Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The upcoming rebalance of the MVIS Australia A-REIT Index will be implemented at the close on 17 March. There are no constituent changes, but there are float and capping changes.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 1.8% resulting in a one-way trade of A$11.1m. There is limited impact on the index constituents.</li>
<li>The largest inflows are on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stockland" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:661:1" rel="noopener">Stockland</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/homeco-daily-needs-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33526:1" rel="noopener">HomeCo Daily Needs REIT</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gpt-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:168:1" rel="noopener">Gpt Group</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/charter-hall-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5593:1" rel="noopener">Charter Hall</a>, while the largest outflows are on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goodman-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:959:1" rel="noopener">Goodman Group</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/federation-centres" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:335:1" rel="noopener">Vicinity Centres</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dexus" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:403:1" rel="noopener">Dexus Property</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/scentre-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9538:1" rel="noopener">Scentre Group</a>.</li>
</ul>


The upcoming rebalance of the MVIS Australia A-REIT Index will be implemented at the close on 17 March. There are no constituent changes, but there are float and capping changes.
Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 1.8% resulting in a one-way trade of A$11.1m. There is limited impact on the index constituents.
The largest inflows are on Stockland, HomeCo Daily Needs REIT, Gpt Group and Charter Hall, while the largest outflows are on Goodman Group, Vicinity Centres, Dexus Property and Scentre Group.


MVIS Australia A-REITs Index Rebalance:  Float/Capping Changes

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>The S&amp;P DJI Index team announced the replacement for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ausnet-services" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10293:1" rel="noopener">Ausnet Services (AST AU)</a> when it is deleted from the S&amp;P/ASX200 Friday at the close: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arena-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12209:1" rel="noopener">Arena Reit (ARF AU)</a> </li>
<li>There are other changes to sub-indices which are not publicly announced but which should align with previous analysis</li>
<li>This insight provides estimates for the index events Friday and ways to play them.</li>
</ul>


The S&amp;P DJI Index team announced the replacement for Ausnet Services (AST AU) when it is deleted from the S&amp;P/ASX200 Friday at the close: Arena Reit (ARF AU) 
There are other changes to sub-indices which are not publicly announced but which should align with previous analysis
This insight provides estimates for the index events Friday and ways to play them.


Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Transurban Group / Equity Capital Markets

Over the past two weeks, Australia and New Zealand have collectively seen over ten placements/entitlement offerings, of which we have covered nine. 
Along with the pick-up in deal activity we have also been fielding more questions about which other companies could come to the market. In this insight, we aim to narrow the list down.

Over the past two weeks, Australia and New Zealand have collectively seen over ten placements/entitlement offerings, of which we have covered nine. 
Along with the pick-up in deal activity we have also been fielding more questions about which other companies could come to the market. In this insight, we aim to narrow the list down.

Australia and New Zealand Candidates for Placement

Cromwell Property / Equity Capital Markets

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cromwell-property-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2780:1" rel="noopener">Cromwell Property (CMW AU)</a> plans to raise US$260m (A$375m) in order to pursue over A$1bn of identified acquisition opportunities across Australia and Europe, as per the company. As per our back of the envelope calculations, given the large dilution, the company would have to announce acquisiton of at least A$1.1bn+ in order to just mantain its earnings.This is the third fund raising by an Australian property group that we have covered since May 2019. The other two deals did reasonably ok. However, both were done to part fund acquisitions which were announced along with the placement. Hence, this deal is not exactly comparable. The deal scores well on our framework owing to its track record, although performance of the stock in its past deals has been mixed.

Cromwell Property (CMW AU) plans to raise US$260m (A$375m) in order to pursue over A$1bn of identified acquisition opportunities across Australia and Europe, as per the company. As per our back of the envelope calculations, given the large dilution, the company would have to announce acquisiton of at least A$1.1bn+ in order to just mantain its earnings.This is the third fund raising by an Australian property group that we have covered since May 2019. The other two deals did reasonably ok. However, both were done to part fund acquisitions which were announced along with the placement. Hence, this deal is not exactly comparable. The deal scores well on our framework owing to its track record, although performance of the stock in its past deals has been mixed. 

Cromwell Property Placement - Trickier than Others - Past Deals Have Been Mixed

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gpt-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:168:1">Gpt Group (GPT AU)</a> plans to raise up to US$550m (A$800m) in order to funds its purchase of 25% interest in Darling Park 1 &amp; 2 office complex and Cockle Bay Wharf, Sydney. The company already owns a stake in the asset through its wholesale office fund and hence, this is a low risk acquisition. However, the fact that its raising more equity that the acquisition amount and paying down some debt might point towards valuation being stretched. The deal scores a mixed score on our framework.

Gpt Group (GPT AU) plans to raise up to US$550m (A$800m) in order to funds its purchase of 25% interest in Darling Park 1 &amp; 2 office complex and Cockle Bay Wharf, Sydney. The company already owns a stake in the asset through its wholesale office fund and hence, this is a low risk acquisition. However, the fact that its raising more equity that the acquisition amount and paying down some debt might point towards valuation being stretched. The deal scores a mixed score on our framework. 

GPT Group Placement - Familiar Asset but Share Price Looks a Bit Stretched

Australia

GPT Group is an active owner and manager of a diversified portfolio of Australian retail, office and industrial property assets. The Group's property portfolio include the MLC Centre, Australia Square, Rouse Hill Town Centre and Melbourne Central.

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Gpt Group (GPT AU)

MVIS Australia A-REITs Index Rebalance: Float/Capping Changes

There are no constituent changes in March but there are float & capping changes. Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 1.8% resulting in a...

Brian Freitas

S&P/ASX200 - Ausnet OUT, Arena REIT IN

The S&P/ASX 200 will see Ausnet replaced by Arena REIT on 4 Feb. This is widely expected/predicted and Arena has outperformed, but it is a lot of...

Travis Lundy

Australia and New Zealand Candidates for Placement

Over the past two weeks, Australia and New Zealand have collectively seen over ten placements/entitlement offerings, of which we have covered...

Sumeet Singh

Cromwell Property Placement - Trickier than Others - Past Deals Have Been Mixed

Cromwell Property (CMW AU) plans to raise US$260m (A$375m) in order to pursue over A$1bn of identified acquisition opportunities across Australia...

Sumeet Singh

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

MVIS Australia A-REITs Index Rebalance: Float/Capping Changes

There are no constituent changes in March but there are float & capping changes. Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 1.8% resulting in a...

Brian Freitas

S&P/ASX200 - Ausnet OUT, Arena REIT IN

The S&P/ASX 200 will see Ausnet replaced by Arena REIT on 4 Feb. This is widely expected/predicted and Arena has outperformed, but it is a lot of...

Travis Lundy

Australia and New Zealand Candidates for Placement

Over the past two weeks, Australia and New Zealand have collectively seen over ten placements/entitlement offerings, of which we have covered...

Sumeet Singh

Cromwell Property Placement - Trickier than Others - Past Deals Have Been Mixed

Cromwell Property (CMW AU) plans to raise US$260m (A$375m) in order to pursue over A$1bn of identified acquisition opportunities across Australia...

Sumeet Singh

GPT Group Placement - Familiar Asset but Share Price Looks a Bit Stretched

Gpt Group (GPT AU) plans to raise up to US$550m (A$800m) in order to funds its purchase of 25% interest in Darling Park 1 & 2 office complex...

Sumeet Singh