected  is largely immaterial. </p>
</div>
<div>
<p>According to <a href="https://en-rules.hkex.com.hk/rulebook/1007-0" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Main Board Rule 10.07(1)</a> (or <a href="https://en-rules.hkex.com.hk/rulebook/1316a" target="_blank" rel="noopener">GEM rule 13.16A(1)</a>), if a person/group of persons is/are listed as the controlling shareholder(s) of the issuer's listing application, they must adhere to a 6-month lock-up from the date of listing.</p>
</div>
<div>
<p>For cornerstone investors, the following is often stated in the share offer document:</p>
</div>
<div>
<blockquote>
<p>Each of the Cornerstone Investors has agreed that it will not, whether directly or indirectly, at any time during the period of six months from and including the Listing Date (the “Lock-up Period”), dispose of any of the Offer Shares they have purchased pursuant to the relevant Cornerstone Investment Agreements, save for certain limited circumstances ... <br>Hepalink's <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2020/0624/2020062400097.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Global Offering Doc</a> (page 403)</p>
</blockquote>
</div>
<div>
<p>Every week in my <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/compose/insight/46538/Last%20Week%20in%20Event%20SPACE:%20Japan%20Post,%20JD.com,%20Toyota,%20NTT,%20Jardines,%20Indices/Exec.%20Orders,%20Tianneng.%20Read%20more:%20https:/skr.ma/vhr6W" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Event SPACE</a> wrap, I flag large moves (~10%) in CCASS holdings over the past week or so, moves that are often outside normal market transactions.  These may be indicative of share pledges.  Or potential takeovers. Or simply help understand volume swings. </p>
</div>
<div>
<p>Large movement(s) concerning recently listed companies are likely lock-up related. </p>
</div>
<div>
<p>This monthly insight looks at companies that have been listed for around six months, as a guide to when insiders/controlling shareholders are permitted to sell, potentially creating an overhang which could depress prices.</p>
<p>I've also constructed a chart highlighting the performance of IPOs leading up to their lock-up, and compared this to the HSI index. The results are interesting. Spoiler - recent IPOs underperform. </p>
</div>
<div>
<p>A summary of Main Board listings in 2020 is also attached at the bottom of this insight.</p>
<p>More below the fold.</p>
</div>


For primary listings in Hong Kong, there are standard rules as to the lock-up duration. There are exceptions - lock-ups can be entered into and negotiated with underwriters, as is often the case for secondary listings.
There are other quirks such as specific lock-ups with respect to share incentive schemes, such as in Shenzhen HepaLink Pharmaceutical (H) (9989 HK), which have their own unique lock-up period - although in this case, the % of shares out (0.31%) affected  is largely immaterial. 


According to Main Board Rule 10.07(1) (or GEM rule 13.16A(1)), if a person/group of persons is/are listed as the controlling shareholder(s) of the issuer's listing application, they must adhere to a 6-month lock-up from the date of listing.


For cornerstone investors, the following is often stated in the share offer document:



Each of the Cornerstone Investors has agreed that it will not, whether directly or indirectly, at any time during the period of six months from and including the Listing Date (the “Lock-up Period”), dispose of any of the Offer Shares they have purchased pursuant to the relevant Cornerstone Investment Agreements, save for certain limited circumstances ...  Hepalink's Global Offering Doc (page 403)



Every week in my Event SPACE wrap, I flag large moves (~10%) in CCASS holdings over the past week or so, moves that are often outside normal market transactions.  These may be indicative of share pledges.  Or potential takeovers. Or simply help understand volume swings. 


Large movement(s) concerning recently listed companies are likely lock-up related. 


This monthly insight looks at companies that have been listed for around six months, as a guide to when insiders/controlling shareholders are permitted to sell, potentially creating an overhang which could depress prices.
I've also constructed a chart highlighting the performance of IPOs leading up to their lock-up, and compared this to the HSI index. The results are interesting. Spoiler - recent IPOs underperform. 


A summary of Main Board listings in 2020 is also attached at the bottom of this insight.
More below the fold.


Hong Kong IPOs: Lock-Up Expiries (December 2020 Edition)

China

GTMH is a project management company in China with presence in 84 cities across 25 provinces, municipalities, and autonomous regions. It was the largest project management company in China in terms of accumulated contracted GFA between 2016 to 2018.


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GreenTown Management Holdings (9979 HK)

HSCI Index Rebalance and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in December and March

There could be 5 adds to the HSCI in December. In March, there could be 17 adds and 4 deletes. There will be pre-positioning on the inclusions...

Brian Freitas

Analogue Holding (1977): From E&M to Smart City

The company is trading at a deep discount to its peers' multiples but the ex-cash PER is even lower at 5.2x. It has a 5.5% dvd yield that is quite...

Henry Soediarko

Central China Management (中原建业) IPO Trading - Weak Demand

Central China Management Company Limited (9982 HK) (CCM) raised US$127m at HK$3 per share, close to the top end of its price range

Zhen Zhou, Toh

Central China Management (中原建业) IPO - Concentrated Exposure

Central China Management Company Limited (9982 HK) (CCM) is looking to raise up to US$135m in its Hong Kong IPO. CCM is a project management...

Zhen Zhou, Toh

Hong Kong IPOs: Lock-Up Expiries (December 2020 Edition)

There exist the "moral hazard" around the expiry of lock-up periods. In 2020, IPO's have on average underperformed the HSI heading into the lock...

David Blennerhassett

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